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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Just looked through the extended GEFS 6z and there are quite a few cold / blocked one's even by 11th March..in the meantime, next week looks incredible if you're a coldie!:cold-emoji::)

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's Nirvana for coldies next week with cross model support for a major freeze, especially away from the far north and west..further east and south expect plenty of snow both in the form of showers and more persistent snow probably spreading up across the south later next week but even the areas that don't see much snow would also be very cold with severe frosts..some extremely low minima over the snow fields and severe wind chill further south due to the strong Easterly winds..the GEFS / ECM mean next week look absolutely incredible for the end of winter / early spring..it won't feel like spring through early to hopefully mid march!:):cold-emoji::D

Nirvanania? :)

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BRAEU_84.gif

The more recent fax for Monday lunch time has the SW to the north seemingly aiming more for the central or even eastern side of UK, and the 528 dam line has pushed further west a little faster.  What would be the effect of this

SW re adjusting eastwards, would it bring a spell of snow from Aberdeen down to Weymouth or in that general direction. ?

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The models look great, some people are going to see some serious snowfall. I have never seen charts like it!

545465.thumb.jpg.6e38e5de79ce0a0fa313dc959913ee63.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Nirvanania? :)

Yeah, that as well..:D..looking forward to the 12z following the generally stellar output so far today:cold-emoji:

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5 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The models look great, some people are going to see some serious snowfall. I have never seen charts like it!

545465.thumb.jpg.6e38e5de79ce0a0fa313dc959913ee63.jpg

Thing is, how are we in West Central-ish Scotland going to do? I've seen different models/charts which seem to suggest fairly poorly.

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Anyway - models !

ICON time

its had a rough few runs now going with the shortwave dropping into the ridge - still on the table btw 

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Well here we go on this evenings runs from the icon to the mighty ecm. What more upgrades have they in store for us. Only one way to find out. Here we go strap yourself in guys and girls. :yahoo:

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21 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The models look great, some people are going to see some serious snowfall. I have never seen charts like it!

545465.thumb.jpg.6e38e5de79ce0a0fa313dc959913ee63.jpg

Love it....

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Only 42 hours away before the -5 Line makes a prolonged stay in the UK...

 

01855223-BC84-4FDE-94BC-4866E70023C1.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Looks like an upgrade so far...more intense cold pool edging closer conpared to 06z. And a tad sooner too...

Few hours quicker but seems to have stuck at the critical period re the shortwave 

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Amazing! just hope low to S can get north enough

UW144-7.GIF?23-06UW144-21.GIF?23-06

This mornings :) but heck lets  use and compare for the next upgrade when the 12Z comes out in about 30 mins :)

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Few hours quicker but seems to have stuck at the critical period re the shortwave 

I wouldnt worry too much..im sure with the energy we have from w to e itll suck the -15 over. I noticed -20 looks more organised and larger on this run

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-12 850's into EA & the SE on Sunday night/Monday morning 

 

E90E23DC-FCB4-4447-9E78-0651396E9AFF-2835-00000310882B35E9.png

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ICON looks very much of an upgrade re the cold pool to our East. Fantastic stuff! Deeper and gets to us sooner!

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