Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Frosty.]

I don't like Mondays but something tells me i will next week..great start to the Gfs 12z!

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Anyway - models !

ICON time

its had a rough few runs now going with the shortwave dropping into the ridge - still on the table btw 

Done it again.

Pros and cons here. It would probably scupper any chance of the coldest March day record on the 1st. But it looks like it would bring a spell of snow through the country (dare I say marginal in the far west?!?). And it would probably prolong the cold (minus 16 uppers already back into the east by the end of Thursday on this run) because it will build cold back in behind the trough and the low to the south will be shut out.

ECM had a few members go this way this morning - who fancies a wager we'll see this on the op run tonight??

[danm]

All looking good so far on the GFS out to t90! Bitter cold in place from Monday and good placement of the high pressure. Large cold pool encroaching.

[Summer Sun]

ICON is most definitely an upgrade for the cold air much further north 12z compared with 00z

12z

00z

 

[bluearmy]

ICON is a very different evolution to the other nwp recent output - looks like it will be again 

[Panayiotis]

Could easily reach sub -20C across the SE & where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

Edited February 23, 2018 by Panayiotis

[That ECM]

Ukmo t96, nice!!

[ICE COLD]

Here comes the extremely cold air at T96 ?

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ukmo Beautiful

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:

Could easily reach sub -20 across the SE where there is snowcover with this chart from the ICON!

Looks like the ICON has given up here, just a mass of nothingness over the near continent and British Isles.

[SMU]

Even though its unlikely I like the ICON evolution-

screams of record breakers...

[ICE COLD]

Snow really getting going it T99 ??

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

120 ukmo:) stunning

[Summer Sun]

ICON 12z 850's

I think the west will see a better chance of snow later next week if the high starts to pull away towards Iceland and we pick small areas of low pressure over the UK

Edited February 23, 2018 by Summer Sun

[danm]

UKMO 120 looking excellent again

 

[ICE COLD]

Here come the pretty colours 

[Seasonal weather required]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T63 and we are in full swing 

There she is !

That is the beast looking right at us .

That looks rather scary .

[bluearmy]

Wondering just how day 6 will pan out on ukmo with the Azores low pushing ne and the p/v  se .........

[ICE COLD]

GFS T120 

[SMU]

UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK

Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...

 

[ICE COLD]

-17 850s into Scotland ?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Amazing! just hope low to S can get north enough

Perfect alignment for Thames streamer along the M4 corridor ?

[Matthew.]

Pretty serious stuff when you see breaching of  -20 uppers in the North seaSea

[Mucka]

GFS and UKMO pretty much on the same page at 120 so I would think ICON unlikely at this stage.

the UKMO 144 looks like that low would bring a lot of snow next frame or two.

[ICE COLD]

Again another WOW t135