Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

You know that excellent post/article John Holmes has produced regarding all the parameters needed for snow. 

Forget it.

It’s going to be snowing on the beaches. 

‘so long as thas got something’s moist over thas head is gona be white’

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm @96..

And the back feed-cold looks well alingned ..as the flow is: 

I think by now we can guess where we are heading....yet another peach in the making!!!

ECM0-96.gif

ECM1-96.gif

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

Gosh these outputs have given me pause for thought. Anyone else struck at how small, vulnerable and defenceless Britain and Ireland look with these huge Siberian Snow Devils advancing upon us?  (I’m not ashamed to admit I’m beginning to feel some trepidation and unease if any of these deliver all those kinky snow lines).

Oh and if the models do deliver such awesome/phenomenal/Just Wow/:help: (take your pick/delete as applicable) snowfest chaos and there are the inevitable power cuts, no-one will be able to come in here and obsess about how quickly the GFS brings in the mild.  We’ll have to actually go outside in it. Hmm, have you thought about that ? ?

 

5679D639-FB06-4358-9DF9-EF5C2D8F8B3B.png

D51F853F-1EFD-4212-943B-D15405BAE83D.png

11EC23C5-68F2-45FD-B660-34776689DC60.gif

50A62F5D-359B-4E03-B5D2-017E56381785.png

47403498-0EA9-4584-84C3-1F6CB360B119.png

Edited by Soaring Hawk
Spilling mistake
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Truly Epic GEFS 12z mean next week..the BEAST is very hungry and wants to devour the uk!!:D:cold-emoji:

21_120_850tmp.png

21_144_850tmp.png

21_144_2mtmpmax.png

21_168_850tmp.png

21_168_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_850tmp.png

21_192_2mtmpmax.png

21_216_850tmp.png

21_216_2mtmpmax.png

21_240_850tmp.png

21_240_2mtmpmax.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

With this cold spell now looking increasingly likely to verify, if the UKMO have got this modelled correctly where do we think this will sit in the pantheon of easterlys? On a par with '91? '87? Dare I suggest '47?  :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Here comes another special ECM run...120hrs is just amazing and the pulse of upper cold air is coming our way, looks likeits shifted northwards a little over the past 3 runs which is no bad thing for the north.

Also 120hrs has that nice feature drifting westwards across N.England with a decent easterly flow.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

With this cold spell now looking increasingly likely to verify, if the UKMO have got this modelled correctly where do we think this will sit in the pantheon of easterlys? On a par with '91? '87? Dare I suggest '47?  :D

same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

nice @tall paul

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

Oh sweet jesus.  +144 is a peach.

ECM1-144.GIF?22-0ECM0-144.GIF?22-0

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
1 hour ago, starstream said:

Do a good deed, if you can afford it and you think an elderly person is struggling , or even if they're not..... pop a tenner in an envelope and a note with an anonymous good wishes, keep warm note.

 

And pop in to make sure they are warm enough and have enough food. Meals on Wheels, if they can deliver are often late in adverse weather conditions. Older adults are frightened to go out in icy conditions in case they fall and break something so often stay indoors alone. Isolation and loneliness is a health hazard as much as physical problems. 

Sorry mods, I probably shouldn’t have put this here. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

144hrs on this ECM is almost back to where it was forecasting 48hrs ago. So we've had several days of runs where the models forecasted either too far north or south, and in truth they are coming to an agreement bang in the middle.

Hope everyone is ready for the coldest spell since Dec 10...

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

same as 87 spread over 4 days - slightly warmer by day !

nice @tall paul

Sounds perfect to me 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

Chart porn defo on the cards here so the anticipation is killing me!

 

are there any models on here (i cant find any, maybe looking in the wrong place) for Wind Chill temps? 

potentially a eventful week on the way!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

At 168 the perfect retrogression has occured:

ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

Siberian cold pool about to be resupplied....oh my.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Blizzard pushing up from the South...

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.3e756218fa875998686b2a6499050012.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.58f79de20dcbaa34c0e55eb886951b7c.png

Edited by Day 10
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...