Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Anyone please got ecm snow charts. I just cant believe the output. Please someone pinch me!! 

 

I wonder if steve murr is ok after server crash. Hope hes okay!

Not as good as you'd think tonight. Only places with more than a couple of inches are eastern counties and Scotland. But MASSIVE pinch of salt needed. The country would turn white eventually on the ECM 12Z no matter what the snow chart says.

[Soaring Hawk]

16 minutes ago, tinybill said:

iknow  its  fantasy world

Another blizzard *yawns* 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended remaining easterly

[bobbydog]

i showed this chart to my Land Rover and a little bit of engine wee came out.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I had the misfortune of going on TWO, anywho fantastic NWP I’ll be incredibly surprised if there is not a Thames Streamer possibly more than one. Toasty SSTs in the Thames Estuary that caught my eye. 

 

The North Sea will be a giant snow machine next week.

[thetipster]

[BleakMidwinter]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Now I'm actually a bit scared. I think the country can just about recover from 4/5 days of this. But the ECM op gives just the hint that this may go on 2 or 3 weeks, because it gets the Greenland High in the right spot, and once it gets there it might be hard to shift. If uppers stay below minus 10 for two weeks, there will be big consequences across the country. Just how long will the schools be happy to stay shut for when there's 3 inches of snow falling every day on the east coast?

How  much are the modes in agreement about the potential for 2-3 weeks?

Because it looks to novice-me like most of the recent stuff has had some kind of suggestion that this is 2-3 weeks, not 4-5 days. 

I don't suppose you could do one of your summarising things of how many models weakly or strongly suggest 1 week and how many suggest 2 or 3, could you? 

(And if schools are closed, people are off work in every other job looking after their kids... etc., etc.)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

You know it's a big one when the servers crash. Best easterly I've ever seen modelled from Perm (Russia) to Poznan to Peterborough to Pembrokeshire and then ending up in Philadelphia. Phantastic!! 

In the meantime, it's time to start getting screen wash topped up, possibly snow chains for tyres and a shovel and salt. All aboard the Siberian express!! 

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining easterly

Difficult to see how that compares with the other models at 168 - ECM 12z had the Iberian low a bit flatter and with a bit more troughing to the east at that time span...

[Dan the Man]

8 minutes ago, tinybill said:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

just look what  happens after84hr!!! i think i should email this to bbc weather !! its  day after tomorrow  weather!!

Looking at the precip chart, surely its overestimating the ability of the Atlantic to regain control, eventhough in deep FI?

[Frosty.]

While it's quiet..with only 506 members on here....Here are some welcome to spring charts from the GEFS 12z..the BEAST is coming!! 

[Snowjokes92]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not as good as you'd think tonight. Only places with more than a couple of inches are eastern counties and Scotland. But MASSIVE pinch of salt needed. The country would turn white eventually on the ECM 12Z no matter what the snow chart says.

Agreed thank you. Was just curious. No how unreliable they are.

[The Eagle]

Here she comes...

 

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

While it's quiet..with only 506 members on here....Here are some welcome to spring charts from the GEFS 12z..the BEAST is coming!! 

A few perbs in there like the ECM 12z op run - P9, 10, 17, 18, 20 etc...we're looking for that Iberian low to become 'flatter' and move somewhat east.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[chris55]

EC 120 (and the rest!) show a synoptic evolution modelled that we have not seen for some 30 years, with the orientation of the high and the associated cold pool combining to create a "Tsunami" type easterly flow.

superlatives have all been used..... so just look and behold.

Ps...

SSW....'cheers :0 

Edited February 22, 2018 by chris55

[Mike Poole]

Late to it tonight, and just starting to view the commentry here on the ECM and then the crash.  So I knew what to expect before even looking at Meteoceil!

In my view this is nearly nailed which is good because as resident weather geek, I've promised an update to work colleagues tomorrow.  Would like to see the ARPEGE issue sorted by the 0z runs - it's a decent model for the short timescale it runs for and I'd like it on board.

Aside - this event is seriously unreported in my view, particularly BBC.

looking forward to the 18z!

Edited February 22, 2018 by Mike Poole

[supernova]

Site crash arrived at the worst possible time. Wife's birthday and was forced to do the hoovering. Thankfully the distraction allowed me to view the ECM in one sitting. Jeez, did we die and go to heaven?

JMA sums up today's output pretty accurately (stella).

 

[markw2680]

Looking at next week I’m wondering when the first few schools shut due to either the freezing cold or snow, I’m thinking the conditions will start to become a problem from Monday evening, probably Monday morning for the east. Although the uppers look a little marginal ? 

[pages]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining easterly

yep looks like that low to West of Spain is taking more easterly route through Med than North -East through France on the ECM.

[Purplepixii]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Looking at next week I’m wondering when the first few schools shut due to either the freezing cold or snow, I’m thinking the conditions will start to become a problem from Monday evening, probably Monday morning for the east. Although the uppers look a little marginal ? 

Can’t imagine it will take long for them to start closing, I was shocked to find out that some close because they can’t afford to heat the buildings in this severe weather. Shocking state of affairs!

[Eastnorthwest]

Evening each

Well the beast is coming,it's going to get in cold terms like Feb 1991

Now starts the fun ,looking at charts for where the snow will fall and when 

At the moment it's looking like Tuesday onwards starting in the east ,moving across most parts on Wednesday and lasting till at least the following weekend 

A proper cold spell coming for most of us with some seeing more  snow than others ,bit early to say where but the east and southeast look favourite at this stage 

Injoy the coming weather and stay safe,

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m. not  a mod but the thread is drifting away from model discussion and analysis - that’s not an invitation to have a punfest either unless your post is model related! 

Indeed, it' sno fun when you come on here looking for the 192 18z and cant find it under the snizzle. 

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remaining easterly

Putting this chart together with the uppers on the T144... probably the coldest run yet at T168

[Team Jo]

Oh haaaaai

We've been very liberal with the topic drift this eve, there's obviously a LOT of excitement in here tonight, can I just ask that before the pub run rolls and everyone goes bananas that general winter commentary/IMBY etc goes in the appropriate thread........

Ta!

[karlos1983]

ICON rolling out and looks almost identical to its 12z. Perhaps just a smidge south. A smidge!!!