Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Day 10]

144 to 168 looks like heavy snow pushing in for a large portion of the country.

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by Day 10

[Ice Day]

ECM out to 168...and wow.  Rearrange these words.  Buried Getting Somewhere's.

 

[Wilxy]

And 168h is a perfect example of what happens when milder air try’s to move up against surface cold!

[metaltron]

For @nick sussex; a preview of the most severe and prolonged vague de froid for France since 1971, courtesy of the ECM:

 

 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM T144 ?

Now that's ice cold..great to see a nationwide freeze on this Ecm 12z run, nobody misses out!

[AWD]

And by the time we get to T168;

The commute to work for some southerners will look like this;

 

[BlastFromThePastbuzz]

Be interesting to see the latest ECM Snow depth charts for Southern England. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T168 stalls the low in the channel, cold air above. Gonna need a shovel!

the southwest would deserve a run like this! real seventies stuff!!

[Skullzrulerz]

It's never a great idea to all excited over one run to be honest... Some people could be disappointed

[craigore]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Ecm T168 still going ?

Would the -8 850s in the S.E keep it an all snow event ?

[ukpaul]

A little request regarding comments being made, as many are on their phones at this time and rely on commentary. There have just been more comments about 'for the south' (and that could have been for elsewhere) and, yes, you are looking at your backyard, but these are countrywide events as shown by the charts. 

For the benefit of others - these are 'great for the midlands', 'great for Wales', great for Ireland',  'great for northern England' and, maybe a little less, 'great for Scotland'.

Just to be clear.

[Southender]

With 850’s no higher than -7c even on Southern coasts, that is a total full on white out of epic proportions next Thurs for those under the ppn. Jesus H.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Southender

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Would the -8 850s in the S.E keep it an all snow event ?

Easily - a SE flow off a coldish continent.

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's never a great idea to all excited over one run to be honest... Some people could be disappointed

It’s not just one run though. Been showing on different models for a while now ??

[ICE COLD]

ECM 192 it just keeps on coming ????

[Frosty.]

I don't think there will be any mild mush pushing up from the south on this run!..fantastic Ecm 12z with another reload from the NE.

It's a snow fest ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited February 23, 2018 by Frosty.

[Philbill]

Hi all,

Been following this forum for 5 years waiting for the beast to come and bite me like it used to in the 70' and 80's.

Thanks for all the expert posts guys its been a rollercoaster ride, maybe this time it really is true

Phil

[snowydog]

3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

A little request regarding comments being made, as many are on their phones at this time and rely on commentary. There have just been more comments about 'for the south' (and that could have been for elsewhere) and, yes, you are looking at your backyard, but these are countrywide events as shown by the charts. 

For the benefit of others - these are 'great for the midlands', 'great for Wales', great for Ireland',  'great for northern England' and, maybe a little less, 'great for Scotland'.

Just to be clear.

Thanks for this. On the East Coast of NI and have no idea how these charts affect us as I use the commentary for understanding. 

[Captain Shortwave]

   

Okay, this is getting beyond ridiculous now. Frontal snow in the south, transferring towards the south east. Whilst the extreme cold relents somewhat the fact we have 850s of -8C we also have very low heights and a NE wind with a larger sea track so showers would continue to pile into many parts of the UK.

[terrier]

Thought I’d stumbled into the southern regional thread for a minute there. Great ecm again nationwide cold ice frosts and heavy snow.

[kev238]

A quite amazing ECM run! The low from the south is gAining traction- high risk for some but high reward at the same time! I am of the mind it would be worth the risk to perhaps see a truly great snowfall event even if it ran the risk of milder air eventually creeping in!

[Ice Day]

Sweet Baby Jesus.....it's still going at 192. What an event this would be.  The uppers would still be conducive to  snow nationwide....with an attack from the north east brewing?  Just stunning output, dare I say another upgrade?

  

[kold weather]

Actually not bad agreement tonight from the models. The ECM looks pretty much spot on to where I was expecting the low to be, big event for the south, especially the SW. It'll be interesting to see what the ECM produces snow depth wise between 144hrs-192hrs.

Details are very difficult at this stage but the broad trend is there. Still more likely to trend south than north BUT at the moment the 12z GFS really wasn't as far out as I first thought. Shift 12z GFA south 100 miles and it looks like ECM and vice versa.

[Rayth]

If you look closely at the ECM 144 chart and see the kink to the NE ...

 

thats where my back yard and  Newcastle used to be ! 

[sawan]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

22nd

Today

The way it's correcting Northwards, it seems that it will shift even more. But we don't want anymore corrections, do we?