Cyclone Gita

[forecaster]

Cyclone Gita last week moved directly over Tonga's main island, incredibly causing no fatalities. 

 

It's still classified as a TC at 33S, though will transition soon. 

It crosses New Zealand on Tuesday, bringing extreme weather. 

As is often the case with these former cyclones, it brings up cold air the time of year.

Below is some GFS guidance showing the incredible 850hPa temperature contrasts: 23C in the warm core of Gita, and 0C just 500 miles south. A 23C 850hPa temperature gradient from the north to the south of the South Island!

 

 

 

 

[noonoo418]

It caused  a fair amount of damage in Samoa (flooding primarily) and American Samoa as well I believe. It is indeed a blessing no-one was killed. Let's hope the remnants don't cause you guys too many issues.  

[forecaster]

On 2/20/2018 at 04:52, noonoo418 said:

It caused  a fair amount of damage in Samoa (flooding primarily) and American Samoa as well I believe. It is indeed a blessing no-one was killed. Let's hope the remnants don't cause you guys too many issues.  

 

There is a live thread here: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101542667/live-cyclone-gita-nears-new-zealand

 

Some locations in the upper South Island received 50mm of rain in an hour yesterday. 

In just 18 hours, Kaikoura recorded one third of it's typical annual rainfall! 

Westport had easterly gales, gusting 60 knots. Westport is a pretty wild, windy place but is not accustomed to easterly gales - they tend to be very damaging.

There's also lots of snow to 1000m or less in the lower South Island.

Edited February 20, 2018 by forecaster

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the first forecast for the 2018 season is out.

Colorado state Uni is going for 14 storms,7 hurricanes and 3 majors.

I think we'll see more majors that this due to the 'new' way we see them rapidly spin up?

5 majors and 8 hurricanes is more like it for me?

With a neutral ENSO and low solar I think we'll see a long season.