Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[weirpig]

Well Icon  not the best  shunts everything further South  That Blessed High just balloons  and forces everything South   

[Southender]

Here we go. ICON & UKMO with a Southerly correction. Don't panic just another variation, hold the toys!....

[95 Degrees]

GFS 12Z bringing the colder uppers in slightly earlier than the previous run. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

UKMO on its own this time, only dry in the north still though.. 

GFS following icon by the looks of it, brutal cold in by Sunday evening.. 

As ever, one run and will look different later 

[Staffordshire]

4 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Still time for everything to be pushed North 

You're right, but there is a definite trend southwards over the past 2/3 runs and you have to expect this trend to continue now.

[Frostbite1980]

Not a great UKMO at all to be brutally honest, any further movement South and it will be a normal cold spell rather than an epic one 

[Derecho]

UKMO at T144 not looking as good it must be said, quite high pressure dominated cutting off the easterly flow of the coldest uppers to the UK...

[danm]

So far, GFS looks slightly better than the 6z with a the cold air arriving sooner. UKMO out to 120 though looks further south though unfortunately.

[Duane S.]

Just now, Staffordshire said:

You're right, but there is a definite trend southwards over the past 2/3 runs and you have to expect this trend to continue now.

Why specifically would you expect it continue?

[The Eagle]

GFS better aligned than 6z, bringing in cold earlier.

[MattStoke]

GFS good so far. A touch quicker than the last run.

UKMO has everything quite far south.

Edited February 21, 2018 by MattStoke

[Johnp]

GEM looks a gem out to 162.

[Mucka]

Not sure why some people in the SE are so smug, the high being further N would benefit them as well. 

GFS probably the pick of this afternoons output out to 120

[frosty ground]

Everyone missing the feature crossing Northern England then at 144 on the UKM.


You can see it on the 850s at 120.

 

[SMU]

So slightly weaker run from UKMO -( great for the SE but not as good further NW )

however best GFS run coming up thus far - also GEM great as well

Edited February 21, 2018 by Steve Murr

[ICE COLD]

GFS 120 

[Weathizard]

GFS has always been the best most reliable model

 

Edit: Very disappointing UKMO 144... going with the earlier ECM. UH OH.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Weathizard

[Staffordshire]

Just now, s4lancia said:

Why specifically would you expect it continue?

There has been a growing trend to send the lowest uppers further south which started with the ECM and is now becoming evident across the board., with more agreement comes more confidence.

[tight isobar]

A definitive southerly shunt via 12z sets..

Ukmo @144..

Gfs..

We get there but have a few conflicting signals here!!!

[Lampostwatcher]

gfs and ukmo fantastic for the South of the UK ☺

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

To be fair an Easterly has pretty much most of the time been only beneficial for the South/SE, just like a Northerly is only really beneficial for the North!

In the UK it is difficult to get the whole country in on the act most of the time. 

Edited February 21, 2018 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Neilsouth]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

gfs and ukmo fantastic for the South of the UK ☺

True but any further south and many of us are screwed! This has happened many times before sadly, with or without a SWW

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Not sure why some people in the SE are so smug, the high being further N would benefit them as well. 

GFS probably the pick of this afternoons output out to 120

Totally agree Mucka, I am in the South and I am not overly happy with this run, having the high further North will suit everyone.

Stronger easterly winds

Tapping into the colder upper air temps

More in the way of heavy convective snow nationally.

[SLEETY]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

True but any further south and many of us are screwed! This has happened many times before sadly, with or without a SWW

But it’s going north at t1144 !,

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Oh dear, plenty of people confusing their 500s and their 850s. The 850s still excellent with -12 uppers for most of England on Tuesday. Same with GFS OP.

GEM slightly slower but the spread of lower uppers a bit wider.

It's back to the trade off - IF the HP is too far north the LP to the south will draw up milder air and your cold spell becomes a cold snap. 

Slightly weaker cold and slightly less snow means greater longevity and chances for severity.