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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM great for snow and very cold but a bit more risky later on.

The UKMO looks more likely to extend the cold given its T168hrs chart. It looks like a good chance of a direct hit of that purple blob in the North Sea.

I agree with BA though the models are still messing around with shortwaves to the nw which effect the block set up and so I think we need to wait to tonight to nail things down.

The GEM looks a bit strange and I think an outlier solution given the others.

The GFS isn’t as good as the Euros and so let’s hope that backtracks during the day.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

can we just not enjoy this maybe historic cold spell and not worry when the breakdown is going to happen,which it will eventually anyway

Yeah, by May I think we will be ready for something warmer!:D

There has already been some astonishing model output but honestly, this mornings is the best yet!!..we are on the cusp of something out of this world here guys..:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Wow nearly chocked on my cornflakes this morning. What stunning runs from both the ukmo and ecm with frigid easterly winds and lots of snow showers packing into the east coast and pushing further inland at times. Gfs not quiet as good as the euros but still blooming chilly. Great start to the day all round. :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

can we just not enjoy this maybe historic cold spell and not worry when the breakdown is going to happen,which it will eventually anyway

You can do as you like, that's the best thing about being an individual with choices. 

The problems only really start when people tell others what to think and do.

That's politics for ya.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Cross model upgrades this morning with the Ely strengthened and most models showing a fairly swift evolution without  a mild blip into a NEly or Nly towards net end of next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Having had another look at the UKMO T168hrs chart it does indeed look like some support for the GEM solution with a weak shortwave heading south and two highs one to the nw and one to the east.

Using the evolution upto T144hrs and with what we can see of the UKMO at T168hrs this is my rough idea of the T168hrs chart.

The green S is the  shortwave:

UN144-21.thumb.gif.4cd05e843ed7d2d34426a0d35be01922.gif

The UKMO though is a bit slower with the block to the nw and because of that the deep cold gets in before the shortwave starts dropping south.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Further to the above we have just been issued with our mountain temperature projections for next Tuesday morning & Wednesday, -23c at 2000m and -29c at 3000m, that's a incredible depth of cold air . The minimum in the sink hole of the Rauris valley under the Gross Glockner Massif where I will be could go as low as -27c ! If that's the case, will be the coldest temp I have witnessed andt would beat my experience spent in British Columbia.

 C

 

I'm in Ischgl next week so been keeping an eye on the  temps forecast there for a while and they've been crashing through the floor lately compared to a week ago.

Indicative I think of the way the cold pool is extending which can only be good when it comes to how it impacts the UK in the future

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I agree with others - get the cold in first, then worry. We’ve seen how tough the models have found resolving this I. The first place, I can’t see that shifting it all on will be any easier. Lots of inertia in that cold pool, it’ll be tough to move!

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The uppers spread stays just about ok - though would expect things to be corrected as the ‘poorer cluster’ ebbs away from the modelling and we see how the Iberian trough interact with the growing sceuro trough. The s word should begin to noticeably increase in the forecasts today 

 

Hope that S word follows on with NOW and not HIT.

Fantastic output this morning and i feel we are all about there up to D6 so getting progressively colder into the weekend with snow showers from sunday becoming more widespread into the new working week (Not for me as on leave) and perhaps if the flow aligns favourably these showers merging into longer periods of snow. As some poster mentioned Germany reporting that they expect 50cms from shower convection I would not be surprised to see them totals perhaps more to be heard in the UK as we’ve seen in the past the north sea can be a brilliant snow making machine if the flow aligns favourably upon your location.

Plenty to be positive about if it’s the S word we’re after.

Edited by london-snow
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Morning all☺️

Solid outputs again for the onset of the real cold from around Monday. 

Unfortunately a couple of posts have been removed. Met office stuff has it's own thread, only your views in here please all. 

Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

A repeat of spring 2013 again but this is a direct powdery snowy showery easterly,cold pool 1991.

After that anything could happen with lows pushing in,ECM is a belter.

Infact theres no end to the bitter easterly in sight,thats the GFS.

Expect lots of drifting on hills.

Recm1681.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm in Ischgl next week so been keeping an eye on the  temps forecast there for a while and they've been crashing through the floor lately compared to a week ago.

Indicative I think of the way the cold pool is extending which can only be good when it comes to how it impacts the UK in the future

Remember to keep your lips away from the chairlift metal bits !  Not sure what my Brit friends will make of it all when they land in Salzburg this Saturday. Think they will be in for a bit of a shock, not very often your get extreme temperature profile as what is predicted in the Alps next week. 

C

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at D6 and extended show shower activity starting to pick up 

ukm2.2018022800_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5c8f0638c32ce2e05a1da4795221f8e7.pngukm2.2018030100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.407826989b650e67ffb77ec3899b541d.png

 

Yes Summer Sun,the tightening of the isobars down south seem to follow ECM model at 168t and that will make it damn cold !  We will now have to wait to see what develops in the flow to the East and possibly South. UK could be attacked from both directions in the longer term. Now that would be crazy snow scenario but as you know snow prediction is still too far out at the moment.

C

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Icon takes aim of colder wedge of uppers/850s @the uk..

Very nicely placed-alignment...

As the beast begins to ROAR!!

ICON 6Z...

 

Edit, it just gets better as she rolls..

Some staggering cold euro wide!!!

Over to the gfs 6z...

icon-0-78.png

icon-1-78.png

icon-1-99.png

Edited by tight isobar
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