Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[cyclonic happiness]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like the ICON has given up here, just a mass of nothingness over the near continent and British Isles.

but wouldn't that be absolutely bitterly cold? under a slack low? possibly record breaking

[kev238]

The ICON seems to get far too much attention on here! It wouldnt surprise me if it was mentioned more than the UKMO / gem

If it weren't the first out the traps so to speak I doubt it would barely Register

anyhow the models look insanely good if cold and snow are your things! Maybe a breakdown around next weekend  but given the depth of cold around by then it would surely be a snowy one!

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK

Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...

 

Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

[Snowyowl9]

A penetrating severe frost just like 1986,strong easterlies.

[high ground birmingham]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me but the GFS looks like a minor upgrade on depth of cold. Uppers colder by say half a degree. Maybe its just me

[SLEETY]

Blizzards by next weekend in the South,it’s looking more likely now 

[MKN]

Just now, AWD said:

Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

Not with an elongated low the general flow will still be east or south easterly. 

[Yarmy]

The 500hpa temps are something to behold too:

-42C! 

-27C or so required for snow as I recall, so I think we're safe with that parameter.

[Mr Frost]

Stunning UKMO 120 charts! Seriously can’t take anymore of this - it is utterly phenomenal! 

Just look at these wee delights! 

Now that’s the real deal!!!!!! 

 

[Buzz]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Won't the cold upper air start getting mixed out as any potential PPN hits southern counties though?

Looks a risk that some Mediterranean air might get into some southern counties there.

As ever, high risk but high reward if it comes off.  I'd rather have the risk of snowfall than no risk at all.

I suggest reading the following excellent post for clarification on the above:

 

[ICE COLD]

Snowy Thursday ?

[SLEETY]

Huge snowdrifts piling up in the gale force Easterly blizzard,wow what a chart

[terrier]

That ukmo should come with an adult warning. That’s just pure filth. 

[ICE COLD]

Anyone got UKMO upper temps ? 

[AWD]

12z Arpege shows snow showers pushing well inland on Tuesday;

[The Beast From The East]

2 minutes ago, kev238 said:

The ICON seems to get far too much attention on here! It wouldnt surprise me if it was mentioned more than the UKMO / gem

If it weren't the first out the traps so to speak I doubt it would barely Register

anyhow the models look insanely good if cold and snow are your things! Maybe a breakdown around next weekend  but given the depth of cold around by then it would surely be a snowy one!

I would say maybe less cold but not a breakdown.... and even then just temporary less cold for a day maybe. That's one MEGA big cold pool that will not be pushed away anytime soon.. .

 

 

[SLEETY]

Southern England is going to get buried,the met will go level 4 warning if this keeps showing wow ,country coming to a standstill

[kev238]

1 in 3 GFS runs is bringing in this snow from the south risk- I think that is a fair estimate of the chance of it directly hitting the uk

of course if it moves as shown on the most recent GFS there is a risk of some milder air getting into some southern / south western parts 

[Optimus Prime]

The maximum temperature for the start of March;

As the model resolution increases, so the cold intensifies.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[terrier]

Wow just wow words fail me 

[That ECM]

Ukmo t144 & GFS Low further south on ukmo. Detail on this will take another 72 hours or so but very interesting.

Edited February 23, 2018 by That ECM

[NorthYorksWeather]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone got UKMO upper temps ? 

[Singularity]

Hmm two runs in a row with the 'grazer' scenario.

Now I really am thinking of that March 2013 let-down!

 

Oh wait hang on I forgot, this is GFS; it's defying what the jet pattern dictates should occur and taking the low more N than E now.

I suppose it's not exactly out of the question that something like this could transpire. I can already hear the Londoners ranting .

[danm]

GFS showing some potentially huge amounts of snowfall from the south later next week, but takes the low further north with less cold uppers for the south by Friday. 

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by danm

[ITSY]

Great run. If we're talking full frontal blizzards though, we'll need the LP to skirt up the SEn corner of the UK into the North Sea, rather than track directly over central England. The reason is that, with the latter, it will tie slightly milder uppers into the equation - you can see this risk at 168 where S England gets a snow-heavy rain-sleet event. If it skirts further Eward, it will drag colder uppers from N Europe westward over the UK as it advances into the N Sea. Anyway, far to far out to worry about such details, the general trend is great. Heavy snow showers Mon-Weds with a chance of a proper nationwide blizzard Thurs-Fri. Now how often do you say that. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by ITSY