Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[AWD]

UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.  Low thickness values might help those in the SW though?

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by AWD

[ICE COLD]

Where does knocker live ?

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

By that time the uk will be paralysed by snow, ice and severe penetrating frosts..Here comes the Beast on the Gfs 12z and it's very hungry!

I still don’t buy these over progressive options. I think the low will pass through France, keeping us all on the colder side.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

UKMO 12z keeping the core of any frontal snowfall on Thursday south of the M4;

Frequent snow showers for Scotland and NE England.

On Friday, the 12z UKMO intensifies the LP, probably due to an ever increasingly tight thermal gradient, giving it more "oomph" to make headway into SW England.

I will await the upper air temp charts but I would guess "squeaky bum" time the further south you are.

 

Squeaky.

[snowstorm445]

GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

[Country Boy]

Here she comes

[Nick123]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

      

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I know snow is our main excitement but has anyone noticed the winds?? 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

In the end when we reach Wednesday then the coldest air is over us, so the quicker the the progress of retrograding core heights to Greenland and dropping low heights into Scandinavia the better in keeping that low near the Azores further south as it moves into Europe.

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 5

      

Once low heights move towards the NE, this will reinvigorate the Euro trough and parent low to our south will tend to move on a more easterly vector rather than towards the UK to bring milder air. We don't want the heights moving too far west of course as this is a classic west based -NAO which will allow pressure to rise over parts of Europe, a cold north easterly could become a very wet south westerly if the jet gets too far north.

I think that looks good on UKMO and GEM.  LP to move ENE over northern France to eventually centre over Benelux region....continued NE/ ENE flow for UK

 

BFTP

Edited February 24, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[AmershamMike]

Just now, clactongaz said:

Here she comes

Apologies for my ignorance but what does that show?

[Matthew.]

The low looks like it loses intensity as it moves north. I guess that’s a good thing. The 6z I thought looked stronger

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:

GFS seems very consistent in bringing the low straight up towards the UK. Almost no change on the 6z

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, higher uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

Edited February 24, 2018 by MattTarrant

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Squeaky.

Actually, to be fair, that is not as bad as I thought it would look for the south.

Those 850hpa temps plus low thickness values progged might keep parts of Wales & SW England white rather than wet.  Shame we can't see the forecast Dp's for those charts.

[Sawel]

OK, completely sick of some of the nonsense in here. TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT THE UKMO AND GFS IS SHOWING AT +72 HOURS.

How long have we been waiting to see charts like these at 72 hours? Some have been waiting decades. Now how can there be any negativity when we have charts like this only 72 hours away?

I am quite amazed that people are not more excited given all the failed easterlies we've had to endure over the years. Easterlies normally disappear at 120hrs and yet here we are, after all this time of chasing with nothing to show only blood sweat and tears (OK maybe not blood, depends how hard you whacked your keyboard when things normally went titus verticus) we are facing a severe cold spell with some areas looking at substantial snowfall.

Ladies and gentlemen, after all these years, we can see the train.

 

 

[philglossop]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Given we had snow about 3 weeks ago from that cold front which stalled and died over us I’d say yes. 

[MattStoke]

UKMO wouldn’t be marginal.

GFS a bit less progressive and the low is less deep. Too marginal in the far south for a time before cold uppers move back in.

Edited February 24, 2018 by MattStoke

[Guest]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

An all snow event I would suggest looking at those uppers?

Agreed and that's not even factoring in the surface cold.

Strengthening agreement on some serious snowy disruption for the southern half of the UK on Friday given the GFS/UKMO and GEM updates.

[karlos1983]

That would be an all snow event

southern England are gonna need a bigger spade!

[Banbury]

Dumping of snow 

[snowstorm445]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Quite a notable difference in regards to the 850hPa temperatures, hihers uppers stall along southern coastal areas with gradual mixing out. 

True that actually, was just looking at the pressure charts. Also very cold uppers still holding on in most across the northern half of the British Isles.

[Froze were the Days]

120z UKMO looks okay and surprised from that it moves that far north but as said uppers have been mixed out BUT not that much...just wish we had a different trend which doesn't seem to be going the way of keeping the low to our south (for locked in cold).

[kold weather]

Very close run thing for the south on the 12z GFS, probably another 20-30 miles south and an all snow event for everyone.

As it happens, GFS goes for a big snow event west of say a line from Portsmouth north and a freezing rain event further east in the SE. Back to snow later.

BETTER run than the 06z GFS for sure but still mighty close either way!!

[SMU]

Great chart viewing

GFs 156 takes a big move to the ECM with easterlies ahead of the low now - still marginal for the south - but working into a better pattern with each run-

[Eskimo]

Whilst a more prolonged spell of snow sets in across Southern Britain, heavy snow showers still pile into the North East.

[kev238]

It's clear that the end of week holds huge potential for snowfall! I say let's go for the high risk, high reward setup given the time of the year! Also important to note it's not just th  GFS that is showing a deep low but other models too. 

But in the meantime great snowfall potential from showers as well.