Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Banbury]

The low actually retreats on D10 

Somewhere would be in BIG trouble if it stalled and moved away 

[KTtom]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Somewhere is getting buried in several feet of snow on this chart. Incredible.

Yes, a bit of a theme here...having said that, a weeks freeze with frequent snow events, followed by a snowstorm will probably be enough for me....and the wildlife, so wouldn't  grumble with a relaxation of the cold afterwards.

Edited February 22, 2018 by KTtom

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

With a decades woth of snow 

If you handed me that run now I’d say thank you very much and have a wonderful spring ???

You can’t blame this west-sussexer for marginality phobia though. If this spell isn’t ‘epic’, this winter will otherwise be epic down here for the sheer number of cold rain ‘events’! 

[carinthian]

Morning all from a freezing snowy Austria. Those model runs this morning are just amazing run for cold lovers. My pick is the ECM 850mb temp profile for Thursday at 168t, incredible cold in the south with the added wind chill factor. Nearer the more reliable time span the updated fax shows the 528 dam close to SE Britain on Sunday which looks an advanced solution to colder air mass getting into the mainland. A bit quicker than previous runs, so you could start to see light snowfall early Sunday based on that input.

C

[Gustywind]

West based -NAO by 240, so not sure how much longer cold spell would last after that, but epic snow storm prior to this.

[MattStoke]

Ignore the less cold uppers into the south late on. After days of intense cold and a continental air source, uppers no longer matter. Also, it’s a long way off and unlikely to go like that anyway. This blocked, cold pattern is going nowhere fast.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Not a good trend for the beginning of March if you want prolonged cold spell. I guess ECM op is on the same page as GEFS. There could be some wild swings in temperatures for Europe next week.

LOL, seriously. The ECM is quite literally the only model showing a warmer solution for Europe into the first week of March in the 00z output. Next week is nailed on frigid by all of the experts and meteorological agencies. Show me some charts that prove your 'mild trend.'

[Rayth]

This place is worse than a catwalk in Milan for trends !

Yesterday the TREND was the cold pool was heading south to Tunisia , today’s TREND is Europe is going into the tropics at day 10 

meanwhile the real trend is a cold lovers paradise ! I despair at times I really do ! 

Edited February 22, 2018 by Raythan

[MattStoke]

Computer models are poor for convection, and I find the ECM to be one of the worst at picking it out. So the fact it is showing this snow coverage by the end of next week is impressive. Ignore the detail. It just shows that snow is possible anywhere next week (Although where it actually falls no-one can say this far out). It also shows how the system from the south would be all snow.

[Man With Beard]

The ECM op this morning has actually been in the ensembles for a couple of days as a minor cluster - not totally unexpected, but like with all runs at the moment, not worth betting on after T168 for precise detail. Which is kind of a shame if you like snow because next Friday has an awful lot of it.

March temperature record under threat again - some places not above minus 4 next Thursday.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

11 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Not a good trend for the beginning of March if you want prolonged cold spell. I guess ECM op is on the same page as GEFS. There could be some wild swings in temperatures for Europe next week.

Even if it got milder by that time frame (and I can't see it) I would be happy with my lot as next week looks really quite special if it is cold and snow you like!

I think I would be ready for Spring by then but I have a feeling a cold spell will roll on for 2-3 weeks minimum.  

[Banbury]

16 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Not a good trend for the beginning of March if you want prolonged cold spell. I guess ECM op is on the same page as GEFS. There could be some wild swings in temperatures for Europe next week.

See where the LP goes on D10 it retreats , that’s fine 

[daz_4]

6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

LOL, seriously. The ECM is quite literally the only model showing a warmer solution for Europe into the first week of March in the 00z output. Next week is nailed on frigid by all of the experts and meteorological agencies. Show me some charts that prove your 'mild trend.'

