Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Oh deary me, I think this ECM could trump all those previous glorious runs here. The beast well and truly freed over the UK with snow spreading west on Tuesday clearing to bitter cold and snow showers on Wednesday. The cold pool might have enough time to becpme deeply entrenched across the UK before the next low drops towards Scandinavia.

-15 upper air fairly widely at day 7

[That ECM]

thatll work!! Hope it's not dry

Edited February 22, 2018 by That ECM

[radiohead]

I'm lost for words....

 

[swfc]

Great runs this morning for all.The ecm at 144 is really impressive

You may not see its like again in march for many a year again !!!

[MattStoke]

UNLEASH THE BEAST

Edited February 22, 2018 by MattStoke

[SteveB]

ECM  is epic and the stuff of dreams.

Everyone gets in on the action, if it turns out like this, we'll be talking about this cold spell for years to come.

 

[Stozzy]

Looks plain sailing this morning for once lol . Looks like we have gone back too the charts of a few days ago . Looking pretty severe 

[That ECM]

Key difference being that as the block heads west heights are maintained to the ne. A strong easterly that goes on for days. Doesn't get much better than the ecm.

Edited February 22, 2018 by That ECM

[chris55]

Every single inch of the UK sub -10 (and some) !!!!

from Shetland to jersey to the far reaches of northern island!!!

i don't think I have ever seen that....ever!!

[Chesil View]

Ukmo and ECM pretty much identical at 144 and well 168 what can I say .

[Snowmaggedon]

Well after a brief wobble it appears the models are firming up on the cold again this morning. With it being so close now if the models firm up later today I think we can be pretty assured that a severe cold spell is on the way. Time to dust off those sledges and stack up on salt folks.

[karlos1983]

What’s refreshing(apart from the wind ) is we are getting closer to landing the cold and the charts just keep giving!!! When does that happen!

will have to put woolies on your teeth if this verified   

Edited February 22, 2018 by karlos1983

[supernova]

Go back to sleep. Nothing to see here....

Oh go on then. Ignore the GEM it's a (weird) disaster. Otherwise, rest easy.

The Beast Cometh. And she is looking pretty fierce this morning. Grrrrrrrr!

Edited February 22, 2018 by supernova

[SizzlingHeat]

My only complaint, whilst fantastic for a relatively short time, that Iberian low has blown up significantly and is close to the south. Similar with gfs and has been hinted recently. We would rather have that low travel west to east than south west to North East because unless it goes east of the UK then it will likely fill over us and bring the milder air in rather quickly. Just a small concern but again all miles into FI

Edited February 22, 2018 by SizzlingHeat

[Wivenswold]

I can remember one famous occasion when ECF joined the party late, December 2010. I agree, this is looking like an event to remember. 

[Chesil View]

Possible channel low at 192 ECM. It's March 1891 all over again. Lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

That low that comes up from the south is a real PITA

Dilutes the uppers considerably but given the deep cold preceding it, I'd suggest precipitation would maintain as snow on ECM

[Ice Day]

What a set of overnight runs!! The UKMO and ECM are absolutely brilliant and if I could draw the perfect charts for a UK wide snow event, these would probably be very close.  At 192 we have a 'snowmaker' working up the Channel, could be insane snow totals off that, although no point getting hung up on those type of details just yet.

The upgrades are happening in the 96-144 time-frame now, and these fall exactly in line with the overnight Met Update which is stunning.  Brilliant start to the day, now time for work. Booooooooo.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

My only complaint, whilst fantastic for a relatively short time, that Iberian low has blown up significantly and is close to the south. Similar with gfs and has been hinted recently. We would rather have that low travel west to east than south west to North East because unless it goes east of the UK then it will likely fill over us and bring the milder air in rather quickly. Just a small concern but again all miles into FI

Snow maker 

[radiohead]

Somewhere is getting buried in several feet of snow on this chart. Incredible.

[pureasthedriven]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That low that comes up from the south is a real PITA

Dilutes the uppers considerably but given the deep cold preceding it, I'd suggest precipitation would maintain as snow on ECM

Yep. That’s a consistent theme, with inter-run variations, now. Brings the dreaded ‘M’ word into play (unbelievably) especially for southern half. 

[MattStoke]

Ignore the uppers increasing with that system. With entrenched surface cold and a flow off the continent, that would be all snow.

Edited February 22, 2018 by MattStoke

[Optimus Prime]

18 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I'm lost for words....

 

That is, by definition, a beast from the east.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

Yep. That’s a consistent theme, with inter-run variations, now. Brings the dreaded ‘M’ word into play (unbelievably) especially for southern half. 

The uppers are misleading, fear not. Such is the extent of the surface cold it's snow for the majority. Deep snow at that. Wow. 

[daz_4]

Not a good trend for the beginning of March if you want prolonged cold spell. I guess ECM op is on the same page as GEFS. There could be some wild swings in temperatures for Europe next week.

Edited February 22, 2018 by daz_4