Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

No smelly shortwaves to worry about so far :rofl:

Previous letdowns in the model output leave a mental scar :rofl:

Surely no going back now...

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

So the things to watch for as the 12’s start to roll out...

Short term: Continuity of the heights linking up and rising as per before. Pretty sure this is nailed at this stage!

No pesky short waves rearing their ugly faces!

And later when ECM comes out, that none of that cluster that appeared in the EPS ON THE 00z, appear in the op, and preferably in a perfect world, are all gone when the eps come out later!

Eyes down folks...

Adding to this, I think also its worth noting the heights over the UK. The GFS had most of UK at or above 1030. ideally we want it a little lower (as per ECM). Not that GFS is bad!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup I agree Iberia is unquestionably too far south but its something to be wary of. For reference here is the ECM clusters

image.thumb.png.9b8a2b3ca60bd577427c8d14c7061642.png

The northerly cluster 2 resembles this evolution. Remember the 00z yesterday. Aside from that the cold pool could still just be focused on the SE, one or two members show this.

Personally I think we would be really unlucky if things didn't materialise, especially given the size of the cold pool. The ensemble swing of February 2009 still lingers on my mind though.

I know it was me that started a panic over ECM cluster 2 but it isn't quite as bad as is being made out - if you look at the progression from T192 to T216 and then T240, you can clearly see the cold is still moving in from the continent, just not quite that direct hit - probably staying dry in the north and west. Coldies would have bitten your arm off for this cluster at any time since 2013!!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_216.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_240.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very good ICON evolution. Again a little slower but still...

icon-0-147.png?20-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I certainly haven't seen anything within the output that suggests any kind of backtrack as yet.

I think it was BA that said the 850's will get watered down as we get nearer the time but I expect there is more truth to that when dealing with a PM flow and modification rather than a continental flow.

 

 

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

No smelly shortwaves to worry about so far :rofl:

Previous letdowns in the model output leave a mental scar :rofl:

Surely no going back now...

Yep looking identical to the excellent 6z (so far). Perhaps another run for the archives coming up :)

Edited by Steel City Skies

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beast!!!...

Demonic is the wording!!..

Expansion of the flow is overwellming!!!

gfsnh-1-78.png

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Very good ICON evolution. Again a little slower but still...

icon-0-147.png?20-12

Itr's quicker than the 0z and there is also some -28 air out east

icon-1-162.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

850's will get watered down

What if it’s the opposite and being under modelled 😂

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

06z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO 96 very nice 👌

72F2CE14-2404-44B9-8672-28895B70C146.thumb.gif.a4fa8a02c47b6bbc543c2dc63a2ba754.gif

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

I think that's down to the high being 15mb higher! It's in the same place.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Just looks like a stronger high and a touch North to me ?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Unless you've put those charts the wrong way round it looks like the high is slightly further north on the 12z?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Eh? The high looks further North to me, look around Iceland, core of heights further North.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well one down on the 12z  Icon is a upgrade in my opinion compared to its previous run  onto the next  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

Agreed, the 12z is a direct Easterly flow. Gonna be bitter next week!:cold:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

What if it’s the opposite and being under modelled 😂

I realise you have attributed a false quote to me as a joke but please don't because it will get lost in translation.

Can you correct it please.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are likely to gain -again-..

Via iberian collapse and height align...

 Core-cold has its eyes on uk- and ample exactions are firmly in our favour.

Cold pooling allowed-to gain on expanse..

And be positively shunted westward!!

# colder #inflow

gfs-0-90.png

gfs-1-90.png

Screenshot_2018-02-20-15-57-06.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

I'm following the 1020 line over the UK 00z it got down to around north Wales 12z it is down to South Wales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh that’s gorgeous UKMO +120

01193C2D-5F8B-49D6-9EBF-BA628979BF0C.thumb.gif.273cf4314f1adab9e13275ae45c0b2e0.gif

Game very much on with that chart :air_kiss:

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×