Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[NickR]

2 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

ICON has blizzard like conditions for southern parts should the snow push north. Wind gusts 50-60mph no doubt higher over exposed locations.

Now at the same timeframe the snow is only affecting southern coastal counties but I do not expect ICON at that range to have much of a handle on convective snow showers streaming in from the east.

 

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

[ICE COLD]

Monday midday the beast is in 

The snow starting to come in 

Min and max temps looking very cold 

what a great start to the week ?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

On the same model eastern coastal counties seem to be favourable for snow showers, though the inland penetration is considerably lower when compared to Tues/Weds. You'd think so though given even stronger winds on Thursday. 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, NickR said:

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

i'd expect the whole of the east, down as far as the Thames estuary to be effected by convective snow - in an easterly, the minimum sea reach is over 100 miles which is more than enough for decent convection . . .

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Monday midday the beast is in 

The snow starting to come in 

Min and max temps looking very cold 

what a great start to the week ?

Mmmmm ? not if your working on a roof ??

[ICE COLD]

T66 and the snow looks quite widespread on th 18z , obviously not to be taken literally.

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, shotski said:

Mmmmm ? not if your working on a roof ??

You better give the roof a miss on Wednesday ? Even colder . 

[Coopsy]

Just now, abruzzi spur said:

South. Everything has gone south I tell you!  

I suppose at my age that's inevitable.  Must get down the gym more.

Lol you talking about Fridays low? Or the cold spell in general? 

[weatherguy]

Watch the jet....Come on, hold south...

[ICE COLD]

Wow -17 850s in the east on this run ?

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Lol you talking about Fridays low? Or the cold spell in general? 

I think he's talking about his giblets. 

GFS 18z only out to Wednesday (so far) confirms the above. FWIW 18z looks even colder in the short-medium range!

Edited February 24, 2018 by Reverse Zonality

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow -17 850s in the east on this run ?

from here you've got to expect the low to be held more to the south than previous . . .

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

I think he's talking about his giblets. 

GFS 18z only out to Wednesday (so far) confirms the above. FWIW 18z looks even colder in the short-medium range!

That’s a positive sign 

Edited February 24, 2018 by c00ps

[Ayrshire weather]

At a loss why 12z and 18z are almost identical yet almost 1 week away! Something not right here my guess is that models are struggling with the affects of the Cold and the second SSW effect its almost like the models have stalled and unsure how to progress! 

[Matthew.]

Exceptional. Never seen this for real life before 

[John Michael How]

3 hours ago, sawan said:

Heavy persistent snowfall Tuesday morning, from the NE through to midlands into south wales,Some disruption to travel and school closures!. M4 southwards still look dry at this point

 

Just catching up on the models- I think u missed the streamer over my area of NW kent? (were south of the M4)

[Guest]

Just now, Ayrshire weather said:

At a loss why 12z and 18z are almost identical yet almost 1 week away! Something not right here my guess is that models are struggling with the affects of the Cold and the second SSW effect its almost like the models have stalled and unsure how to progress! 

We have excellent agreement on the cold. Where the difficulties come in is how the low to the SW impacts our cold thereafter

[Snowjokes92]

What does FWIW mean? 

 

 

[Duane S.]

Just now, Snowjokes92 said:

What does FWIW mean? 

 

 

For what’s it’s worth

[matty40s]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow -17 850s in the east on this run ?

And how does that translate to ground level temp? 

[Ayrshire weather]

GFS 18Z almost killing off that low at +120 much weaker than the 12z run!

[Weathizard]

GFS even quicker with the milder air

[Johnp]

Milder air is further north still on this run at 126hrs.

Poo.

[Buzz]

GFS appears to be gearing up to go along similar lines as the 12Z ECM

[Guest]

GFS 18z has the low a little further north and west compared to the 12z

Not great as it moves more into line with the ECM 12z in bringing milder uppers from the south a little quicker on Friday. Just one run and all that!