Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[chionomaniac]

Looks like another perfect synoptic evolution with the Iberian low moving NE giving an increased risk of snowfall to southern regions whilst driving snowbands in off the North Sea for more northern areas whilst keeping everywhere sub -10ºC 850s. I'll take that.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Most of the country not getting above - 3c

[Rob Walker]

Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe?  - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might notice

Edited February 22, 2018 by Rob Walker

[Mark Neal.]

Oh and 162hrs and 168hrs.. Gets even more unstable as pressure drops even more over UK. 

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Mark N

[Fred Sykes]

5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Especially for those in the NE, I think you'll be talking about this one for a very long time!

Yes, and the people of Portugal ?

[Mike Poole]

Holy shot where did the come from GFS T180

(Missed the I key in my excitement)

Edited February 22, 2018 by Mike Poole

[AmershamMike]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 18z models the lps- with heavy snow on the northern flank midlands southwards disruptive snowfall.

Again the track and evolve will flactuate!!!

Interesting to watch this unfold....

Not forgetting our already b4 convective scenarios!!!!

I love you tight! What does ‘flactuate’ mean?! Variable flatulence?!

[Sawel]

@Man With Beard mentioned some ECM ensembles shifting the coldest temps towards Scotland - I wonder if this is similar to what the GFS op is showing around 168hrs.

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Sawel

[weirpig]

I rarely do hyperbole but honestly forget the snow this windchill will cause serious issues  if it pans out like this this will make headline news. Very much a rare event 

Edited February 22, 2018 by weirpig

[Snowy L]

Eastern UK buried

 

[tight isobar]

Seriously what are we watching unfold lately is quite unreal!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mark Neal.]

On this run much of Northern France stays really cold uppers. 12z had the low pressure move up from Iberia and bring much less colder uppers (hardly mild! lol) This run it is very cold still. Inter run variance but still a common theme is the lp moving up from South details still to come. But encouraging for Southern areas and with the North under a unstable airflow. Win Win?

  

12Z- LEFT. 18Z RIGHT. 

[Ice Day]

Make no mistake, a proper blizzard is on the cards for next Thursday/Friday.  This would be historical in its scale if it materialises as modelled (massive 'if' of course)

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

massive snowfest! kinda like what bbc were suggesting as a possibility

[johnholmes]

flactuate!!!

Are you predicting a lot if wind then?

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

flactuate!!!

Are you predicting a lot if wind then?

Little sign of spring on the latest NOAA 50 mb ideas

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Freezing-Point]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy shot where did the come from GFS T180

Very 1991.  Snow showers turning into prolonged periods of heavy snow with drifting

[tvh3382]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

flactuate!!!

Are you predicting a lot if wind then?

Even off topic one liners from John Holmes.  John may be even ramping soon.

[Rob Walker]

5 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe?  - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might notice

Okay I think I may just have to take that back.... 


Obviously was lulled into getting twitchy there!

[kold weather]

A rare near total snow event for the UK on this run for the end of the week. Long way to go but there is IMO something of a trend towards a further lowering of pressure over W.Europe. Who knows whether that will lead to an attack from the south or whether it ends up sliding to our south and just amplifying the easterly. Both are VERY nice options to have!

Anyway well done pub run, you've produced another crazy run!!

Edited February 22, 2018 by kold weather

[Snowy L]

The NH profile is incredible. Aside from that little low over NorthWest Canada we have an almost perfectly spherical anti-vortex.

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Obviously precip will be picked up much closer to the time for details etc.. But encouraging that models such as GFS/ECM are now picking up on the cold flow, for convectional purposes even though they don't always take this account. It certainly ain't forecasting to be dry thats for sure, Troughs around, showery airstream from East. Then fronts approaching from S/SW/E. 

 

This is the predicted skew-t for Doncaster on 27 th to fit the chart shown; tops generally to about 18,000 ft

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=060a79f6cf9d87937488f22e2618cc98

No not a ramp.

Kids stuff being forecast really 1 week perhaps 10 days. Yes I vaguely remember 1947 and only too well 1962-63. 3-4 days may be fun beyond that come on spring, please.

Edited February 22, 2018 by johnholmes

[Captain Shortwave]

Well a model had to do it eventually. As predicted the models have tended to shift that low to our south further east and elongate it. But my word the GFS puts some context to real possibility of a major blizzard at the end of next week as that low edges towards us from the south. 

There is that real feeling that this spell could throw the kitchen sink at the UK. This run would probably have most of the country buried by next weekend.

[Karl83]

Wow! Nationwide snow event! Don't know about you guys but I'm ready for my snow burial!

Edited February 22, 2018 by Karl83

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Freezing-Point said:

Very 1991.  Snow showers turning into prolonged periods of heavy snow with drifting

Best snow run I have ever seen. It would possibly put 91 in the shade. The drifts certainly would anyway.