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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

It is coming all the way from Russia i believe 

The map and the software/website you used to produce that chart I meant.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
1 minute ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

It is coming all the way from Russia i believe 

From Russia with love :air_kiss: (hopefully)

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Mid afternoon appraisal.

Where are we?

On the cusp of a very cold spell

Where are we going?

Into the freezer.

How long for?

At the very least for 7  days from Feb 26th but chilly before then and likely cold for a good while longer.

How much snow?

Give me the million dollars and I will answer.

But, snow showers should begin around the 27th for the E, becoming heavier and getting further inland over the next few days with potential for one or two periods of more organised snow which may get further West

Thereafter all is dependent on how the retrogression takes shape with either continued E flow with snow showers for the E and possibly more general snow attempting to push in from the SW at times or showers dying off for a time before a NE flow and bands of organised snow showers pushing SE or a slow breakdown.

The amount of snow will be dependent on how far North/South the high is, how strong the flow is, any embedded troughs for first phase, especially for the West. If you are in the East you are pretty much guaranteed lying snow at some point.

 

Yes

But what about the Quasi Polar - Scandanavian Low?

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

Im trying to recall without looking if the last post I made in here was 2010... 
Grover watch tells me its going to be very cold and from all of the charts I have perused in this forum over the last couple of days (without reading much of the attending text) I dont know why some persist with practicing one foot in the grave.. Perhaps best to refer back to John Holmes post on page 23 regarding the latest 500mb anomaly chart from NOAA, and the corrosponding strong indication of Northern blocking.. what else do you need yet ? (please dont answer this)

Looking forward to posting come Tuesday on how long this will last for, when most people will be nowcasting in their regional threads and model output discussion will have some breathing space

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Where is this one from?

NB - I actually thin the post below should be saying Sunday (not Thursday) night  - looks like the visualisation is for T0 26-2-18, but yes a link would be good:)

12 minutes ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

Capture9.thumb.PNG.d81faaf68a793f80f3b7320b14eeef15.PNGThis is the Latest 850hpa Temperatures GFS run at 06Z 114 hours shows the blast knocking on Eastern England and Scotland Thursday night.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bethesda NW Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Convective Weather
  • Location: Bethesda NW Wales
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

The map and the software/website you used to produce that chart I meant.

I use a software called GREarth 

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Posted
  • Location: Bethesda NW Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Tropical and Convective Weather
  • Location: Bethesda NW Wales
1 minute ago, swebby said:

NB - I actually thin the post below should be saying Sunday (not Thursday) night  - looks like the visualisation is for T0 26-2-18, but yes a link would be good:)

 

of course will correct now i will undo this mistake forgot what the day was 

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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

I use a software called GREarth 

Whatever software you use that is a striking and informative chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Whilst I'm really excited about what the models are currently showing, which is a direct hit of Easterly winds sourced in siberia  with snow showers / drifting and severe wind-chill, penetrating frosts etc..there is still uncertainty whether the uk will be hit full on or whether the strongest thrust of severe cold will be diverted further south into france but either way, next week looks like becoming very cold but obviously i'm hoping the uk bears the brunt of it with the high further north!:):cold: 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, TheHumph said:

Whatever software you use that is a striking and informative chart!

Meteociel does 3D charts for the GFS, ARPEGE, and ICON.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php

 

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

as the Icon 12z begins to roll out remember the models are still adjusting to the effects of the 2nd warming and the icon was most consistent with the response to 1st warming. I believe this model is the only 1 with icosahedral grid which may/may not have been reason for it being more consistent during 1st warming. we will see how performs this time over next couple of days runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

12z GFS is terrible at 03hrs. Winter is over.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Coventry
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whilst I'm really excited about what the models are currently showing, which is a direct hit of Easterly winds sourced in siberia  with snow showers / drifting and severe wind-chill, penetrating frosts etc..there is still uncertainty whether the uk will be hit full on or whether the strongest thrust of severe cold will be diverted further south into france but either way, next week looks like becoming very cold but obviously i'm hoping the uk bears the brunt of it with the high further north!:):cold: 

That really is the big picture in a nutshell. Im no longer watching the runs that closely until 72 hr range. Its coming and it will be good either way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ICON steady as she goes!!! Heights have linked! Cold air heading West!

iconnh-0-63.png?21-12

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

So I saved the ICON 6z & 12z for early Monday morning (T+117 & T+111) to compare the cold air arrival as there is so much discussion on it.

Any delay? :bomb:

iconeu_uk1-16-111-0.png

iconeu_uk1-16-117-0.png

Edited by Southender
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
19 minutes ago, snow freak said:

An Easterly usually is from Russia (or Siberia).

Not Siberia, that is used way too loosely.  Siberian originating air to get to us is very rare.  Most Easterlies don’t come further east than The Ural Mountains.  But folk should be forgiven as it is generally used if not exactly accurate.  This thrust though looks unusual....and I don’t think there’ll be much ‘watering’ down as some might fear.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Just a reminder that our cold spell actually starts tonight. Many areas looking at a frost tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
37 minutes ago, pages said:

as the Icon 12z begins to roll out remember the models are still adjusting to the effects of the 2nd warming and the icon was most consistent with the response to 1st warming. I believe this model is the only 1 with icosahedral grid which may/may not have been reason for it being more consistent during 1st warming. we will see how performs this time over next couple of days runs.

This should help, fascinating reading about how the ICON model works. (Not 'IKON' with a 'k' as I see some refer to it) https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

looks like that gfs 06 snowy run was not far off the mark looking at a certain forecast company update:yahoo:

 

will the the gfs run this afternoon get even more extreme regarding snow.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs losing its bottle a tad.

And throws out some warmer sectors..

To hold the beast out a while longer!!!

 

gfs-1-72.png

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