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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

144 from ECM has us in bitter air

CB4FE3BE-DEA9-4940-AE27-D15541BF06D4.png

F8AC1120-F450-4814-8583-1704522E736C.png

screaming Thames streamer that one. Im not convinced it will pile through quite so quickly but that can only be a good thing. Nasty little finger of doom. Right, im away camping for three days before the balloon goes up. Thanks to everyone who has made this week so exciting and for the excellent insights. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Good lord, most of the Northern hemisphere dominated by high pressure - total reversal

ECH1-192.GIF?23-12

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Certainly not the excitement of the GFS but ECM is still very cold at 168

965A9B17-76C9-4554-81FA-DDC62C264DD8.png

As usual gfs being to progressive lows coming up the south maybe these will in end just run a cross southern England giving more snow England and Wales..

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

As usual gfs being to progressive lows coming up the south maybe these will in end just run a cross southern England giving more snow England and Wales..

Exactly Abbie - high risk/high reward with a ton of naughty snowfall moving up into Southern England and Wales. (I for one would be buzzing like an old fridge if I lived in those areas)

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Well GFS was mild outlier from next Friday also an outlier on precipitation. 90% of members continue with -10 uppers and shallower low. Op has blown low up too much I believe

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes and yes.

I think that the cold will last until the second round of negative strat anomalies push to the surface and reinforce blocking. But less certain than I have been about this first round. If we keep the cold air against the initial push of returning westerlies then round two will be less pronounced but still better than most wintry spells seen over the last few years. There will be enough time to push the snow to the side before it comes again lol.

is there any post ssw induced reason for the amplified aleutian ridge on this run ed?

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Signal- for colder/longer grows massively this morning...

The fridged air becoming locked in!!!!..

#winter #wonderland

MT8_London_ens (1).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Seriously this is getting ridiculous - could be years before we ever see anything like these charts again. (with a high chance of verifying)

Sit back, relax and take it all in. 

Just beautlful! :D

ECM 240

5F71FF9A-8B4F-4ACC-B8B4-D262C815AFA4.png

316291A7-84CD-4415-B8A7-DA51323FAA29.png

633D6882-F295-4109-9759-71D97DD9F0E1.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

In the latter stages of the ecm . Is it picking up on the second warming ? 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

And the ecm follows up on the icon gfs and ukmo. Locked in cold with snow for many. Even at 240 we are locked in cold on ecm. Fantastic start to the day again. 

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