Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[MattStoke]

Just now, Snowy L said:

A lot of people, me included, dont care for temperatures of -10c if its going to be bone dry? Not taking any one individual run too seriously though, just pointing out why some would, justifiably imo, be concerned by the 12z were it to become a trend.

It's far from bone dry. Not that there is any point in even looking at snow detail this far out. Models are rubbish with shower distribution even at short range.

[Dbarb]

How long till the pub run?

[Frostbite1980]

Just now, Dbarb said:

How long till the pub run?

Starts at 9.30 

[Day 10]

By the end of all this let's just hope shortwaves become little snowmakers from the East and are re-named snowwaves.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Day 10

[ScottishSnowStorm]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The concentration of runs with -10C uppers suggests a transfer of the coldest weather to the north as we go into March

The coldest weather will inevitably transfer to the north though as the block moves into greenland 

[Deep Snow please]

ECM is up and running Looking okay in the early stages:

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

How long till the pub run?

Hold your horses, ECM 12z first!

[Stuie]

I don`t know which is better, these incredible uppers or the fact that the words `marginal` , `above 150m` and `the northern hills` will NOT be mentioned...

 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Stuie W

[Tamara]

I think too many have already become desensitised to what constitutes a 'fantastic chart' and the seasonal ailment of this thread (which is irrationally mood driven anyway by the more average synoptic charts that are customarily on offer) has taken on a latest variant of becoming superimposed and twisted on the absurd semantic that 'merely' only UK Tundra conditions are being shown and not the Canadian variety.

Truly, if you cannot exercise self control in front of your lap-top by the smorgasbord of dessicating cold solutions evident on NWP, especially as we are heading right into meteorological Spring, then its maybe best that a different form of self torture is considered to spare those who take a more considered perspective.

This has nothing to do with any regional bias (coming from a part of the country that relies on these increasingly rare sort of synoptic to get a snow fix) its to do with the usual fascination I have for sitting back and marvelling at watching a pattern like this unfold in the greater macro scale.

If/when it snows at home, I will be less inclined to spend spare time waiting for when it is next going to snow, or when its going to end - but instead getting out, having fresh air, exercise and enjoying it.

And then, when the snow and ice is over, it will be a case of seeing how the patterns evolve through Spring and into Summer - looking for the best that can be on offer for this Island, whose micro climate is fickle, elusive and overly too mobile to the sort of sustained blocked patterns that can be the deeply cold derivative as upcoming next week, or depictive of deep Azure blue skies, sunshine and warmth of the summer.  

Get used to this reality - it will always be thus

[Deep Snow please]

Snow showers by Friday afternoon on the east coast.

[danm]

My take on the GFS op run-

Should we take note of its output and look to see if it’s replicated in future runs? Absolutely.

Should we panic? Absolutely not. 

We have been spoiled with consecutive runs from all models showing a potentially historic cold/snowy spell, so a slightly different evolution was bound to show up. The 12z ensembles still look excellent. 

Even though I’m from London, I do understand the jitters from those up north. The high pressure developing too strongly and too far south could reduce the snow potential. However, it’s one run and currently we’re still on track for a notable cold spell. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by danm

[radiohead]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Nope - Same starting data, same resolution. 

The control is run with the same lower resolution as the rest of the GEFS members, which is a lower resolution than the GFS.

If the control had the same starting data and same resolution then there wouldn't be any difference between the control and the operational. The reason why they deviate is because of the resolution difference between them.

[SizzlingHeat]

Looking great at T92 on ECM. High aligning lovely. No shortwaves. Better orientation than 6z. Cold should come in quicker here. Looking fantastic!

[Decemberof2010]

ECM looking more like UKMO than GFS at 96h. Forgive me if I'm wrong here I'm still learning lol

[Snowy L]

Center of the High at t96 is a good deal further North than on the GFS at the same time point.

UKMO and ECM: center of the high is east of Svalbard

GFS: center of the high is over North Scandinavia.

 

 

[Derecho]

Pretty pleased with the ECM so far, the Finnish low can be ruled out haha.

Looks quite tidy and the SLP over Scandi is a bit lower too, more beneficial for northern areas later?

[ICE COLD]

ECM 120 

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

ECM looking more like UKMO than GFS at 96h. Forgive me if I'm wrong here I'm still learning lol

I'd say you're bang on.

[Snowy L]

Wow t120 really highlights the difference in high pressure placement between ECM/UKMO and GFS even further. That is a massive difference at only 96-120hours.

[SMU]

The UKMO had the -24c isotherm making a quick beeline SE towards the UK for 168 in the form of an open wave -

Also UKMO 144 - you would expect the Scandi high to seesaw a little into 168 - the west 'end' lifting somewhat & the eastern end 'dropping' by the same degree-

The reverse happens over Europe where the net effect forces cold west wards - That cold pool is travelling at such a pace ( driven by the high ) that if the flow remains clean ahead of the wave - The trajectory would bring it in towards the UK, slightly moderated -18/-20c-

Let see how close it gets on the ECM & JMA....

S

Edited February 20, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SizzlingHeat]

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

[parrotingfantasist]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

I don't see any short wave over Finland though you probs see it (I have little experience)

Edited February 20, 2018 by parrotingfantasist

[Snowy L]

Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

That little feature is present in the ECM, UKMO and GFS. Stop scaring us lol.

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Not sure what to make of 120. Seems a shortwave has formed over Finland. Probs delay the proper cold again. Lets see how it progresses

The one next to Norway? Nah that one is fine as the Scandi high and Svalbard high have already linked up

Edited February 20, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[ICE COLD]

The beast is in at 144 ecm . Good agreement on that now. ?