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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

It's only a few days ago that confidence was high for a 2-week bitterly cold spell starting from tomorrow. Is that in the balance now?

GFS started a trend? Yday Ecm and ukmo had the low barely affecting UK; today's runs show they've moved the LP for end of next week north (compared to yday). GFS today also moves it further north (compared to its runs yday).

Interesting few days coming up, for sure.

Yes crazy that there is a big possibility this world ending cold spell could be over this time next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z mean looks to have gone up slightly compared to the 06z lots of scatter beyond the end of next week but the trend from GFS at present is to something less cold for the south at least

12z

graphe_ens3_nxp6.thumb.gif.e6c372646af37a0bcfae85a39486c116.gif

06z

graphe_ens3_bkb8.thumb.gif.0b698c81606694cb78f5afddcfed391f.gif

Worth noting that in the 12z, the 2nd of March uppers have decreased slightly now that its coming into the near timeframe. I expect that to continue towards Thurs/Fridays event.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

ECM +48, whole UK into the freezer...

ECU0-48.GIF?24-0

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

I think that it's easy to spend too much time looking at and worrying about the future, instead of enjoying the present. Even without snow, the next few days should be bitterly cold, and this on it's own produces interesting effects. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

With this frontal feature at end of week occurs, people will get the frontal in the south and snow showers piling into say parts of north east england, yorkshire etc. Thats if current 12z gfs is correct. Ukmo have it a bit further north i think, central england would do well, parts of southern pennines would be well hit, on top of lying snow from previous days

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

With that low I think it will be much closer to being resolved once we have the cold pool in place, as it's where that cold wave and the low interact that will determine where the low goes next. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM out at T72 and again a beast is heading towards us, this one seems to have rather too many front feet for my liking. That's a bit weird, no?

ECM0-72.GIF

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM looks to be sticking with its 00z suite to me at +96

4842C1F4-E58C-4A82-845C-268BB5246854.thumb.gif.7c1b267d74fed1916fad04ce6dde5410.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Stark differences already between GFS (left) and ECM (right) at +96.

gfs-0-96.png?12ECM1-96.GIF

Blocking appears both more robust and pushing west stronger.  ECM is also notable for delay of the 2nd LP system running behind the 1st, which should prevent the block eroding as seen in the GFS run..

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

This is just incredible from the ECM at 96 hours - large swathes of the UK and Ireland will be getting frequent heavy snow showers all day long. :santa-emoji:

Eastern areas from North to South buried by the end of the day. (including previous two days snowfall!)

 

873C1D20-CE22-46C8-82C0-579CFF98AE6E.png

9D58238C-A0E2-4D3A-A92C-583B7F8CCF58.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Slightly further south maybe?

I’m not involved in that debate :rofl:

i do not like the ecm 120 :nonono:

DBA7A1D5-4C5A-45F8-A0D8-6B95663A51D1.thumb.gif.b59ea88d8865f83959a62751aae7877f.gif

Drags to much mild air in. Seems very quick to me to be honest..

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM 120 is great, much less mild air mixed in than gfs! Winner!

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

+120 comparison (GFS left, ECM right):

gfs-0-120.png?12?12ECM1-120.GIF

ECH1-120.GIF?24-0gfsnh-0-120.png?12?12

Very similar, aside from more robust blocking over greenland.  Also from the NH view we can see there's less disturbance to the east which should provide more resistance to LP penetration, and that siberian PV lobe looks set to flood south.  Fingers crossed, hopefully I'm not talking utter tripe! Time will tell...

 

EDIT: 120 has vindicated my views! huzzah!
 

ECH1-144.GIF?24-0

The LP is pushed back west, and the HP to our east is eroded, paving the way for a reload. Nice.  What we really want to see is that LP start to disrupt and sink south in the next frames...

Edited by weatherguy
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not involved in that debate :rofl:

i do not like the ecm 120 :nonono:

DBA7A1D5-4C5A-45F8-A0D8-6B95663A51D1.thumb.gif.b59ea88d8865f83959a62751aae7877f.gif

Drags to much mild air in. Seems very quick to me to be honest..

Not sure I agree

SNOW.thumb.gif.652957d4fa19e8d03f4877bd23cadef0.gif

Less cold, yes. But SE winds ahead of the low will mean that it'd be an all snow event, even down to the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Great Plum said:

Well, that’s not at all confusing! 

 

B4C44D0D-E240-4071-8A5B-6D5D70484F66.png

Two people looking at their locations...

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

ECMWF All good at +120 similar to its 0Z members! :D

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 18.23.34.png

It's dragging milder air up from the Med. Follow the isobars. Direct feed from East being cut off for some areas. The trend is glaringly obvious now imho. Or am i writing tosh?!:D:oops:

Edited by Bristle boy
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