Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[SMU]

216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

 

[Stu_London]

The feature running across the south remains a bit high risk as the uppers across the channel demonstrate. We should be ok but folk in southern counties wouldn’t want it deepening or been modelled much further north

[stratty]

1 minute ago, Rickoza said:

Looks like reload to me after the worst of this one passes through.  Going to be a busy time at the football with all the up-and-coming postponements I'm sure.

...........yeah, might have to go into next season at this rate!!!

[Ayrshire weather]

Second attack at +216 please forgive I'm new to this so a little unsure looks a mix between NE and E winds!

[chionomaniac]

WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all!

My salt must have tripled in price!

[tight isobar]

Yep..the feature dumps its load..!!!

The helps converts another easterly in flow....

 

[terrier]

Wow just wow gfs ukmo ecm absolutely epic. If these come anywhere close we will be digging ourselves out this time next week. 

[Jason M]

Well, the ECM has raised the bar again tonight. To sustain that depth of cold this late in the season is amazing. . 

[Stuie]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all!

My salt must have tripled in price!

Who the hell wants frozen salt?

[Optimus Prime]

An astonishingly cold and off the scale 850 hPa temperature anomaly across the majority of Great Britain on Wednesday:

Indicating cold upper air temperatures ranging between -15°c and -18°c. Very close to January 1987.

[ICE COLD]

And T240 it keeps coming ?

[Rayth]

***** warning ⚠️ ***** warning ⚠️ *****

given current model output 

this app may implode next week 

 

 

[Anti-Mild]

I wonder if this is how January 7th 1987 would have been if the internet and Netweather had been around!

This is amazing but it's also starting to get a little worrying, especially for the elderly and homeless.

[Paul]

20 minutes ago, Crashlanding said:

Chart porn defo on the cards here so the anticipation is killing me!

 

are there any models on here (i cant find any, maybe looking in the wrong place) for Wind Chill temps? 

potentially a eventful week on the way!

We have them on the viewers (GFS and Netwx Models) in NW Extra if you still have a sub  

Looking a tad chilly on them

[ukpaul]

9 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is that just for southern and central areas 

Not at all, look at 850s winds and instability, good for much further north. I think the 12z is less of a snowmaker at that point, however, but it would lock in extended cold, so swings and roundabouts.

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all!

My salt must have tripled in price!

I think your salt has risen higher than the zimbabwian inflation rate ! 

[Snowy L]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

 

Was just thinking that, t192 looks incredibly cold overnight for Scotland.

 

 

[markw2680]

This Is all looking quite ridiculous lol, seriously how are we all going to cope? I CANT BLOODY WAIT!!! Bring it on..

think this is going to be like 91 but I was only 11 so looking forward to this jobby 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

216 Another record perhaps - While the reload 'loads "" ' then -20c at the surface ( shawbrook springs to mind )

 

lowest I can find is -16.9 in the e Scottish glens @ T162

 

[LRD]

I'll admit it, a little bit of wee nearly came out when I saw this...

 

 

[Buzz]

9 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

The feature running across the south remains a bit high risk as the uppers across the channel demonstrate. We should be ok but folk in southern counties wouldn’t want it deepening or been modelled much further north

That's incorrect. May I very strongly suggest that you read the following post:

It's very well written and highly informative. In fact, anyone with the slightest bit of interest in cold and snow would do well to read it.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Buzz

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Fingers said:

Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

Did this a while back. 1987 got virtually minus 20 uppers. 1991: minus 16. 2010 can't remember exactly at the moment but I think around minus 12. 2013 briefly hit minus 14.

The forecast spell best matches 1991, but it will be better because the cold pool is far bigger this time.

@feb1991blizzard you may have to change your name to march2018blizzard!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

State of emergency is not even out of the question on that ECM run. No doubt about it, that run would cause absolute chaos. 

[mulzy]

23 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Blizzard pushing up from the South...

It doesn't quite happen on this run as most of the precipitation stays in France, but this is a theme going forward in the day 8-10 range.

[Long haul to mild]

22 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

HP further north on ARPEGE 12z compared to 0z run. Still not there but a welcomed northward correction.

Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North.

I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it?