Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup I agree Iberia is unquestionably too far south but its something to be wary of. For reference here is the ECM clusters

image.thumb.png.9b8a2b3ca60bd577427c8d14c7061642.png

The northerly cluster 2 resembles this evolution. Remember the 00z yesterday. Aside from that the cold pool could still just be focused on the SE, one or two members show this.

Personally I think we would be really unlucky if things didn't materialise, especially given the size of the cold pool. The ensemble swing of February 2009 still lingers on my mind though.

But isn't that Northerly Cluster 192 hours away AKA after the Cold has already hit?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

But isn't that Northerly Cluster 192 hours away AKA after the Cold has already hit?

Perhaps! I just don't want any hiccups to come along and I don't like the Finnish low, anyway I'm just a very cautious person lol. I think we are almost there and hopefully the 12z will eliminate any lingering fears.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I know this is the model thread - but have to challenge you on this: where in the MetO forecast does it suggest a move south? I cant see it. They have tweaked the text at lunchtime today to be a bit more region specific (the SW gets a mention!!) but nothing else.

In terms of model support for a move south - also don't really see it. This excellent chart for 100hpa winds from Hannah Attard shows very clearly the latitude of the block and the trough slamming through the UK.

100_nh_31.png

 

All good.

See my follow up- but briefly, yes I think most things are looking great, but I think the Met Office will be cautious until solutions such as those found in Cluster 2 disappear. So I think they are about as confident as the ECM ensembles are about the upcoming beasterly (so around 70%). I don't think you are challenging me though, since I almost wholly agree with your posts!! Just hope everything falls into place!

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Has there been a comparable pattern like this current one where the output has just evaporated in the past ? Was ‘that ecm’ after a SSW ? 

The 2012 fiasco is the one that sticks in my mind, where if i recall correctly the switch around at t96 was just astonishing, especially the ECM which i believe had nearly full ens member support?  However, i don't think the MetO was fully on board in that instance (only goes t120) and on the previous thread some alluded to that change in output being due to significant solar weather impacts on the strat - NB i've no idea if that's true!  Don't believe a SSW was involved in that instance.

Edited by swebby
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, kev238 said:

Well I must be missing something with all this talk of backtracks .

From what I can see the GFS 6z was one of coldest and snowiest I have ever seen . Yes the deep cold lands on our shores about 12-18 hrs later but that is hardly a backtrack

 

 

I think it is fair to say that this is indeed correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I know this is the model thread - but have to challenge you on this: where in the MetO forecast does it suggest a move south? I cant see it. They have tweaked the text at lunchtime today to be a bit more region specific (the SW gets a mention!!) but nothing else.

In terms of model support for a move south - also don't really see it. This excellent chart for 100hpa winds from Hannah Attard shows very clearly the latitude of the block and the trough slamming through the UK.

100_nh_31.png

 

All good.

One question on this, I'm still trying to try to understand the reasons why this block sets up where it does - is the Hannah Attard plot that you quote not just itself an model output from a single GFS run?  So how does it give predictability for future runs, or are you saying that as this is at 100hPa the model will have a better handle on this at 7 days than it does for the surface weather?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the things to watch for as the 12’s start to roll out...

Short term: Continuity of the heights linking up and rising as per before. Pretty sure this is nailed at this stage!

No pesky short waves rearing their ugly faces!

And later when ECM comes out, that none of that cluster that appeared in the EPS ON THE 00z, appear in the op, and preferably in a perfect world, are all gone when the eps come out later!

Eyes down folks...

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One question on this, I'm still trying to try to understand the reasons why this block sets up where it does - is the Hannah Attard plot that you quote not just itself an model output from a single GFS run?  So how does it give predictability for future runs, or are you saying that as this is at 100hPa the model will have a better handle on this at 7 days than it does for the surface weather?

It is a single run, but stratospheric modelling is more accurate... and so we can get a better handle on the upper pattern and the forcing on what happens below. Of course there are 2 types of forcing - one that upwells from below, and one that downwells from above. A point of debate sometimes as to whether the trop impacts the strat or the strat impacts the trop - it can work either way to be honest... but in this case what we have is a reversal in the strat that is downwelling to affect the trop (and has done so quickly) so strat forecasts provide guidance as to the impact lower down.

