Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[danm]

Clearly what the ECM and GFS are now showing is a viable option at the end of the week, however it’s nearly a week away so lots can change. 

[john mac]

Too many overreactions. The models and that is all the models are not used to dealing with that type and size of cold pooling. Happy to be prices wrong but they are more than likely under esitimating the strength of the cold and are pushing it away too easily. It’s of my opinion that the low will slip to our south and east. Time will tell.

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

A good thing to remember tonight is that earlier in the week the models seemed to be moving the easterly further and further south. That corrected the next day. We could still see the same here.

People here better qualified to answer than me but I wonder if the second strat warming might have scuppered us in the longer term. In my mind an SSW is the equivalent of shuffling the pack in a card game. You wouldn't put your cards back and reshuffle if you were holding 4 aces though!!! 

Everything has shifted Northwest because of that 2nd warming pushing the vortex away from Greenland. What would normally be a dream scenario could end our cold spell prematurely.

[Chesil View]

Just now, on the coast said:

Crikey ECM and UKMO a big change. Amazing how the models can change so quickly Expect a different wording from Meto on their long range tomorrow. Still a fabulous week ahead ahead of us though.

Very unlikely considering the run will be a huge mild outlier in both the ukmo and ecm suites

[phil nw.]

A number of off topic  posts have been removed. If you wish to thank someone for a post the like button is there for that purpose or of course you can pm. 

Model discussion only in here please everyone. 

Btw there are threads for general chat Inc. Cold spell and the ramps thread amongst many others. 

Onwards... 

[Dennis]

the cold is still there but a change at the 1-10Hpa lvls sees PV restrengthen.......

Edited February 24, 2018 by Dennis

[SP1986]

fairly unlikely that 3 models would have each operational as its outlier though.

It's early to say but the instinct says this is a trend, but models evolve so the outcomes could still vary between models.

[LRD]

I think it's a blip today. I'm sure I recall that last Saturday's model runs briefly showed the next few days and the cold spell not happening at all. Then Sunday brought it all back and it has been plain sailing to this cold spell all week since then

No science behind it but I have a gut feeling that the runs will show that low further south by this time tomorrow and the cold being extended

 

[ScottishSnowStorm]

The GFS and GEFS showing quite a few warmer runs for the south next week but the ensembles and tabluex for here in fife central scotland show a different picture 

Wouldn't need much correction to keep the colder air further south and hopefully it goes that way and not further north 

[Fergie]

I find it sad that people in here are just waiting for bad chart news so they can shout "I told you so..." 

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

 But there is support. It’s not just the ECM op - GFS, GEM and UKMO.

UKMO really ???

[Gustywind]

The ECM just looks complete nonsense after T144, I’d be stunned if its made the right call here. Start worrying if it gets the support of the GFS and UKMO and is still showing it at T+72.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

UKMO really ???

Compared to its previous run. Looked like the cold air was being mixed out quicker compared even to the GFS. Wonder what the 168 chart will show?

[fromey]

A week is a long time in model land, plenty of ups and down to come on this rollercoaster 

[Daniel*]

One thing for sure MOGREPS is staying firm and that’s good enough for me..much less prone to swinging.

[Derecho]

Right I've just looked at the 0z ECM ensembles..... I've categorized them into runs which keep the cold air over us by saturday (uppers cold enough for snow) and those that don't. The results are:

Milder uppers coming in: 0
Colder uppers remaining: 22
So a large ensemble flip to milder coming up... or the op was a major outlier


 

[SP1986]

Even if the ECM did occur, you can clearly see that the setup would bring another attempted easterly further down the line, in fact there is an outside chance of an omega block further down the line for example. The Met-Office did suggest afterall that there would be mild incursions in between the colder spells.. the model output reflects this I think, so when looked at from a broad point of view.. it makes sense.

[IDO]

Maybe the strat to trop connect has not done the job. Certainly, the trop really doesn't look like it has been destroyed by the SSW. The models are forecasting one HLB and a robust Polar Low (PV) meandering around the NH ring, and in fact, as blocks go not much use as it won't sit still. At the end of the D10 ECM we have this:

If the SSW is not doing its thing then it is no surprise that GFS and now ECM have picked up the signal that this is just a short cold burst. ECM had some unusual Synoptics on the 0z run which were unlikely to be repeated that held off the inevitable warming and now it follows the GFS and GEM.

