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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Just now, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Definitely not. Not in temps of -3 during the day and windchill of -15 for some areas. :cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny days with the odd cloud.
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Definitely not. Not in temps of -3 during the day and windchill of -15 for some areas. :cold::cold:

Depending on location remember my dear boy.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
8 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Not with the low dew points. They will be through the floor. Some sublimation is possible though (snow evaporating without melting).

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Signal- for colder/longer grows massively this morning...

The fridged air becoming locked in!!!!..

#winter #wonderland

MT8_London_ens (1).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (1).png

Looks like an increasing signal for a very snowy period next weekend on those charts.

Look at the precipitation spikes during the first few days of March with uppers more than conducive for snowfall!  :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

To summarise....for those of us waking up with trepidation...STILL game on across all suites for at LEAST next week to remain bitterly cold and snowy.

Edited by Southender
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Looks like an increasing signal for a very snowy period next weekend on those charts.

Look at the precipitation spikes during the first few days of March with uppers more than conducive for snowfall!  :cold:

Yes...

Trouble continues to brew..

Stonking ens sets!!!!

?

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
14 minutes ago, Raythan said:

In the latter stages of the ecm . Is it picking up on the second warming ? 

Personally I think its picking up the start of the next ice age. :cold:

I've got 4 snow shovels in the garage, hardly been used since 2010, but with this chart I doubt 4 will be enough. 

ECM1-240.GIF?23-12

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
17 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Not if it's cold enough, which it looks likely to be. Think about parts of the US where they get incredible amounts of lying snow at times- New York for example at 40 degrees latitude has stronger sun than here. Chicago at around 41 degrees north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Not convinced about snowfest low? EC not interested at all, amazing runs, possibly best ever, but prefer GFS option

ECM1-168.GIF?23-12gfs-0-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Before anyone is surprised by the raw ec data on temp graphs, note there is a ‘warm’ sector heading south late on and maxes are around 5c though dp’s stay sub zero as no precip associated with them on the output. it won’t  happen like that anyway. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Whats wrong with UKMO?,that low could move north and bring blizzards to thevSouth ,it would only turn less cold if the low moved north over the UK,stay to the south and it would remain cold,need it to stall in the English channel to bring an  historic blizzard to the coastal counties,like 1881,1895 did

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

Whilst it's nice to see snow, just look at these DAY TIME temps! and wednesday we are looking at -2 -5 daytime! for people who have chronic illnesses this is not good! and for the elderly! 

daytemp1.jpg

daytemp2.jpg

daytempwed.jpg

daytempwed1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking forward to the  upgrades tomorrow:D

That's what we have!!..models show the Beast is going to be a direct hit with incredible cold, and where there's snow cover, overnight minimum minus double digits celsius..and there is a lot of snow being shown!:cold-emoji::shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Now we're getting closer to the action, the ARGEPE will become increasingly useful. Here's what it says for snow cover by first thing Tuesday. A dusting at least for most south of the border, an inch or two for some

arpegeuk-45-102-0.png?23-05

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

132-7UK.GIF?23-0132-101UK.GIF?23-0

850s and Dewpoints look a bit marginal to me :D

132-290UK.GIF?23-0

-15 wind chill...brrrrrrrrrrrr

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Posted
  • Location: Cley next the Sea, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Cley next the Sea, Norfolk
48 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Bear in mind cloud cover too, it can't melt anything if we've got almost constant cloud cover, which given the charts showing the amount of precipitation coming we'd have to have close to 100% cloud cover most of the time 

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