Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ICON has the -8 line hitting the east coast of BI around midnight on Sunday

icon-1-108.png?21-12

less than 24 hours later the proper cold has arrived!! With more waiting in the wings!!

icon-1-129.png?21-12

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

The models have all done well with this, At the timeframes we have been watching until now its been about picking up the trends. To some extent that remains too. The trend we are looking for is placement of the high and orientation to see if we get very cold or extreme cold.

I have not posted since last week because as i said then the models will vary a little on the exact  picture, but it would be the small details. It has always and remained a cold outlook.  The most important updates away from the models we see, are met office. The BBC has Meteogroup who use all models (The Met Office do use all too) and so we can see that they have been calling this much the same as many posters on here.

What the models are showing, in regards to snow, is

South East Coast look to be the first and most at risk to see snow, with a good covering by Monday next week, that risk moves to include east Coast further North by Tuesday. Central- southern England likely to see snow showers as the week progresses and for all dew points and 2m temperatures will allow settled snow at all levels.

East Wales may see flurries and light snow showers as we head towards mid week, As may the Southwest of England

Likelihood of some significant snow is just about anywhere beyond that, no model will be accurate at that timeframe and so we just wait to see how things develop. I would suggest looking at all models that South east and some Southern Counties of England will have enough by then to close some schools quite widely ( It does not take a lot to do that) 

I do think at times people look for too much intimate detail rather than the trends, this trend has been in place since 6th February and my initial forecast has not changed since then. MJO and SSW indicated this pattern perfectly.

The only huge changes i force will be for individual IMBY stuff which may change run to run and then be different on the actual day.

ICON has been surprising consistent but in general the models have all been very consistent with the trend if not the small details. Some people may have never felt cold like this, and night time temperatures on the snow fields may be more similar to last experienced in South in 1990s 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
6 minutes ago, Southender said:

So I saved the ICON 6z & 12z for early Monday morning (T+117 & T+111) to compare the cold air arrival as there is so much discussion on it.

Any delay? :bomb:

iconeu_uk1-16-111-0.png

iconeu_uk1-16-117-0.png

yes there is. i think on the 12z, it arrives nearly 5 minutes later.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

This should help, fascinating reading about how the ICON model works. (Not 'IKON' with a 'k' as I see some refer to it) https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

Many thanks...

While we're at it - it's ARPEGE - it's possibly the most often mis-spelt word in here :) 

Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle - roughly, Research Tool, small scale, large scale. 

Apege, aprege, arpge, aprage... I think mostly there's an 'a' on the front, but...! :)

Sorry - I know mostly we all know what is meant, but since Seasonality had mentioned ICON's spelling, I couldn't resist the chance to mention ARPEGE's spelling :)



 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

That pool of slightly less cold air to the north of Scotland is a bit further south compared to 00z doesn't make any difference to the UK

icon-1-141.thumb.png.fe78fc4d1ab25f6e44f404c34abae4ba.pngicon-1-153.thumb.png.6d3196e998aae602ef6aadaadb526d08.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs losing its bottle a tad.

And throws out some warmer sectors..

To hold the beast out a while longer!!!

 

gfs-1-72.png

Looks on schedule to me TI? Might even be a bit quicker than it's 06z, marginally!

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Another cold but largely insipid ICON out to 144

iconnh-0-144.png?21-12

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO +96

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

UKMO 96 - direct easterly & faster cold

sadly for the extreme North its slightly higher pressure dominated 

0A546BBC-AFC2-4C10-8566-E0BD2A16ADD2.thumb.png.456f4f88a74d5c3a0803f2981932ebb5.png

*** GFS FOLLOWS UKMO - -10c about 6 hours faster - better easterly allignment .. ***

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t150 you can see the slight south shift of the cold air when compared to the 00z run still cold but the coldest uppers head towards mainland europe

icon-1-150.thumb.png.e4517f0c98086c04a7057463aff184ac.pngicon-1-162.thumb.png.410313b30084eebcb1e9596108def18b.png

icon-1-165.thumb.png.9c66a8e51adebb3c31f2977ec9420149.pngicon-1-177.thumb.png.9c3642c1ee9bced0d008bca885d78519.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Another cold but largely insipid ICON out to 144

iconnh-0-144.png?21-12

 

Indeed, we could really do without that high ballooning up so much really... damn SSW:rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO 120 high further South again. 

UN120-21.GIF?21-17

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

UKMO seems to be pushing the coldest air into France to me 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GFS Could end up being the pick of the bunch here! UKMO fair bit south at 120

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsgfsnh-0-102.png?12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96 - direct easterly & faster cold

sadly for the extreme North its slightly higher pressure dominated 

0A546BBC-AFC2-4C10-8566-E0BD2A16ADD2.thumb.png.456f4f88a74d5c3a0803f2981932ebb5.png

What do you mean by extreme north Steve - Watford? Never know with you Southerners.

:D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Can already sense the barrage of sadness ready to start!!!.Anyway looking like ukmo is pulling in a decently easterly and gfs looks ok imo.long way to go with various tweeks on runs so all to play for

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...