Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Weathizard]

Just now, Day 10 said:

There's your dry Easterly!

Anyone who has said it will be dry is a plonker! ? I'm slightly worried given my location that in the flow projected we have the shortest sea track.

[Captain Shortwave]

When it comes to snow, whilst the north sees the highest height, you also have the largest sea track hence the need for lower heights is reduced.

   

Outrageous chart for Wednesday, easterly winds for all and you can see the low heights lurking to the north of Scandinavia which will begin to interact with the cold pool of Europe to steer the winds north easterly at day 7.

The GFS is interesting with those upstream complications, they might not be a bad thing here as all the cold air was being pulled quickly into the Atlantic, that low escaping might hold the high a little more south and east and allow a better solution later on.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

WOW did the UKMO just do that? The capital would be buried great flow!

More to it than just the flow and the instability Daniel but we are getting closer to having five numbers and the bonus ball ....... won’t see the last number drawn until early next week !

[Southender]

GFS is a stonker as well. That Azores LP...yeah jog on mate that isn't spoiling the fun on this run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Phwaor! UKMO 144 is a humdinger

Chart of the week...

Absolute ripper!

Lovely straight, clean flow... 

[ICE COLD]

GFS T144 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 138...

The flow steadfast..and unstable the mass snow potential gaining run-run..

Crazy stuff!!

[pages]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS complicating matters with that low west of Iceland

That's what we want surely that low will stop the high pressure getting to far West (west base -NAO) long term. plus also splitting the low to west of Spain more energy going under this GFS is going to best run yet.

[mulzy]

If there's one model that you want to show picture perfect synoptics, it is the UKMO and boy does it deliver!

What a chart!!

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS bringing the love with countrywide snow

I actually wonder if that is daytime convection building up because of the cold air overhead with now strong sunshine because by the 1:00 m charts, any PPN isore confined to eastern areas? 

GFS is perfect in terms of the angle of the cold unstable airflow, UKMO is almost there, much better than this time yesterday.

[Mucka]

More snow. I'm beginning to believe..

[Norrance]

14 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ukmo perfect for England and Wales, not so great for Scotland. 

The longer Sea track will see us alright with these temperatures! At least those to the East of the mountains.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Norrance

[karlos1983]

GFS none to shabby at 144 either

#ohmydaysineedaliedownimgoingtoselfcombust 

[SLEETY]

Models are upgrading this  cold weather as it enters the reliable time frame,normally it’s the other way around 

[ICE COLD]

GFS T156 oh my days ?

[Staffordshire]

Southerly trend? Not anymore, that 144hr UKMO is phenomenal, and looks like the GFS is going to try and out do it at 150hr...

[winterof79]

 

ICON 144Z

UKMO 144Z

GFS getting there at 150 ish

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by winterof79

[Sawel]

Another incredible run coming out from the GFS - particularly for us north of the border. The UKMO is a good improvement on this mornings run as it would give heavy snow showers to eastern Scotland but the GFS keeps churning out absolutely stonking charts for up here!

[Stormeh]

14 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ukmo perfect for England and Wales, not so great for Scotland. 

With uppers of -12 and plenty of precipitation in the North Sea Scotland will do very well

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I actually wonder if that is daytime convection building up because of the cold air overhead with now strong sunshine because by the 1:00 m charts, any PPN isore confined to eastern areas? 

GFS is perfect in terms of the angle of the cold unstable airflow, UKMO is almost there, much better than this time yesterday.

Embedded trough (unstable flow) just West of Scotland - shows up in the 2nd chart as a tiny blob of slightly less cold air somewhere near Aberdeen.

[bluearmy]

Gfs getting better now finding more features that the other models have. (Icelandic shortwave ). We may have found a point where it is likely to be more reliable on the upcoming pattern 

EDIT : or maybe it’s juts going to become more confused by dealing with two variable flows at the same time !

Edited February 22, 2018 by bluearmy

[North Norfolk coast]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

U.K.  meto omfg Can’t imagine conditions looking at ukmo 144 heavy snow showers drifting in gale force ,bone chilling Easterly winds is my forecast,just insane  

That is very insane, and quite worrying if you have no choice but to be out and about that day...

[ICE COLD]

GFS T162 -16 850s widespread in the south ?

[Runcible Spoon]

10 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

You don't see this everyday, 144 ukmo 

 

That puts us bang smack in the firing line for that deep cold.

It feels flipping freezing out today, but next week is gonna be almost of the chart - literally.

[tight isobar]

Unbeleivable!!!

Gfs...

Trumps its sister suite 12z/6z..

Quite simply stunning!!!