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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This now at only T96 on GFS 18z 

IMG_1730.PNG

The models have been very robust with  this setup, my word that is some serious cold east of England. :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

As Bumble would say.....'start the car'

gfsnh-0-120.png?18 gfsnh-1-120.png?18

Stunning charts, just 5 days away

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

this little beaut- will be catching my eye from here on in...

we need a northwards track...so it engages and wallop....servere impactual snowfall on landing!!!!!

18z cracking in all other departments also!!!

Screenshot_2018-02-22-22-09-26.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
5 minutes ago, pages said:

think this run is going to very different in FI pub run decided to take the main vortex towards Alaska between 96 and 114hr haven't seen this on any ensemble, block aint getting west of Greenland here.

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

The position of the high remains unchanged here. It will likely retrogress as we go further in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Heights starting to build over Greenland by 136 but the 850 chart is very different at that stage, minus twenty four as opposed to minus twelve. Stifling any northerly element?

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

144Hrs. Looks lovely!  Notice the isobars beginning to tighten across the UK (especially to the south). That system to the South closes in but edges further east in process than the previous 12z. Great heights to the NW and Greenland. 

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by Mark N
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Especially for those in the NE, I think you'll be talking about this one for a very long time!

gfs-2-162.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
15 minutes ago, SnowBallz said:

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown’ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency.

Small ramp.  Next week = mega.

SB :)

A @SnowBallz and @Team Jo ramp in the same week?...must be some sort of 10-20-30-30,000-year event approaching :D Overall consistency from the models has been exemplary today and the METO's preference for the ECM:UKMO synoptic outlook further highlight's next week's potential for an historic cold spell. GFS continues to taunt with variations on a theme but the cold's coming, that's not in doubt, the issue now is how hard it might snow and where. Too soon to say beyond general guidance oft repeated this week but for once let's enjoy the ride rather than hang ourselves with specifics in the confident knowledge model watching for the next week or two is going to be not just interesting but almost certain to pay dividends for many. Great stuff. If the Met are issuing daily guidance you can be assured the fan's about to ice over.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Brilliant tracking of that Azores low on this run. If it sets up shop in Southern France the snow machine is going to be on all day and all night from the East coast.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

A biting wind chill from the beast :cold:

156-290UK.thumb.gif.5b23a1eeb767b255b4fd352b23a4de51.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFS trying to outdo the ECM and UKMO I see...

GFSOPEU18_165_1.png

When is the point where upgrades become impossible?

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Why don’t the models do a massive ‘correction’ east and move us to Novosibirsk ! I mean we are about to get their climate so it would be easier ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Obviously precip will be picked up much closer to the time for details etc.. But encouraging that models such as GFS/ECM are now picking up on the cold flow, for convectional purposes even though they don't always take this account. It certainly ain't forecasting to be dry thats for sure, Troughs around, showery airstream from East. Then fronts approaching from S/SW/E. 

1..gif2.gif3.gif

4.gif 

Edited by Mark N
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 18z models the lps- with heavy snow on the northern flank midlands southwards disruptive snowfall.

Again the track and evolve will flactuate!!!

Interesting to watch this unfold....

Not forgetting our already b4 convective scenarios!!!!

 

 

@fluctuate!!!

?

gfs-0-168.png

Edited by tight isobar
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