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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

To be fair an Easterly has pretty much most of the time been only beneficial for the South/SE, just like a Northerly is only really beneficial for the North!

In the UK it is difficult to get the whole country in on the act most of the time. 

This is more sensible than my sensible post this morning... 

Lots of biased posts this afternoon and very confusing one liners for newbies further south trying to make sense of it all.. 

Fantastic GFS so far oh and we already have an easterly wind down south 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

The 12z GFS is actually better than the 06z, the cold gets in faster. It certainly isn't worse for cold, and there hasn't been some huge southerly correction. Confused at some of the posts I'm seeing.

gfs-1-132.png

gfs-1-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

Definitely a trend on recent output for the most severe of the weather to be pushed to the south of the UK or over the south of the UK. Compared to where we were a few days ago this certainly makes the game a bit harder for many in terms of a long term memorable spell. Something needs to come in and cut that high off it could be game over for even the south of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not sure why some people in the SE are so smug, the high being further N would benefit them as well. :nonono:

GFS probably the pick of this afternoons output out to 120

gfsnh-0-120.png

I agree (and I'm based in the SE) - if the UKMO went any further South and was accurate, no one would be seeing any snow. A bit further north would give more margin for error so that's what we should hope for - but of course sadly, we can't control it. We possibly need more short waves to form in the flow on the Southern flank (plus a bit of luck) as that might help prop the high further North.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

To be fair an Easterly has pretty much most of the time been only beneficial for the South/SE, just like a Northerly is only really beneficial for the North!

In the UK it is difficult to get the whole country in on the act most of the time. 

Iv'e banged this drum for sometime!!.

#easterly..#southern and #eastern are brunt bearing!!!

Anyway...its gonna be felt countrywide...thats 4 sure.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-21.GIF?21-17

Everyone missing the feature crossing Northern England then at 144 on the UKM.
UW120-7.GIF?21-17

You can see it on the 850s at 120.

 

This feature as shown by the GFS (off Norway) is whats crossing the Northern UK on the UKM


gfs-2-132.png?12

 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

UKMO not as good as the stellar 0z run, but still not a solution to be sniffed at by any means. And it is just one run. 

GFS looking even better than the 6z out to 138h, and the 6z wasn't a bad run itself!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

But it’s going north at t1144 !,

By then the very cold uppers are already cut off, cold yes but we would lose the oppurtunity for this to be a really cold spell so the negativity surrounding the UKMO is fully justified.

The disturbing thing is that this has occurred after 24 hours and its still 96-120h before the main cold pool hits us. The timing of it isn't an issue but the rise in SLP most certainly is and bears a strong resemblence to February 2012. If it shifts further south then yeah it stays mostly dry, equally it could correct north, lets see... at least the GFS is fantastic.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

The high is fine placement wise, thus hasn’t changed, it’s just got a bit too rounded and has pushed the stronger Easterly winds and coldest air further south. Hopefully it won’t go any further south but we have little margin for any further southerly corrections.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Just now, Staffordshire said:

There has been a growing trend to send the lowest uppers further south which started with the ECM and is now becoming evident across the board., with more agreement comes more confidence.

My point was, the modelling has already brought the uppers down south a tad in general, why would that continue to trend FURTHER south?

Assuming that is what you meant?

Unless you meant the trend to keep the uppers as far south as they currently are, in which case, fair point,  I get you.

Anyway, FWIW, I maintain the blocking will end up further north than this trend. The retrogression signal from the SSW may well not be being fully assimilated by the models quite yet. IMO.

Now... how long before a west based -NAO starts cropping up in FI more and more? That's a distinct possibility in the not too distant future.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

By then the very cold uppers are already cut off, cold yes but we would lose the oppurtunity for this to be a really cold spell so the negativity surrounding the UKMO is fully justified.

The disturbing thing is that this has occurred after 24 hours and its still 96-120h before the main cold pool hits us. The timing of it isn't an issue but the rise in SLP most certainly is and bears a strong resemblence to February 2012.

UW120-7.GIF?21-17

Not sure the really cold uppers have been cut off..... are you really sure they have?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Surely such a chart would have as much of a chance of verifying as it does of not doing so? 

In my view it does not. However, you may wish to test my comment by checking how oftensay, in the next 3 months, ppn charts at the same range verify. I have no actual data, but I would suggest about a 20% of it occurring to some degree.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
2 minutes ago, snow freak said:

well to be honest the North and North West have had their share of winter weather so far this winter and don't even mention Scotland.  Time for us southerners to get some winter for a change.

Thats not true unless you live 150m up a hill. PM airstreams don't deliver for the NW as much as you might like to think they do.  GFS not looking too bad in all honesty though we are at the mercy of short waves..

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

By then the very cold uppers are already cut off, cold yes but we would lose the oppurtunity for this to be a really cold spell so the negativity surrounding the UKMO is fully justified.

The disturbing thing is that this has occurred after 24 hours and its still 96-120h before the main cold pool hits us. The timing of it isn't an issue but the rise in SLP most certainly is and bears a strong resemblence to February 2012.

No the cold uppers would be not cut off ,how if the coldest uppers are further South and it moves North how can the uppers be higher:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So when you say the high will continue to drift south in future output you are saying that becasue you can see the future right?

Of course not, I am saying it because it can be determined that the extent to which the high will blow up has been underestimated thus far, and with growing support for it to end up further south, comes more confidence in it doing so.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Back to positives,

GEM and GFS are better runs for snow chances, if you are further North and West especially.

GEM transitions from Easterly to N/NEasterly very nicely.

gemnh-0-240.png?12

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Interestingly though, we all thought an upper Scandi High was certain based on the SSW, however, it looks like the high wants to go directly to Greenland. Perhaps the second warming happening too quickly after the first?

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

The GFS is an excellent run so far for the whole UK. There has been no southward correction from it today. Yes, there has been a southward correction from the UKMO, however it was only 12 hours ago that the UKMO pulled out an epic run. So no need to panic at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
12 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

To be fair an Easterly has pretty much most of the time been only beneficial for the South/SE, just like a Northerly is only really beneficial for the North!

In the UK it is difficult to get the whole country in on the act most of the time. 

That's just wrong! Easterlies are by far the best snowmakers for Eastern Scotland (away from far NE) and NE England.

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

My point was, the modelling has already brought the uppers down south a tad in general, why would that continue to trend FURTHER south?

Assuming that is what you meant?

Unless you meant the trend to keep the uppers as far south as they currently are, in which case, fair point,  I get you.

Anyway, FWIW, I maintain the blocking will end up further north than this trend. The retrogression signal from the SSW may well not be being fully assimilated by the models quite yet. IMO.

Now... how long before a west based -NAO starts cropping up in FI more and more? That's a distinct possibility in the not too distant future.

I could counter that with the question, why would it not? If there is growing support for it to do so, the likelihood of it doing so thus increases.

Don't get me wrong, I would love for it to stay further North, but it shouldn't be ignored that there is growing support for the high to extended towards our Norhtern shores.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

GFS isn't dropping a low down east of Greenland on this run but it also avoids using a split from the polar vortex to slice away the eastern extension to the blocking high which will help greatly in sustaining the E flow of deep cold compared to the relatively disappointing UKMO 12z.

gfsnh-0-144.png?12 UN144-21.GIF?21-17

Shocking how quickly that run and the ECM 00z slice into what are seriously high heights just a day earlier in time. Seems unreasonable but the weather does have a habit of being that way.

Will have to see how the ensembles behave with respect to that 'slicer low' as I will now call it... a back down from ECM would be handy though!

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