Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[ZK099]

Right, I've had enough. 

Everyone, do you remember when the SSW happened? Yes? And the models were all over the bloody shop? Yes? Well, there's been another warming of the stratosphere. This could, maybe, possibly be why the models are a tad confused. Understand? 

Hahaha maybe slightly condescending but if you wanna act like children you're gonna end up being treated like one ?

[Man With Beard]

So I'm guessing everyone's too scared to say where they think the ECM is going!

After seeing T96, I'm going to wager that it will be further south again. I'm not brilliant at reading the ECM as it comes out though, it does funny progressive things sometimes!!

[bluearmy]

There is a chance that ec op could improve in the short term before the uncertainty of the day 6/8 period 

[Aiden2012]

Ecm looks better to me ? Maybe wrong lol

[Guest]

Just now, Aiden2012 said:

Ecm looks better to me ? Maybe wrong lol

I agree. Cold on cue at t120.

[MattStoke]

ECM looks good to me. So I'm expecting lots of people to throw a tantrum any minute.

[ZK099]

Deleted

Edited February 21, 2018 by ZK099

[SMU]

ECM 120 has a swathe of snow showers up to about Newcastle moving west across the UK

better than UKmet 12z - about the median point -

[chionomaniac]

ECM at 120 is further north than the UKMO at 120 and the cold is in a bit quicker

[Rayth]

Just now, MattStoke said:

ECM looks good to me. So I'm expecting lots of people to throw a tantrum any minute.

Svalbard has looked different to me this run ? 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T120 - the cold pool has landed - looks a bit better for cold through Scandi, might help northern areas later in the run?

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So I'm guessing everyone's too scared to say where they think the ECM is going!

After seeing T96, I'm going to wager that it will be further south again. I'm not brilliant at reading the ECM as it comes out though, it does funny progressive things sometimes!!

Further north I would say

[WalsallWeather123]

ECM vs GFS at T120. Obvious difference in heights. Much better from ECM than GFS. If ECM could be a tad higher than the 0Z at T144 would be even better

[chris55]

Just catching up on today and I know I'm in the middle of the EC 12z chat but GFS 120 and beyond is peachy

high aligned perfectly.

UKMO a little boring, cold yes, but with little action upto 144, though beyond im sure we will hit the sweet spot.

hopefully EC is siding with GFS as I type this.

[tight isobar]

Ecm/ukmo @120.

Still would like a northerly correction.

Although better looking ecm.

[kold weather]

ECM is basically very similar to the 00z run just moved forwards 12hrs at 120hrs. See how it evolves from here. Nervy times even though there is still plenty of scope for both up and down grades...

[chris78]

4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

Right, I've had enough. 

Everyone, do you remember when the SSW happened? Yes? And the models were all over the bloody shop? Yes? Well, there's been another warming of the stratosphere. This could, maybe, possibly be why the models are a tad confused. Understand? 

Hahaha maybe slightly condescending but if you wanna act like children you're gonna end up being treated like one ?

Please dont take this the wrong way, I am not for one minute saying its all gone tits up,  but the second warming doesnt just affect the models, it affects the weather too, what if they effect is to dilute the strength or reduce the longevity of the cold?    Lots of people have made the point you make, but all seem to assume the SSW will make the models wobble and the settle right back on the ultra cold solution, well maybe they wont?

[Derecho]

F5 F5 F5 F5, yessssss...  lol

Much better 

[Johnp]

Beautiful ECM!

Can we all chill out now?

[Stuie]

Great angle of attack from ECM, looking more of a bullseye hit!

[Snowman.]

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly a damn sight better than 00Z, kink too, maybe organised ppn moving in

[weirpig]

Nice 144 on the ecm v cold uppers over Britain 

[SMU]

ECM 144 Is a boom for pretty much all of the UK except the extreme north & west

icelandic shortwave sliding east rather than digging which is what we want...

Edited February 21, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Purga]

ECM looking like a cracker at 144hrs

EDIT: High is better shaped (elongated) and orientation better for continued bitter easterly

Edited February 21, 2018 by Purga