Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Reverse Zonality said:

I think you're being just as premature. This won't be resolved for days - think how much data has got to come before next Thursday!

I agree, but people were rubbishing the GFS for what it was showing, saying they would much rather trust the ECM. Are they saying that now? It has to be said it is a big change from its earlier run.

[Summer Sun]

Most of England and Wales in the less cold air at t192

 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hi LRD

Hope im not being too stupid here.... but how can we congratulate the GFS for spotting a trend of something that’s almost a week away and may not happen?

 

UKMO and ECM have just followed it. The trend is pretty bad. OK I should have said 'bravo GFS for.... if this does come off'

Fair enough?

[sawan]

Heavy persistent snowfall Tuesday morning, from the NE through to midlands into south wales,Some disruption to travel and school closures!. M4 southwards still look dry at this point

 

[Southender]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z mean looks to have gone up slightly compared to the 06z lots of scatter beyond the end of next week but the trend from GFS at present is to something less cold for the south at least

12z

U

06z

Looks like an improvement to me on the mean at the important stage next Thu/Fri. Nearer -5c 850’s instead of -3c. Little steps but could be the difference between rain/snow for some and what happens thereafter.

 

[mb018538]

ECM ensembles will be interesting - almost certainly the op will be at the top end. Just look at the difference from the 00z

[Snowy L]

Weird how big and powerful the low becomes considering the jet is down in North Africa. Just doesn't make sense.

[Man With Beard]

Incredible! The ECM puts out the most progressive option of all!! This absolutely was NOT in its ensembles this morning!! Cold spell carries in for the north, over for the south.

FWIW - huge snowfall for the south on Thursday from this, and Midlands later. A second front coming in Friday night is rain - still waiting for next frame but could be a blizzard for the north later.

[karlos1983]

Something tells me this will be wide of the mark, but we will see in an hours or so where it sits on the ens graph....

[bluearmy]

Well that’s not what we ordered!  Dp’s positive all the way up to the far north of England by day 7! 

everythigng that could go wrong went wrong on that run. The 00z op was in one of the smallest clusters - hope that repeats in a few hours! 

[Djdazzle]

There must be a pretty strong signal for the models to push the LP through so quickly, which seems to go against the intuition of a lot of the experts on here. Let’s hope it’s a case where the signal will be dropped in later runs.

[on the coast]

Crikey ECM and UKMO a big change. Amazing how the models can change so quickly Expect a different wording from Meto on their long range tomorrow. Still a fabulous week ahead ahead of us though.

Edited February 24, 2018 by on the coast

[Frosty.]

Quite a rapid thaw on the Ecm 12z next weekend..I wouldn't panic just yet though!..wait for the ensembles

[That ECM]

 Could be that gfs on the warmer side of its members and ecm also being the same. We know the gfs is, let's see where the ecm sits. Nothing was going to be resolved for the end of next week today. Be that they showed what they have or cold for all. 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I agree, but people were rubbishing the GFS for what it was showing, saying they would much rather trust the ECM. Are they saying that now? It has to be said it is a big change from its earlier run.

It’s only a change if it has support , why do so many people come to a conclusion before seeing where a run sits in the ENS

[mb018538]

If it does pan out as per the op it’ll be a massive shame - mon-fri are going to be epic, but it could be a very rapid thaw in the blink of an eye. Ensembles crucial!

[Coopsy]

I’m sorry about the models tonight. It’s my fault. I bought a shovel and some rock salt today. Seriously though some very progressive movement on the warmer air. Doesn’t feel right but I’m no expert. Hopefully a southward shift shows up tomorrow. It is 6 days away after all 

Edited February 24, 2018 by c00ps

[Jason M]

A good thing to remember tonight is that earlier in the week the models seemed to be moving the easterly further and further south. That corrected the next day. We could still see the same here.

People here better qualified to answer than me but I wonder if the second strat warming might have scuppered us in the longer term. In my mind an SSW is the equivalent of shuffling the pack in a card game. You wouldn't put your cards back and reshuffle if you were holding 4 aces though!!! 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

It’s only a change if it has support , why do so many people come to a conclusion before seeing where a run sits in the ENS

 But there is support. It’s not just the ECM op - GFS, GEM and UKMO.

[Southender]

Could the ECM just of got its colours wrong? Orange is the new purple right?

Gulp. ??

[Bristawl Si]

Strange, considering Meto updates were still v bullish re cold and snow for next 2 weeks. Wonder what Mogreps is now showing?

[nick sussex]

There seems to be a lot of bickering in here over the end of the week which clearly is not set in stone otherwise the outputs would agree which they don’t .

Theres some snow and some very cold temps before the low is expected to move in from the sw.

But one would think the outputs have dropped this given some of the gloom that’s descended on the thread.

Its unlikely any model has the correct solution for the low yet and it’s best to not take any output at face value from  Thursday onwards because it’s never that simple with this set up.

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by nick sussex

[Skullzrulerz]

Before hand when the GFS came out people were saying it's wrong it's too over progressive and now your hand picked favourite that ECM has now sider to a warmer regime... But let's enjoy the cold spell beforehand?

[terrier]

5 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Crikey ECM and UKMO a big change. Amazing how the models can change so quickly Expect a different wording from Meto on their long range tomorrow. Still a fabulous week ahead ahead of us though.

Don’t think they will change there wording on one set of model runs to be honest. Let’s see where all this sits in the ensembles first. 

[Guest]

Would be interesting to hear the thoughts of the experts on here regarding why and how that ECM run goes so wrong for us after Thursday. Is it a likely solution or is the op just playing with one of many possible outcomes?

We will likely see this at the top end of the ensembles later. If the 00z reverts back to flattening the low and taking it further south and east like the 00z then we're back in business of course.