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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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essexweather Enthusiast

essexweather

Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Excellent output so far this morning. We are starting to see charts that show the 'very cold' locked in which is much like what the Met Office have been saying for the past week or so on 15-30 days forecast. All good signs and confidence increasing this not just a few days but weeks worth of prolonged cold.

Lets see what the ECM has in 90 minutes :D

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

all i can say is lets    hope the BBC wake up  because   the  uk  is facing  snow from monday to at least 336  hr  if that   happen lots  of towns  could be cut  off    in  the  east:cold::cold::shok:

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Surprising how many GFS ensemble members go for an early March breakdown from the SW.

That would be extremely progressive and I expect them to be wrong but interesting to see such fluctuations.

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moorlander Enthusiast

moorlander

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
Posted

Holding the line nicley, sound the alarm. brace, brace,brace 

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted
Just now, moorlander said:

Holding the line nicley, sound the alarm. brace, brace,brace 

lol  nice to see the early weather on bbc mention SNOW but still they don't know were!!!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Bit of a wobble, 5 day cold spell according to silly GFS

graphe3_1000_259_92___.gif

Edited by Mucka
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moorlander Enthusiast

moorlander

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, tinybill said:

lol  nice to see the early weather on bbc mention SNOW but still they don't know were!!!

At T+72 things will start to become a lot clearer i'm sure.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Popular Post
Posted

ICON, GEM & GFS gifs from t72-168. Couldn't do UKMO so have used t144 chart, which is a thing of frigid beauty in itself. Watch the cold pour in like thick treacle :)

tempresult_svf1.gif

tempresult_cxr4.gif

tempresult_zhb9.gif

UW144-21.gif

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Bit of a wobble, 5 day cold spell according to silly GFS

graphe3_1000_259_92___.gif

Poor old Gfs. Old habits die hard.Watch it come crawling back into line later on begging for forgiveness.?

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Bit of a wobble, 5 day cold spell according to silly GFS

graphe3_1000_259_92___.gif

Is this a climatology bias thing ? Always seems to want to go back to type 

Given @Bring Back1962-63 Stellar post last night I can hear him sharpening the blade to carve the GFS up again ! 

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted (edited)

UKMO greatly positioned to bring in exceptional cold for 1st March. Let’s hope this hits bullseye this time. A good chance of uppers below -15 by the looks of it. What a chart!

4678351E-4559-40D1-B3D8-3729F5F137CC.jpeg

That low over Italy is an absolute peach:yahoo:

Edited by Matthew.
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Is this a climatology bias thing ? Always seems to want to go back to type 

Given @Bring Back1962-63 Stellar post last night I can hear him sharpening the blade to carve the GFS up again ! 

Perhaps in part but this is the first time it has gone for such an early breakdown in a big way so the issue is really with how it handles things from the mid term - embedded trough moving West, shape, position and orientation of the high, the retrograde pattern. the polar trough coming South etc.

I would expect it to trend colder again once it has a better handle on more of the moving parts.

All looks great out to 144 on the Ops so not worth getting hung up on, just an observation for now.

Edited by Mucka
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ItIsGee Aficionado

ItIsGee

Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
Posted

Looking excellent this morning!!! Gunna buy a sledge and dig out the thermals!! 

Its been a while since we last saw models this great!! 

 

 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

ECM0-96.GIF?22-12

Just 96 hours away now. Reasonable agreement of the cold arriving Sunday night into Monday morning. A decent trend to really give that cold a good push from the east this morning. It is within reach now I think.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

No drama thankfully, especially around Norway’s coastal shortwave, just absorbed into the pattern as expected. 

Thunderbirds are go!

 

8E85FF3A-E51C-4C94-B398-A959DC00DAC2.jpeg

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
28 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Is this a climatology bias thing ? Always seems to want to go back to type 

Given @Bring Back1962-63 Stellar post last night I can hear him sharpening the blade to carve the GFS up again ! 

That is not a break down most members stay below -5 still colder then average likely to change on next run ..

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM  just as good as UKMO, if not better

ECH1-144.GIF?22-12

Looks cold and snowy too for some 120 through 144. Even better aligned than UKMO for me.

Also worth noting ECM and UKMO have the core of the high a lot further West than GFS

Edited by Mucka
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

We will be talking about this spell for many years !

ec 120

IMG_3360.thumb.PNG.46b4bc34be8c48bdd49eef6a332fd81e.PNG

-10/12 engulfing most of the uk........trough incoming from east.....insane cold pool following. Just unbelivable stuff and the likes we have been waiting for for many many years.

worth the wait.....hell  yea :):):)

Edited by chris55
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

This chart at T144 from ECM. As Nessa would say... 'crackin' 

Screenshot_20180222-063028.png

Screenshot_20180222-062959.png

Better shaped low around the Azores too...GFS balloons it...ECM disrupts it. Perhaps that is where the GFS and its suite is failing

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Oh deary me, I think this ECM could trump all those previous glorious runs here. The beast well and truly freed over the UK with snow spreading west on Tuesday clearing to bitter cold and snow showers on Wednesday. The cold pool might have enough time to becpme deeply entrenched across the UK before the next low drops towards Scandinavia.

850s between -12c and -16c across the UK at day 7 with a deeply cyclonic easterly.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted
38 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Is this a climatology bias thing ? Always seems to want to go back to type 

Given @Bring Back1962-63 Stellar post last night I can hear him sharpening the blade to carve the GFS up again ! 

It's a typical GFS reaction to the high be a little further North.

It's thinking... I know lets bring the milder Atlantic air back in..... what other options are there.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

168 BrrrRRRrrr :cold:

ECM0-168.GIF?22-12

All the models pretty much on the same page except GFS with the high retrogressing cleanly and no chance of the Atlantic getting in from the SW

Edited by Mucka
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