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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I don't like Mondays but something tells me i will next week..great start to the Gfs 12z!:D:shok::cold:

12_69_mslp850.png

12_69_ukthickness850.png

12_69_ukthickness.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyway - models !

ICON time

its had a rough few runs now going with the shortwave dropping into the ridge - still on the table btw 

Done it again.

Pros and cons here. It would probably scupper any chance of the coldest March day record on the 1st. But it looks like it would bring a spell of snow through the country (dare I say marginal in the far west?!?). And it would probably prolong the cold (minus 16 uppers already back into the east by the end of Thursday on this run) because it will build cold back in behind the trough and the low to the south will be shut out.

ECM had a few members go this way this morning - who fancies a wager we'll see this on the op run tonight??

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

All looking good so far on the GFS out to t90! Bitter cold in place from Monday and good placement of the high pressure. Large cold pool encroaching.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Could easily reach sub -20C across the SE & where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

icon-0-168.png?23-12icon-1-168.png?23-12

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:

Could easily reach sub -20 across the SE where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

icon-0-165.png?23-12icon-1-168.png?23-12

Looks like the ICON has given up here, just a mass of nothingness over the near continent and British Isles.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

UKMO 120 looking excellent again

 

110A0770-4B62-49D4-93F4-7164B1C9BA71-2835-000003154BA9B9B0.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS and UKMO pretty much on the same page at 120 so I would think ICON unlikely at this stage.

the UKMO 144 looks like that low would bring a lot of snow next frame or two.

UN144-21.GIF?23-17

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