Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[bluearmy]

Eps mean looks good but that op cluster is v visible on the spreads - let’s hope it’s not the largest any longer ! 

[ThamesStreamer]

1 minute ago, Smiler1709 said:

Been abit worried that the models seem to be pushing the real cold back by a day, seems like it's arriving on Monday now. From this mornings runs that seems to be the favoured day compared to recently when Saturday night/Sunday was forecasted. Is this something to worry about or is this the models just getting to grips with exactly where the high pressure will set up? 

We’ve known that Sunday night into Monday morning was the arrival time for a good 4 or 5 days now. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All the models are still showing a great cold spell.  ECM does move the HP NW quite quickly (but I can think of a lot less favourable set ups than a GHP).....well we know it’s heading there so just timing.  UKMO, GEM show incredible cold, GFS goes quick like the ECM but the deep cold remains with troughing over us and would be very snowy in FI....on top of initial snow.  All in all still very very good.....we are in

 

BFTP

Edited February 21, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weathizard]

EC mean does NOT support the OP, can't post charts apologies.

Also keeps almost the entirety of the UK under at least -8 uppers for the entire run from 120 out to 240

[Barry Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Beautiful ecm mean, phew

How does this compare to yesterday's? Does this suggest the op is one of the 'milder' solutions?

[MKN]

So this mornings runs certainly dont want to see the very cold uppers reach us and given the size of change to 12 hours ago it shows how come sunday/monday things could be a long way from what we are all hoping for. Imo it will be friday evening sat morning until we have a firm idea of the beginning of next week.

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

I bet all those who were berating Liam Dutton yesterday are regretting their comments yesterday. Looks like he could be correct. 

Using a freely avilable and notoriously poor snow depth chart shouldnt inspire confidence in the tweet. One should question what info he has access to.

 

Of course the nothing is decided part is spot on.

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean looks good but that op cluster is v visible on the spreads - let’s hope it’s not the largest any longer ! 

Totally agree. We need to see a big swing away today from that worst case scenario cluster if we are to experience a truly historic spell of weather next week. The old saying, if it seems too good to be true then it probably is has been ringing in my ears all week. Let's see if the weather can put that saying to bed next week. 

[shane303]

Those uppers are still conductive of snow even at sea level and temperatures will struggle above freezing 

Edited February 21, 2018 by shane303

[SLEETY]

Ecm was One of the warmest runs out of the entire set,not a surprise 

[northwestsnow]

EC Mean an absolute carbon copy of UKMO @ 144..

That will do nicely thankyou very muchly!!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Using a freely avilable and notoriously poor snow depth chart shouldnt inspire confidence in the tweet. One should question what info he has access to.

 

Of course the nothing is decided part is spot on.

I was referring to his other tweet about the main thrust of the beast from the east being deflected to our south. 

[Chesil View]

ecm to me actually looks snowier for more parts of the UK next week than previous runs.

[Mark Bayley]

ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, MKN said:

So this mornings runs certainly dont want to see the very cold uppers reach us and given the size of change to 12 hours ago it shows how come sunday/monday things could be a long way from what we are all hoping for. Imo it will be friday evening sat morning until we have a firm idea of the beginning of next week.

What charts are you looking then if you don’t think the uppers are not very cold sun into mon then ,unreal comments in here as usual 

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Smiler1709 said:

Been abit worried that the models seem to be pushing the real cold back by a day, seems like it's arriving on Monday now. From this mornings runs that seems to be the favoured day compared to recently when Saturday night/Sunday was forecasted. Is this something to worry about or is this the models just getting to grips with exactly where the high pressure will set up? 

Not this again. It’s been late Sunday/early Monday for days!!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

3 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

How does this compare to yesterday's? Does this suggest the op is one of the 'milder' solutions?

It would suggest the Op is somewhat of an outlier, yes. Here is yesterdays 12z mean chart at 168, and today's side by side. If anything, i prefer the 0z.

[Southender]

Awful mean. Below -10c 850's for at least Sun night to Fri night.  

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Southender

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

Omg it almost makes it as high as minus 5 at day 8. 

[MattStoke]

We are likely to see high pressure retrogress toward Greenland, with the easterly flow changing to a northerly. The models this morning seem to be keen to do this rather quickly. I’d be surprised if we didn’t stay in the easterly flow for longer.

[smith25]

4 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

just for once I wish the op run was from the bottom end of that chart!

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London

Could even call it an outlier beyond 1 March, I actually see white space on the graph there between the op run and the spread.

[sparky71a]

26 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

I'm over near Stokesley and to be fair, the models would have to be showing a great deal further south at this point to put us out of the game. That is a very large cold pool, and we are a very small island in comparison. GFS is always progressive in its solutions right up to T-48hrs on some occasions. We won't miss out, but I would like to see a N.E breeze developing to get those convective showers on the go for us.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm was One of the warmest runs out of the entire set,not a surprise 

By warmest you mean less severe..it was still cold / very cold

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Could even call it an outlier beyond 1 March, I actually see white space on the graph there between the op run and the spread.

Absolutely. A bonafide outlier.