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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

As per usual, ecm offers jam at day 9. It's beyond the joke now. 

Jam tomorrow? Let's see more runs from here but this is not D9!!

IMG_0610.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Why are we looking so far ahead? Some of the south and across the east and infact west have woken up to frost, looks cold now from today with an easterly wind setting up further south, looking past Sunday currently is pointless. 

With such variety in the output this morning it goes to show how useless we are at trying to forcast anything past day 3.

 

The posts arent predicting the weather they are just showing the model output , people are commenting on model variation 

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Just to point out that ICON and GEM are still looking great, and the GEM has been outperforming the GFS lately.

 

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-168 (1).png

gem-0-144.png

gem-0-168 (1).png

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4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

The posts are predicting the weather they are just showing the model output , people are commenting on model variation 

I get that bit, but we shouldn't get to hung up on it, the GFS had a slight wobble yesterday and we went into meltdown. 

The other issue is we are now looking east for our weather as opposed to the west. This is totally different and quite a rare thing now. 

We have also been spoilt by some astonishing charts over the past 3 days and trying to compare anything to them is pretty useless some of the stuff churned out was once in 100 year stuff that has such a low chance of verifying. 

I woukd urge massive caution anything past Sunday at the moment because of how dynamic and also the mechanics in place driving the current weather pattern. 

Also worth noting re any snow fall we need the high RES models to be in touch and we won't know that till T24-36 and even then we get it massively wrong 

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Just to point out that ICON and GEM are still looking great, and the GEM has been outperforming the GFS lately.

 

icon-0-144.png

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And add to this the GEFS by mid next week also look better than the Op, many still have that strong flow dragging in some serious amounts of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Still some variations on a theme by the models this morning, but for sheer entertainment value I pick:

the GEM 850s at +186h:

image.thumb.png.8c31a996c583cf33df2d7ffa88543d72.png.   You won't see this again for a few years....

how about the GFS 500s at +336h....

image.thumb.png.83faa4935f6af4ead5beb4f3ce468126.png   Is the vortex paying us a visit?  Get the tea and biscuits ready....

the ECM still determined to ruin the party:

image.thumb.gif.13c492b77c071f87f5843e11a3a3a795.gif

But here comes the cavalry - the UKMO comes to the rescue....

image.thumb.gif.cc745e7358ba90148c7da1cdccf4f6ee.gif

Still on track for the coldest start to March for many a year!

 

ECM 144 to168 looks wrong the way it moves the Hp cell  almost 180 degrees to the NW just looks wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Ensembles for London marginally less jaw dropping but frankly still pretty incredible. ECM and GFS might have made us pause for thought this morning but hiccups are best cured by a short sharp shock and we’ve definitely got a cold one of those coming :good:

 

 

F548D4CC-4BDE-4E4A-B3A6-AEB111455500.thumb.png.21b27b33bb7a88671ad1132d895dda73.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

I’m struck by how many people on here are clairvoyant , their powers seem to increase after the T144 hour mark ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I’m struck by how many people on here are clairvoyant , their powers seem to increase after the T144 hour mark ! 

Oh yes, with the amount of people here who can make guaranteed forecasts beyond the reliable its a wonder there is any uncertainty in predicting the weather at all. Every major meteorological agency across the world should just post here whenever they have jobs going.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It was there if you wanted to see it jimmy - the ec op is a more extreme version but it’s out of the far less convective  snowy cluster. This op gives us around 36 hours of convective potential but heights are higher as is slp so it’s simply not good enough for widespread snowcover if you compare with the previous runs. Working on the basis that we have seen two good ec ops followed by one meh run, we’ll be back in the game come tonight on this model. However, the ukmo day 6 is headed in a similar direction (though the upper ridge slightly better aligned). More runs needed and ed’s salt deposit losing some of its value! 

all based on ec output I should add !

54B9635C-85F6-4AB9-9B04-EF46B35C7E0C.thumb.jpeg.4ab1ac06f51399404c1c9a237fac1cea.jpeg

as for the ecm following the gfs @frosty ground...... really? you  think they are alike?