I think that we should be happy we are going to get 5 plus days out of this pattern, it just hasn't worked out on this SW (assuming the models have the next 10 days right).

As for the ECM, the op can be a nut case, it tends to sit in small clusters when we have a complex setup, offering us wild outcomes. As I ignored the 0z run, I would ignore the 12z and hopefully something more akin to the GFS, that may keep the north in a colder pattern for longer.

Then again it could be entropy as the models are unable to draw on a dataset to give us a reasonable solution to this unusual situation? Who knows? Just thinking aloud.

[danm]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

One thing for sure MOGREPS is staying firm and that’s good enough for me..much less prone to swinging.

Can I ask why you’re so sure of this? It’s not publicly available. 

[Shunter]

21 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Deleted just watched bbc weather week a head  blizzards in south end of week More heavy snow at weekend..

That forecast is based on yesterday’s model charts 

[EML Network]

The ECM @ 240 Looks sad, it's as if it's saying ''I'm lost,  I'm supposed to be in Paris, but I ended up in Scotland"

[Joe Levy]

It is easy to feel downcast by the output this evening, but actually when we look back at what we saw only a week or so ago, we weren't even exactly sure whether the cold would make it to us in the first place. The arrival of that low pressure Thursday night into Friday will be a really interesting event to observe. Historically, low pressure has a tendency to correct southwards when faced with a large mass of cold air, even on the day itself. A classic example was in March 2013, which was to the detriment of many in terms of snow potential. Now the uppers are forecast to be at the same or colder than when this happened, so there is nothing to say that we won't see corrections southwards this time too. Regardless, I hope members will use this as an opportunity to observe some exciting weather developing. I'm expecting there to be a significant amount of inter-run variability over the next couple of days - the cold may well break down at the end of the week, but given how little differences can have a massive impact, I am inclined to wait before making any calls about what I think will happen! (that was the most sitting on the fence post I could have written ha!)

[bluearmy]

Operationals post day 6 are not to be taken as gospel - clearly all the major models take us to the brink of a snow event by Friday but what happens beyond the approach of the Iberian is the question - lots of pieces of the jigsaw have to fall into place (and there are quite a few) 

[Wilxy]

Just now, Joe Levy said:

It is easy to feel downcast by the output this evening, but actually when we look back at what we saw only a week or so ago, we weren't even exactly sure whether the cold would make it to us in the first place. The arrival of that low pressure Thursday night into Friday will be a really interesting event to observe. Historically, low pressure has a tendency to correct southwards when faced with a large mass of cold air, even on the day itself. A classic example was in March 2013, which was to the detriment of many in terms of snow potential. Now the uppers are forecast to be at the same or colder than when this happened, so there is nothing to say that we won't see corrections southwards this time too. Regardless, I hope members will use this as an opportunity to observe some exciting weather developing. I'm expecting there to be a significant amount of inter-run variability over the next couple of days - the cold may well break down at the end of the week, but given how little differences can have a massive impact, I am inclined to wait before making any calls about what I think will happen! (that was the most sitting on the fence post I could have written ha!)

When that snow event was forecast for the south coast and the models shifted it south to the channel islands!

[Mr Frost]

Well if all the models/charts agreed it would be boring for us all, right!? right!? right!? 

I think it’s what keeps us all intrigued/interested in viewing them everyday! Definitely has been a wee trend to bring the low further North on the latest GFS and ECM runs but we know how fickle these charts can be - the GFS 18z later and ECM in the morning might look totally different again - for the better or even worse!   

In the meantime snow for large parts of the UK and Ireland from Monday to Thursday/Friday - strong winds from the East, bitter windchill, very heavy snow showers, streamers/danglers galore and more persistent spells of snow could pop up anywhere! So much to look forward to for us all next week! 

Hope you all have a great night - I’m off for a wee gin or two!

Cheers! 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Mr Frost