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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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Looks like an interesting week coming up - the lucky ones in the east can probably look forward to streamers from off the channel and the North Sea, which often give rise to an unpredictable amount of snow in some areas.  

Sometimes I have seen the forecasters caught out when the amount exceeds expectations but the conditions have to be just right for this. 

In my case being at Watford I am in hopes of a Thames Streamer but it depends a lot on wind direction to gain the full benefit and it can make the difference between just a covering and several inches.

We will see what we will see. Should it happen hoping for the powdery stuff,  but it needs the temps to stay below freezing :)

As it is a beautiful blue sky today - temp 3.2C with a 55% humidity. 

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Is there anything that could stop the block scooting off to Canada? As has been said, a few days ago it looked like it might settle around greenland.

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5 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Is there anything that could stop the block scooting off to Canada? As has been said, a few days ago it looked like it might settle around greenland.

Dont think so. It's headed that way come what may. But cold reload from the NE is clear on this chart from UKMO for longer term.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

To keep it wall to wall cold we need pressure to remain high to the north just long enough to force the trough to the south through further east. A few days ago it looked likely - now less so. However fine lines here - we have all seen blocks do odd things, and speed of transition is key. Let's hope it drags its feet.

Edited by Catacol
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20 minutes ago, stokepa31 said:

sorry yes i meant east to west faster not east. DOH :)

Although we are getting easterly winds it’s probably clearer to talk about movement in a westwards direction (or eastwards) but, yes, your analysis is spot on!

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Afternoon folks

looking forward to cold week ahead and hopefully some snow. After looking at the latest GFS I think we can expect which path the low will take. Was hoping it would take a more northern France path but the models seemed to all be singing off the same hymn sheet. 

With low heights in the med I couldn't work out why the low was heading straight for Blighty. Checking then jet profile I found the answer. Still going to be cold for most but snow will be restricted to northern areas. Still time to change fingers crossed. Hope everyone is well 

IMG_5566.PNG

IMG_5567.PNG

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1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

Although we are getting easterly winds it’s probably clearer to talk about movement in a westwards direction (or eastwards) but, yes, your analysis is spot on!

Gotcha :) In my mind i shall call it the SSW champagne cork evolution. Just too much oomph to stop and linger a while. gotta love the power of nature. Really looking forward to the coming week and shall be grateful for whatever comes our way. Just goes to show how many ducks you need to get in a row for achieve the perfect coldie spell of weather. 

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36 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Eh? Met office 30 day update says cold for most well into March.

Not referencing the 30 dayer. Further cold is likely re further donwelling waves. but as per my post above, losing the deeply cold airmass woudl clearly be a blow for a  potential record breaking march spell  

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All those of you (including me obviously:D) hoping for a continuation of the cold will like some or all of these from the GEFS 6z!..can't wait for the snow to start..I've reserved a lamp post!:shok::cold:P20 will do nicely!

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Closing this one now, fresh thread here:

 

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