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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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The GFS 06Z...OMFG......that’s all I’m going to say! 

Edited by Chris.R

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Remember THAT ECM a few years ago?  I don't have an archived chart to hand, but damn the current output must be strikingly similar, and at short range too!

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Look at that long-draw easterly! Hubba.

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GFS @114hrs.....to me a better angle/depth of WAA up into E.Greenland/Svalbard region. Looking peachy....

Edited by Southender
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12z Icon showing the precipitation heading in from the east

tempresult_fbt5.gif

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That is one crazy ICON run. At 180hr there is pocket of -28C 850hPa air almost within touching distance of the BI!

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Ok I don’t have enough superlatives for this 144 chart UKMO

Just stunning! It makes all these years of model watching worth while! 

2B79CC0F-2D07-42DD-A921-2AC64798431A.thumb.gif.81763b1992d5f7ef07ab35a1ebec6d1c.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z Icon showing the precipitation heading in from the east

tempresult_fbt5.gif

Looks fairly dry with a few scattered snow showers. 

Albeit it does not take into account convection. 

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4 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

#wheredidyoulearntospeaklikethat?! 😂

Love ya mike- 😂😂😂

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Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO is basically pornography. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Some concern still on the high inflating to push PPN too far south for most of the country. Would be happier with a northwards correction quickly after this at 144 from the UKMO.

UW144-21_nma9.GIF

Edited by ukpaul
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Best get the trusty Argos card out for for ice scraping on Monday morning... :cold:

 

12_135_ukthickness850.png

article-2099435-11AA6A4F000005DC-481_634x460.jpg

Edited by Steel City Skies
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1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

Some concern still on the high inflating to push PPN too far south for most of the country. Would be happier with a northwards correction quickly after that from the UKMO.

UW144-21_nma9.GIF

The high is being pushed west, not sure it would be an issue a few hours later!

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UKMO/GFS/GEM at day 5

UW120-21.GIF?20-17   gfs-0-120.png?12   gem-0-120.png?12

GFS and UKMO look fairly similar with the cold air streaming in from the east. The GEM really blows up the low heights to our east which tends result in the cold air barreling over itself until it eventually reaches the UK.

Day 6

UW144-21.GIF?20-17   gfs-0-144.png?12   gem-0-144.png?12

Again slight differences between the UKMO and GFS but roughly the same idea, the GEM again tending to complicate matters with that deep cold pool and we end up later on under a complex cold trough.

The GFS and UKMO are fantastic this afternoon with that easterly fairly clean and controlled meaning several days likely of bitter winds from Siberia before we look possibly to the north to continue the cold. The GEM is still good with plenty of snow moving in under those deep low heights and again retrogression is the theme later on.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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UKMO has bitter air moving into the east by Sunday lunchtime!

 

24C1FB56-9FFF-4939-8632-EF3FED1D8EE8.gif

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Well we have the 3 models so far all on the same hymn sheet with deep cold arriving sometime between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. 

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS T144 😍

IMG_1670.PNG

Lol that looks like Mr Burns out of the Simpsons.......seriously though -16’s about to cross the North Sea :) 

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Well that's another stunning 12z set in the bag in the reliable. How many more do we need before we can break the silence to family and friends. Fun and games begin Sunday afternoon/eve :friends:

Edited by Southender

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1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

Some concern still on the high inflating to push PPN too far south for most of the country. Would be happier with a northwards correction quickly after that from the UKMO.

UW144-21_nma9.GIF

Precipitation at this point probably limited to The Wash and further south, but there's plenty of instability and cold upstream for T168/T192.

GFS 12Z now not far away from the ECM 00Z

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I need this in my life..(coldie)...

Quite simply majestic...

 

gfsnh-0-150.png

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8 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Looks very dry to me - I know these things are pants mind

I do notice the streamer going through the Thames- November-Dec 2010 again?😉

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      A fresh model thread as we enter a new phase of weather post-beast. 
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      A busy spell coming up, as the beast from the east arrives.
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