GFS played with this a lot yesterday and GEFS have a clear trend right now (at least for Central Europe). So it is definitely one of the possibilities  

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

GFS played with this a lot yesterday and GEFS have a clear trend right now (at least for Central Europe). So it is definitely one of the possibilities  

A possibility, not a trend. Look at the spread, look at the output in its totality, look at what the experts are saying. You can't just give throw away one liners about a trend to mild and wild temperature fluctuations, it is misleading.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As per comments on yesterday’s ECM.....it had it nailed.  The cold is coming right AT US with disturbances in the flow bringing heavy snow.  This is an extreme event and those that worried of it sinking too far south this and that....the theme has not changed only interruns, but the theme is.......major hit!  And it will be a real ‘spell’....I do not want to read or hear ‘cold snap’ anywhere.  

Ukmo - really bitter with snow

GFS - loads of snow and really cold

ECM - bitter bitter cold with Glacier commencing snow backend

GEM - different but bitter cold and lots and lots of snow

 

Theme- incredible runs

 

BFTP

Edited February 22, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

GFS played with this a lot yesterday and GEFS have a clear trend right now (at least for Central Europe). So it is definitely one of the possibilities  

They only go 'milder' as high res ends though, I agree definitely on the table but highly unlikely, the GFS loves to blow away cold despite the fact we've seen it's not as simple as that countless times.

[daz_4]

5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

A possibility, not a trend. Look at the spread, look at the output in its totality, look at what the experts are saying. You can't just give throw away one liners about a trend to mild and wild temperature fluctuations, it is misleading.

Should have worded it better, sorry for that. Just something to look out for. Of course it is nice that bitter cold is in reliable timeframe and warm weather in FI. Doesn't happen often.

[sparky1972]

phew, i thought i would read this morning that the chilly spell next week had been cancelled after yesterdays model viewing, but i guess we can breath a little easier as it looks like there is still a chance of cold and some snow next week. fingers crossed we will have some stunning output through the day.

[bluearmy]

Couple of annoying things 

eps clusters didn’t update past day 7 last night 

gem and ukmo play around with the mid Atlantic shortwaves this morning to the extent that I need to delay my confidence on next weeks evolution till this evening 

note the progressive looking ec op v similar to the gefs mean at day 8

whilst the depth of this cold pool looks unstoppable, the unstable part could still be deflected away from large parts of the uk so still some nagging doubts. We’re 100% on the v cold - that’s not for question 

[Frosty.]

Turned on the computer and thought, oh no there's only 297 online, must have gone pete tong but what we have is cross model upgrades with a nationwide freeze and enough snow to bring the uk to  standstill!!..this is going to be so much fun.!

[pdiddy]

32 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

GFS played with this a lot yesterday and GEFS have a clear trend right now (at least for Central Europe). So it is definitely one of the possibilities  

That's for Slovakia, right? (49N 17E).

Aberdeen looking ok...

[seb]

Borderline model related (sorry) but very much related to the amount of snow we can expect from showers (our own version of lake effect snow).

If you are worried about snow showers from the East... The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions for convective precip.

Edited February 22, 2018 by seb

[Matty M]

The EC EPS mean 850hPa chart @ 168hrs is something exceptional

 

[winterof79]

41 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

A possibility, not a trend. Look at the spread, look at the output in its totality, look at what the experts are saying. You can't just give throw away one liners about a trend to mild and wild temperature fluctuations, it is misleading.

Yes agreed.The GEFS will try to revert back to default westerly as is always the case.

However they struggle with a cold pool which will be stagnant and not willing to budge trust me.

Edited February 22, 2018 by winterof79

[Captain Shortwave]

Last one from me, as I tried to get myself a new car

      

Still the trend later on the develop that deep Euro trough, like the operational and some hints from the Metoffice that we could see fronts trying to push north from France into week two. The general consensus is that progress is limited but if fronts do reach the south then there is the real possiblity of a major blizzard as the isobars get squeezed between the appraoching low and the surface heights over us and to our north. I must admit I do not expect a circular low to amble up over the UK from the south like the operational but more of an elongated feature with the precipitation struggling against the cold dense air over the UK.

Otherwise, strong support for both the easterly and the transport of some very cold unstable air during the middle part of next week.