That one single run is no guarantee that the trop will follow suit as a perfect match... but it is one of a long line of signals all pointing in the same direction now.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JFF  :rofl: seriously you have no idea how long it took to find a mild solution in any model

gens-7-0-348.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

JFF  :rofl: seriously you have no idea how long it took to find a mild solution in any model

gens-7-0-348.png

Bit odd if u ask me why u would look for a rogue mild chart tbh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we have a new thread please, this ones far too negative. All models on board, SSW isn't going to suddenly dissapear oh and then we have these 😅

Snow depth at t384

S80220-15220740.jpg

Snow depth at t240

S80220-15311018.jpg

Snow depth in Newcastle at t?

S80220-14421292.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, markw2680 said:

Bit odd if u ask me why u would look for a rogue mild chart tbh

Pretty sure he was posting it as a joke to reiterate how hard it is to find a mild chart at the moment.

The anticipation is building for the 12z's, let's hope for no hiccups. (I personally can't see any forthcoming)

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think some are worrying about small features that pop up in the models, which, physically won’t have much effect on the general well documented/agreed on momentum westwards of the deep cold as @Catacol has already highlighted. A small surface feature cannot alter the upper pattern and the jet, it’s normally the upper pattern and associated jet that dictates the movement of surface features.

 The movement westwards of the deep cold is being driven partly/mostly by the remnants of the daughter vortex that formed from the split of the SPV by the SSW beginning of last week, which dropped into NE Europe / NW Russia and will now move west over Europe and is coupled with deep cold pool moving west in the troposphere.

This weakening strat vortex can be seen on the 2PVU loop below (in blue) on GFS tropopause (where trop meets strat) pressure charts, dropping south over NE Europe then moving west. This is in turn causing the jet stream to push SW across Europe – helping pull the cold air west and southwest. A small surface low or ‘shortwave’ as some like to call it won’t stop this momentum.

5a8c3910bec6a_2PVUloop.thumb.gif.fa6c9eba76ad0aa78aaccd225d28e569.gif <--- click to animate

Talking of the JET :hi:

tempresultnur8_mini.png

Edited by winterof79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Pretty sure he was posting it as a joke to reiterate how hard it is to find a mild chart at the moment.

The anticipation is building for the 12z's, let's hope for no hiccups. (I personally can't see any forthcoming)

Lol fair enough I misread it 😭

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

JFF  :rofl: seriously you have no idea how long it took to find a mild solution in any model

gens-7-0-348.png

Why would you do that :nonono: that’s not funny sir, don’t give up your Day job :acute:

ICON steady!

D7CC3F9B-3BB7-4A5A-AECD-A73AB7538F8F.thumb.png.04ed1ac1fe89f3b15bc2b760e2462a3c.pngD5CF9A0C-8236-460C-9A4B-B45197CD99E0.thumb.png.d85000d49c1a617b5b0f2742a88b6a8b.png

Incoming 

D569700F-6262-4DC3-9C5C-F01A68B7036E.thumb.png.76302122a415a23a151e01b26e60a70b.png

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing to think the building blocks for this (the high and cold pool being in place) are only some 36 hours away.

Edited by Duncan McAlister

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Minor feature develops..

Are a sure cause for a major inflow..

As exactions of flow are aligned..

Its like farting in the bath..

Smells at first...but then the bubbles clear..

Horrid way 2 relay it... but simple-..and honest!!!!!

Screenshot_2018-02-20-15-38-31.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

12 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Bit odd if u ask me why u would look for a rogue mild chart tbh

JFF (Just for fun)charts are normally looked at when very unlikely......... eh  :) #Banbury

and looking for deep cold when there is no chance.......the moments gone now

Edited by winterof79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well 120 on the ICON  quicker evolution  compared to the 6z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON 12z brings the cold in quicker than it’s 00z

5B622FB9-E2CD-453F-9DB0-EF0692344F53.thumb.png.272048eeb676966f3c949b8be2a1352e.pngE87F8E98-AC2A-459A-8506-45E646026FB4.thumb.png.23f30d65476a609e0507bf5f63ab6460.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well 120 on the ICON  quicker evolution  compared to the 6z

You could see that was gonna happen as there was more of a developed kick in the isobars near eastern europe and looked like it would push the cold air more directly towards the uk!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×