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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no chance of temps that low (-25c). nights aren't long enough. lowest temp on the ec op was -12c (strongish flow also)

What I meant is the synoptics being shown are similar to 2010 rather than the actual temps but I said it's looking very extreme and that's true..it is looking remarkable for the end of winter into early spring..a very good chance of very disruptive snowfalls and sub zero maxima with penetrating frosts.:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, terrier said:

Don’t forget regarding any break downs that cold air is a lot denser than mild air. So can see once we are locked into the easterly I can see the cold air taking some shifting to be honest. :cold:

 Yes indeed. The best analogy I've heard is imagine  the cold air is syrup on a plate. Try washing that plate by running warm water over the top. The thick syrup clings on and only slowly erodes away.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastleigh, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and stormy, cold and icy!
  • Location: Eastleigh, Hampshire

Just thought I’d add some anecdotal comments to this thread re the potential for milder air to come in over the latter part of next week. I recall December 2010 when it was initially meant to get milder towards the end of the year but the cold block never actually shifted from north Scotland if anyone remembers that? I also recall another cold spell (perhaps 1997?) when the Atlantic did come back in but temperatures remained very low with ice days the following week despite fronts passing through. There my conclusion is that this frigid cold air / uppers once established will be very hard to shift thereafter for the immediate foreseeable. It certainly looks the real deal and surpassed my expectations of a slack easterly feed at best a week or so back. 

Also as another separate comment (on off lurker) I’ve appreciated the emotion with the ups and downs amongst the more serious model analysis. Granted one or two posts are a little OTT and no need for the arguing but overall it does provide some context to the thread for me personally even if some also like to cherrypick the most suitable charts to their personal circumstances. 

For me, my first memory of a memorable easterly other than 1991 is mid February 1994 which although relatively short, am surprised never gets a mention or referred to in the historical archives. At this juncture I’m very much looking forward to next week and the surprises (even let downs it could bring). Thank you to all for the informative posts - from a lurkers perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
16 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

High resolution 00z NMM to Monday night (temp 850 hpa)

tempresult_jow9.gif 

 

One of my friends is going to Stockholm next week - better tell him to take his thermals..

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

If that's true it provides further evidence of the unlikely depth to this incoming frigidity.

5a8ed036c2e71_ScreenShot2018-02-22at14_11_32.thumb.png.d52025f97fe7fdc859e81fe157401215.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

OMFG the GFS 06Z is utterly amazing, at least until Friday which is as far as it’s worth looking atm.

It just struck me how good these runs actually are. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
18 minutes ago, supernova said:

If that's true it provides further evidence of the unlikely depth to this incoming frigidity.

5a8ed036c2e71_ScreenShot2018-02-22at14_11_32.thumb.png.d52025f97fe7fdc859e81fe157401215.png

That chart confused me a bit until I realised that the scale down the right is not temperature anomaly, but standard deviation. So England, Wales, and Ireland are forecast to be 2.5-3 sigma below average. 4+ below for the Alps too, which is what Carinthian was discussing.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
35 minutes ago, terrier said:

Don’t forget regarding any break downs that cold air is a lot denser than mild air. So can see once we are locked into the easterly I can see the cold air taking some shifting to be honest. :cold:

I've often heard that said but have often wondered how then the bitter cold that places like New York get subject to every now and then seem to be so easily moved aside?  Didn't have a max temperature over zero for the 8 days of this year but by the 11th the temps were 12C max and 5C min.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I've often heard that said but have often wondered how then the bitter cold that places like New York get subject to every now and then seem to be so easily moved aside?  Didn't have a max temperature over zero for the 8 days of this year but by the 11th the temps were 12C max and 5C min.

Partly to do with the fact that they have a continental climate. They can and do see wild swings in temperature over a short space of time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

That chart confused me a bit until I realised that the scale down the right is not temperature anomaly, but standard deviation. So England, Wales, and Ireland are forecast to be 2.5-3 sigma below average. 4+ below for the Alps too, which is what Carinthian was discussing.

You're right. Also fits in well with Ventrice's recent comments about AO tanking by minus three sigma (current record 2.7 I think). Could be a record breaker this one.

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7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I've often heard that said but have often wondered how then the bitter cold that places like New York get subject to every now and then seem to be so easily moved aside?  Didn't have a max temperature over zero for the 8 days of this year but by the 11th the temps were 12C max and 5C min.

Isn't that because alot of time they get really cold air moving through it is from a high pressure already sinking and moving through the country where as this is an actual block setting up

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, stokepa31 said:

I think we just need to get the cold landed and then see what happens as the short term forecasts develop from there. Still a long way to go before saying im not getting anything type statements

Exactly! In a couple of days we can start looking at the euro 4 precipitation charts. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Exactly! In a couple of days we can start looking at the euro 4 precipitation charts. 

 

Yes, already showing how the DP's are set to plummet as early as Saturday!!

image.thumb.png.65e3afec8319d99e48089ce51e7de071.png18022406_2206.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
56 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The beast has just taken Moscow:ninja:

I'll be in Warsaw from tonight until Monday the 5th of March. Will try to do some updates in the thread I created in Weather Around the World so you can get some news from the belly of the beast. Well, at least further into his belly that is, he is a very long beast and stretches all the way across Siberia.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, already showing how the DP's are set to plummet as early as Saturday!!

image.thumb.png.65e3afec8319d99e48089ce51e7de071.png18022406_2206.gif

The DP on my weather station at home is already at -2c & temp is currently 4.8c

Cold is already setting in, can easily see DP's as low as -10c or lower next week.

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Anyway we are ???? towards a major wintry spell..surely now model confidence showing a direct hit from the Beast on the 00z / 6z will prove to be right from now on with the high further north and severe weather for all!:):cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ICON looking pretty identical to it's 06 run

iconnh-0-48.png?22-12iconnh-0-54.png?22-06

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

One of the questions for the 12z runs is to see how many create the smalll Icelandic shortwave and if they do, does it escape north to drop into or put pressure on the block or is it simply ejected nw with the retrogressive pattern 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One of the questions for the 12z runs is to see how many create the smalll Icelandic shortwave and if they do, does it escape north to drop into or put pressure on the block or is it simply ejected nw with the retrogressive pattern 

Time frame BA?

is it this one ere

6EFAA2A9-3647-4D85-B75F-5FDE307791F2.thumb.jpeg.204fb823a766e5f61de9cb4aed9fb65c.jpeg

Edited by karlos1983
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