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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

If I had a pound for every time the incredible snowy charts were at 168/192 onwards I would be a very  rich man:D

The delays concern me simply because in my mind that gives more time for things to go wrong, I do think we will get there but the delaying of the 'true easterly' and the high looking a bit saggy at day 5 is my concern right now.

Exactly! We have seen this time and time again but when you say it you become enemy number 1! lol

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

While everyone bickers about 850hpa temps, a colossal blizzard barrels down the spine of the country between T198 and T240:

gfsnh-0-222.png?6

But as all of the posts above explained to me, we are not to focus on snow in the models? 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yes from 192 to 228 its a snow fest. (please note this will change if your new to this)

A bankable run if i have ever seen one!

My bank is getting pretty full now...

Will be bursting by the weekend ?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Try t252 still freezing . Lot of moaning on here . Sort it out , this is stunning 

IMG_1691.PNG

I don't think anyone is moaning per say, it's quite fair to be concerned by the issues early on in the run and the fact that the snowy charts are always just out of reach.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Deep into FI but just looked at the overnight minimums for example -13 over the snow fields of England and Wales

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Just now, nick sussex said:

The high goes further north and the moaning starts , it goes south and the moaning starts ! :cc_confused:

Seriously what’s going on?

The GFS didn’t follow the ECM which is great news.

I think I might come back when some sanity returns to this thread! :cold-emoji:

I agree, visiting this thread in times like these, you certainly get to see who's glass is always half empty & who's is half full.

Great charts, and don't forget what time of year it is, seriously can't be moaning about whats on offer...... can you?

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

IF today's 06 GFS, output were to become near reality, then this country would come into almost standstill.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The high goes further north and the moaning starts , it goes south and the moaning starts ! :cc_confused:

Seriously what’s going on?

The GFS didn’t follow the ECM which is great news.

I think I might come back when some sanity returns to this thread! :cold-emoji:

Whats  going on? I tell ya  the Atlantic comes in at 300hrs  and blows all the cold air away!!  always Jam tomorrow 

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The high goes further north and the moaning starts , it goes south and the moaning starts ! :cc_confused:

Seriously what’s going on?

The GFS didn’t follow the ECM which is great news.

I think I might come back when some sanity returns to this thread! :cold-emoji:

 

That will be June then :D, once it finally warms up. :cold:

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly! We have seen this time and time again but when you say it you become enemy number 1! lol

It's not that you're moaning the wrong thread you know it the mods know everyone knows it. And yet you and other still post moaning posts in this thread.

If your worried about MO then you need to take a step back. :pardon:

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly! We have seen this time and time again but when you say it you become enemy number 1! lol

No one is becoming enemy number 1, but you are posting inaccurate information. The first pulse of cold air is still modelled on the GFS6z to come in on Monday as previously forecast, it is not delayed to Wednesday. What the 6z is showing is a second pulse of very cold air coming in again on Wednesday. So where is the delay to Wednesday?

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
7 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Exactly what I've been saying but it either gets deleted or pushed aside!

Deep cold uppers were due Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday, next Tuesday now Wednesday! In fact I'll add it to my signature :)

we dont need deep uppers as it' cold enough by Sunday afternoon 

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Now i've probably looked at nowhere near as many past cold spells as some of you guys and i do try and remember little trends.

So my question.......Is it not representative of past cold spells to have a theme of cold pulse, trough/disturbance, another pulse of cold, trough/disturbance, pulse of colder air again and so on? 

Obviously as oppose to having a straight easterly going for days on end.

Edited by Chris101
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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

This thread is becoming very IMBY.

Some need to stop chasing the -18c 850's and wanting them to land in their back yard, it is very unlikely to happen.

We have a flow off the continent. We don't need those ridiculously low 850's for snow to fall when we have DP's so incredibly low.

There is absolutely ZERO marginality so relax. IF the PPn comes (which it will) it will be SNOW for all wherever it falls, which is what we are all chasing no?

Edited by Southender
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich
  • Location: Ipswich
13 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The whole of UK will see snow a lot of snow everyone happy with this run..:cold::cold::cold::yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

B042EDA5-D5C4-4533-A5D7-838037F07B42.png

I'm liking the look of that low near the channel, surely that would draw cold air further south if it sinks ? or am I reading this completely wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

This moaning is getting beyond ridiculous! These have been, are and remain the best charts we have seen in years. There is nothing marginal and there will be snow for large parts of the country for at least 3-4 days. There is also the risk of disruptive snow and we will stay below freezing for the period. 

There is some model divergence towards the end of next week which is normal but considering the overall set up it is likely any mild air incursions will be delayed.

We live in the UK, not Canada, the northern US or Eastern Europe.

All models show the most severe cold spell in years so, really, enough with the negativity because of a few wobbles showing temps 3 degrees higher than other runs.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
12 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Sorry Blue, for us novices, can you briefly explain re "step by step movement in a single direction, run by run". Thanks.  

The gfs has a habit of moving slowly to a different scenario over three or four runs. If the ec op is broadly correct days 7/8 then gfs won’t just jump to that solution but edge to it over the course of four or so ops.

 

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