Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Messing around with shortwaves mid Atlantic as per gem 

A little worry as i think it’s been very good this winter. Has been showing this for a couple of runs now. Only a minor worry for now though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Comparing ARPEGE 12z to 00z the -8 line is only clipping the SE corner on this run

Today 00z

arpegeeur-0-102.thumb.png.68eb85f7615b814314d21ee78ac11a7f.pngarpegeeur-1-102.thumb.png.ec84346d5bdf9bf719bc55bd5a0fd715.png

Last night 12z

arpegeeur-0-114.thumb.png.5491d3baf7712c60bcd439d39e91f438.pngarpegeeur-1-114.thumb.png.aec9b8703d6fdbb51168bddabb888d13.png

 

but the -12 line is much closer....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
16 hours ago, frosty ground said:

19th ECM 12zECM1-216.GIF?00EDM1-216.GIF?00
20th ECM 12zECM1-192.GIF?00EDM1-192.GIF?00
21st ECM 0zECM1-168.GIF?00EDM1-168.GIF?00

22nd ECM 0z ECM1-144.GIF?22-12EDM1-144.GIF?22-12

So the high moved west from the 19th to the 20th, then the high moves back west from the 20th to the 21st......

The upper high actually migrates (north over those three runs, the 21st looks more like the 19th.

there is no trend, so to predict anything from that is well..... a folly. (or a troll)

Added the means too......

Just wondering if Ian would like to actually reply to this post, rather than ignoring it. i've even added todays 0z run.

There was  no trend was there Ian?

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Another run and We're in Jim

Cold  Very Cold uppers arriving 

gfs-1-102.png?6

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nowt wrong here...

Another stella run in the offing.

Deep cold penertrating uk bound....

 

Edit gfs 6z @120.

A very open reverse-mobile-flow...

Again: deep cold eyeing uk shores

 

gfs-0-108.png

gfs-1-108.png

gfs-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Every GFS run the high seems to get saggier and more reluctant to cut off, I know it's fussy I'd just like to see a cleaner evolution.

Its a mess of shortwaves as usual when it comes to getting HLB

Edited by Weathizard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: t h e p e a k d i s t r i c t
  • Location: t h e p e a k d i s t r i c t
1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again....

Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Nice perspective from WRF. Tomorrow's run likely to become a popular screensaver...

tempresult_weg2.gif

Yes and in the last few frames you can see a surge of even colder air heading our way with what appears to be little to stop it

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
1 minute ago, Comandante said:

Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.

Well it's been sniffing around the ops for some time now. If only it could go straight under the block instead of swinging winds round to SE direction eventually ushering in milder air. Just have to keep watch on this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: t h e p e a k d i s t r i c t
  • Location: t h e p e a k d i s t r i c t

Can't see any backtracking now from this westerly nudge everything has had over the last 24 hours. Could well be heading for a westerly -NAO pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again....

If you can guarantee that uppers won’t get above zero and surface flow will remain se then it can get as close as it likes! However, it’s the ultimate ‘high risk = high reward ‘ on this upcoming pattern and if we get it to run up the channel and pull the deep cold back in behind then as long as it doesn’t rejig the neg NAO too far west it’s the best evolution !

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...