Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Mark Neal.]

This would keep everyone happy! 

  

[Jason M]

Hmm, have a feeling that the 'dry' headline for next week might get quietly dropped soon. Insane amounts of snow on this GFS run. Looks like the models were overdoing the heights to our north, which means lower pressure plus deep cold = huge snow falls.

[kev238]

This GFS run is pretty insane 

The snowstorm at the end of the week would be historic! 

[chionomaniac]

I didn't believe the runs that showed the mild air getting north into the country by the end of next week. This is far more in line with what I would expect given the rare synoptics. Likely to be some very disruptive weather.

Salt value gone up another notch.

[Mark Neal.]

Snow depths from the 18z as we end next week. Pure conjecture. but interesting and hardly a one of showing from the models from the last 24hrs or so. 

[nick sussex]

Some outrageous weather shown on the GFS18 hrs run!

Who writes these outputs ! 

The block on this run is much better positioned , in terms of the snow moving ne , these set ups are going to cause a lot of problems in terms of forecast.

Low pressure moving ne against a block! 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by nick sussex

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

massive snowfest! kinda like what bbc were suggesting as a possibility

I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.   

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I didn't believe the runs that showed the mild air getting north into the country by the end of next week. This is far more in line with what I would expect given the rare synoptics. Likely to be some very disruptive weather.

Salt value gone up another notch.

Also the biggest thing to note is the upper high is lingering far longer on this run and isn't really weakening all that much through to 216hrs. Much more believable than the agressive runs before. 

My gut is this ends up going so far south eventually it misses us totally. However I would adore the 18z GFS set-up to come off!

[Derecho]

Right if the GFS comes into fruition I probably won't be able to visit here for a long while.



I'll be back when the power is restored and the snow has finally melted in April 

In all seriousness though, there would be crazy amounts of snow as that low meanders in the cold air for at least 48 hours!

[Gorky]

Gotta be pushing half a meter of snow on the North York Moors on the current forecast! Drifts would be significantly higher. I'm sure it can't maintain this sort of craziness in future runs, but I said that earlier this week and what I'm seeing tonight is blowing those runs out of the water! 

 

[DOdo]

1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.   

Looking at that I thought that some milder air would be pumped up but obviously not Looking at the 850s

 

[Nick F]

Blimey, 18z predicting continuous snowfall for many from Thursday evening through Friday week away as a low moving up over France decides to slowly track NW into the UK

Edited February 22, 2018 by Nick F

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Also the biggest thing to note is the upper high is lingering far longer on this run and isn't really weakening all that much through to 216hrs. Much more believable than the agressive runs before. 

My gut is this ends up going so far south eventually it misses us totally. However I would adore the 18z GFS set-up to come off!

If it misses us completely then another chance down the road is likely as it just will mean that we are in the cold air for longer. Would agree with you though.

[khodds]

I know that Low has been showing for a couple of days now, but what’s the betting it will go south? It seems to quite often correct that way if I’m remembering rightly. Or are The Synoptics different this time?

[tight isobar]

And she stalls...

Constant snow fall !!!!!!

[Rayth]

I can’t get my head around this upgrading nearer the event ! Isn’t it supposed to be ‘watered’ down ! 

Next week should be fun ! Fighting penguins for the last tin of sardines in Asda ! 

[NorthYorkMoorsSnow]

1 minute ago, Gorky said:

Gotta be pushing half a meter of snow on the North York Moors on the current forecast! Drifts would be significantly higher. I'm sure it can't maintain this sort of craziness in future runs, but I said that earlier this week and what I'm seeing tonight is blowing those runs out of the water! 

 

Aye living in Moors I'm getting excited ?

[Snowy L]

Has there ever been a chart like this before

 

 

Easterlies at 60 degrees throughout the entire hemisphere.

[80sWeather]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

massive snowfest! kinda like what bbc were suggesting as a possibility

This is on a par with the blizzard of 1881

[blizzard81]

120hr fax chart 

[pages]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

And she stalls...

Constant snow fall !!!!!!

yeah and look what is come down from the North East.. reload of the cold uppers this going to stay all snow until day 15 and beyond lol

[SMU]

so we are going into How mucn depth mode now-

First GFS run @60cm & that excludes convection really-

Edited February 22, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Catacol]

Significant chance of serious disruption now in place. I wonder how long the media forecasts will stick to "very cold - but snow amounts and location uncertain." They are correct in the strict accuracy of the statement, but are being slightly coy in withholding the truth of the situation. Convective shower activity is going to be extensive such will be the instability over the North Sea from Monday onwards, and small features are certain to crop up. 

And then we have cross model agreement for significant snowfall next week on Thursday.

ECM = heavy snow for the south

GFS = heavy snow for the south

GEM = heavy snow for the south (slight easterly bias)

UKMO looks as though the next frame for Thursday would be heavy snow for the south

ICO = heavy snow for the south (slight westerly bias)

EPS would agree

as would GEFS

As this is still a week away there is obviously room for movement, but in reality this is remarkable consistency and fits hand in glove with impact of SSW and ongoing reversal, though by Thursday at 10hpa this will have changed and we will slowly recover our westerly shape in the strat. Not that this will impact significantly on the troposphere within the next 2 weeks...

I think our roadmap is becoming clear. Significant shower activity on the near horizon and a full on SW to NE event mid to late week. Warmer air from a moderately well defined system at around 975mb bumping in to the very severe cold in place is going to set off the mother of all blizzards for somewhere.... probably France now I've posted this!!

 

 

[pages]

Just now, pages said:

yeah and look what is come down from the North East.. reload of the cold uppers this going to stay all snow until day 15 and beyond lol

o and look here comes the Artic high where is that heading back to Scandie lol we are locked in

[bobbydog]

ouch....

in todays modern fragile infrastructure, the end of next week is almost a national disaster! if it happens, this could possibly be the biggest winter weather event since 1962/63. it would become legendary in netweather (and national) history!