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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Hey folks - the ECM is rolling out, you know - A MODEL.... which can be DISCUSSED.

Clue there somewhere..

Enjoy the run, don't feed the trolls - try and stay on topic please - am just about as quick on the delete button as I am on F5 when the ECM is at frame 168 and Sylvian is putting 50 cents in the meter..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

GEFS 12z mean for your viewing pleasure..if you're a coldie of course!!:cold-emoji::cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

21_96_850tmp.png

21_120_850tmp.png

21_120_2mtmpmax.png

21_144_850tmp.png

21_144_2mtmpmax.png

21_168_850tmp.png

21_168_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_850tmp.png

21_192_2mtmpmax.png

21_216_850tmp.png

21_216_2mtmpmax.png

21_240_2mtmpmax.png

21_240_850tmp.png

21_264_2mtmpmax.png

21_264_850tmp.png

21_288_2mtmpmax.png

21_288_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

ECM at 96 looking as you'd imagine......fantastic

ECH1-96.GIF?23-0 ECU0-72.GIF

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Nice little kink over South East Wales at T96;

ECH1-96.thumb.gif.b6cc9b5a99dab290fceab08a81e3628a.gif 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Cold wave is a direct hit on Wednesday. That will produce loads of lake effect snow.

 

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

ECM0-120.GIFSomeone mentioned a pacman yesterday, I`m not sure what it is but the UK just about to be bitten hard.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
6 minutes ago, AWD said:

Nice little kink over South East Wales at T96;

ECH1-96.thumb.gif.b6cc9b5a99dab290fceab08a81e3628a.gif 

What does the kink in the flow mean please AWD? 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, John88B said:

What does the kink in the flow mean please AWD? 

Indicates that precip is about. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, John88B said:

What does the kink in the flow mean please AWD? 

A disturbance in the flow.  Instability resulting in PPN, in this instance some snowfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

I am now going to see if I can discover, during the 1962-63 coldest spells if the history is available to show what 850 mb temperatures were. .

 

John, BB6263 posted the coldest 850 temps charts for pretty much all the major cold spells including that one since the 19th century - I think it's on P104 of this thread.  I found it interesting that if Thursday, which is 1 March!, verifies as some of the models, you have to go back to January 1987 to find colder air reaching the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

There's absolutely no escape from that. We're all going to get it.

Interesting next frame though!!

ECM0-144.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM1-168.GIF?23-0

Just doesn't stop. Somewhere in the south could experience several days of snowfall off the ECM.

V exciting times ahead could be a year to remember. 

March 2013 for comparison archives-2013-3-11-12-0.png

 

 

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.2a0b7ff40a66278e4b75cb315adaa0c7.GIF

22nd

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.c6b97f8fbd3855cef53bd19d9b0343a7.GIF

Today

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.1194cb5de728ebcedfbfa1fffabf719f.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun
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