Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[mrmonopoly]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

What model are you referring to . And it's definitely snowy on various days next week .?

Not really snowy in south wales on the GFS that I been looking at. Looks pretty sunny but freezing. I am still confused about the azores low people keep referencing on the runs it pushes the cold back out to over the continent  

[Weathizard]

I don't buy this but if we take it at face value in the ensembles the trend is well on the way up longer term...

Edited February 22, 2018 by Weathizard

[Summer Sun]

Below is a GIF of ICON's 06z snow charts for early next week don't take these as a given as we are still some time off yet in weather terms

[ScottishSnowStorm]

2 minutes ago, mrmonopoly said:

Not really snowy in south wales on the GFS that I been looking at. Looks pretty sunny but freezing. I am still confused about the azores low people keep referencing on the runs it pushes the cold back out to over the continent  

ECM shows a possible period of snow working across from the east maybe one to watch 

[FENDER.]

I'm wondering about night time minimum temperatures. Clear sky's and slack winds over deep snowfields. If its records your after, any chance of beating

13 December 1981

Shawbury

Midlands

-25.2 °C

[SteveB]

1 minute ago, Fender.. said:

I'm wondering about night time minimum temperatures. Clear sky's and slack winds over deep snowfields. If its records your after, any chance of beating

13 December 1981

Shawbury

Midlands

-25.2 °C

Records are there to be broken, lets hope plenty are this coming week.

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, mrmonopoly said:

How is it snowy with a preassure of 1020mb over wales

Not an exact science as other factors come into play but 1020 should be perfectly okay with this depth of cold. If it were 1030 or above that starts to become more of a problem re snow.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Below is a GIF of ICON's 06z snow charts for early next week don't take these as a given as we are still some time off yet in weather terms

Abundant and possibly very impressive Thames streamer from London to Portsmouth/Solent and further north, a wash streamer giving the midlands a shout, and possibly a Humber streamer too. I'm liking this a lot! 

Not sure if it's me, but it feels like we are already on the cusp of it, as its feeling very nippy and that continental look about things! Crisp, cold and quite clear. 

[Purga]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I don't buy this but if we take it at face value in the ensembles the trend is well on the way up longer term...

Not according to the latest METO extended forecast it isn't - quite the contrary in fact!

That gives me more confidence than the ever varying GEFs in the current uncharted scenario we find ourselves in.

[Frosty.]

Most of the GEFS 6z hold on to the bitterly cold snowy weather until the end of next week followed by some snowy breakdowns then milder but some stay cold and others then show a return to very wintry weather further into march but obviously i'm hoping for a prolonged freeze with plenty of snow..looks like I will get my wish!

[kold weather]

Good icon 06z. As it's a high resolution model it clocks the thames snow streamer. Super runs this morning.

[Geordiesnow]

Pleased too see the UKMO has improved on its drier easterly output that it shown yesterday but despite this morning runs, I still can't say with full on certainty we will see a full on convective easterly  just yet, especially the further North you are. It does seem like the main bulk will still head into France but hopefully the ripple affect as shown by the ECM in particular comes into play.

No doubt it will turn quite cold for the time of year with the coldest air across southern and eastern areas, it's just will we get enough instability to produce the sunshine and snow shower set up? 

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, Purga said:

Not according to the latest METO extended forecast it isn't - quite the contrary in fact!

That gives me more confidence than the ever varying GEFs in the current uncharted scenario we find ourselves in.

Oh don't get me wrong I don't buy the GEFS at the best of times let alone with the complexity of everything going on at the moment but it's something to note, I'd still prefer to have them inside obviously.

Yeah Meto update is good, however it does include an update about milder periods in the south west which COULD indicate that they see something similar to what the GEFS is showing at the moment.

[Norrance]

15 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Not an exact science as other factors come into play but 1020 should be perfectly okay with this depth of cold. If it were 1030 or above that starts to become more of a problem re snow.

In 1987 Kinross got 45 cms under a pressure of 1035 and many parts of East and Central Scotland between 30 and 55cms between 1030 and 1035. Plenty moisture in the North Sea!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

2018 v 2010 LET THE BATTLE COMMENCE

[Panayiotis]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Below is a GIF of ICON's 06z snow charts for early next week don't take these as a given as we are still some time off yet in weather terms

 

Bristol channel streamer aswell for Cardiff

Edited February 22, 2018 by Panayiotis

[Dunlop Dave]

Quite liking those ppn charts for the Channel Islands. We seem to do well out those channel streamers

[Frosty.]

I think next week will rival or beat anything we saw in 2010 / 2013..The models are showing really extreme conditions for the time of year, what an ending to winter and then early spring will be like deep mid winters of old!

[weatherguy]

31 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I don't buy this but if we take it at face value in the ensembles the trend is well on the way up longer term...

A case of temperature scale skewing perceptions; it's always going to trend warmer when -15c is the main cluster in the reliable! 

[Somerset Squall]

I don't think we need to be too worried about quick breakdowns just yet. I may be remembering incorrectly but I thought the models back in December 2010 constantly called for quicker Atlantic returns and look what happened there!

Edited February 22, 2018 by Somerset Squall

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I think next week will rival or beat anything we saw in 2010 / 2013..The models are showing really extreme conditions for the time of year, what an ending to winter and then early spring will be like deep mid winters of old!

no chance of temps that low (-25c). nights aren't long enough. lowest temp on the ec op was -12c (strongish flow also)

[John88B]

28 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yeah Meto update is good, however it does include an update about milder periods in the south west which COULD indicate that they see something similar to what the GEFS is showing at the momen

 That sounds to me like possible battleground situations from the south west. That'll do me!

 

28 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by John88B

[BleakMidwinter]

31 minutes ago, Purga said:

the current uncharted scenario we find ourselves in.

Uncharted charts, eh? 

Every time I think the next run will be less exciting, it's goes the other way to be even more exciting... 

And what's even better for me, is that the last few days I have been able to learn SO MUCH more than in the last few years, because people have really been discussing points, posting charts and explaining what the thing is in this chart that backs their theory, or posting a series of charts to show how something develops, or summarising a whole run into percentages for this, that and the other... THANKYOU ALL!

[terrier]

Don’t forget regarding any break downs that cold air is a lot denser than mild air. So can see once we are locked into the easterly I can see the cold air taking some shifting to be honest. 

[supernova]

23 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

2018 v 2010 LET THE BATTLE COMMENCE

Bring it on. 

Certainly 2010 remains the best winter snowfall in Lincolnshire since anything I saw in the 70's and 80's. Based on this morning's GFS ensembles for the same area there are a few perts that could run it close. (Rob K on TWO posted this table for Oxfordshire this morning - clicking my area raised an eyebrow or two). Actually this new table from Meteociel is well handy - think @lorenzo talked about it on here the other day and I've started using it regularly to get a quick handle on ENS fundamentals. 

 

Edited February 22, 2018 by supernova