 

Double take at this bit Blue. The big three all banging the drum for an inflated high in the transition to retrogression would be a concern. Is that a fair interpretation?

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
9 minutes ago, supernova said:

Ensembles for London marginally less jaw dropping but frankly still pretty incredible. ECM and GFS might have made us pause for thought this morning but hiccups are best cured by a short sharp shock and we’ve definitely got a cold one of those coming :good:

 

 

F548D4CC-4BDE-4E4A-B3A6-AEB111455500.thumb.png.21b27b33bb7a88671ad1132d895dda73.png

 

Really?

The majority below -10c for 5/6 days

Edited by snowblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
30 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I get that bit, but we shouldn't get to hung up on it, the GFS had a slight wobble yesterday and we went into meltdown. 

The other issue is we are now looking east for our weather as opposed to the west. This is totally different and quite a rare thing now. 

We have also been spoilt by some astonishing charts over the past 3 days and trying to compare anything to them is pretty useless some of the stuff churned out was once in 100 year stuff that has such a low chance of verifying. 

I woukd urge massive caution anything past Sunday at the moment because of how dynamic and also the mechanics in place driving the current weather pattern. 

Also worth noting re any snow fall we need the high RES models to be in touch and we won't know that till T24-36 and even then we get it massively wrong 

Oh indeed. A balanced reasonable post to read thank you thank you thank u u 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

Really?

The majority below -10c for 5/6 days

Not sure I understand. Was saying how incredible they were, if only fractionally less spectacular than yesterday?

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Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
3 minutes ago, supernova said:

Not sure I understand. Was saying how incredible they were, if only fractionally less spectacular than yesterday?

Well, I think there was much more scatter after 2/3 March in yesterdays, todays look generally lower and more tightly grouped - improvement!

Edited by snowblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

6 minutes ago, supernova said:

Double take at this bit Blue. The big three all banging the drum for an inflated high in the transition to retrogression would be a concern. Is that a fair interpretation?

The issue here is the likely retrogression from Scandi to greeny ridge and how the behaviour the moving vortex the interacts with this

the easterly now pretty much agreed to arrive by Monday morning by how long for and what depth of cold/convection ???

the ecm clusters yesterday grew the route of retrogression closer to the Monday 00z op run which depressed the mood in here for a couple hours. With the op repeating it today, you would expect the mean to begin responding to this route. That largest cluster from yesterday had the upper ridge much too close to w Scotland to allow the type of continental flow we seek. 

New eps dribbling out now 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Feels bitter already lol,at least models agree the sub zero air arriving Monday after that it’s still open to lots of uncertainty,i very much doubt the ECM Op has a handle on things later on,it’s been junk most the winter

Was it not showing UK in mild SW winds when the other models were showing the start of the Easterly trend in their later output a week or so back I seem to recall:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

I bet all those who were berating Liam Dutton yesterday are regretting their comments yesterday. Looks like he could be correct. 

We were not berating him, simply concern raised at his use of an unreliable snow graphic to show his point on the 12z ECM. His overall point however of suggesting people to calm a little in regards to snow is valid, shown by a slight wobble from GFS & ECM this morning. I do believe,  however, that the models are struggling somewhat with the regression signal & how it interacts with the western advection of the cold air. ECM now has heights to high which somewhat cuts of the feed, a pattern it keeps intermittently attempting. Hence, 144hr + to be viewed with even more caution than normal until ECM ensembles start to settle a little. 

Bluearmy suggesting the same above. 

Edited by MattTarrant
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
9 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

You  related?? :friends:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Been abit worried that the models seem to be pushing the real cold back by a day, seems like it's arriving on Monday now. From this mornings runs that seems to be the favoured day compared to recently when Saturday night/Sunday was forecasted. Is this something to worry about or is this the models just getting to grips with exactly where the high pressure will set up? 

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