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March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put tha

-3.5 to the 1st 8.1 below the 61 to 90 average 8.5 below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________

My impression is that a large part of the reset from provisional to final CET is to remove values for max and (more often) min that are outside the boundaries of the 24-hour calendar day and to introd

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Models now showing much of the CET zone will be out of any notable cold air for the rest of the month, meaning a finish in the high 4's most likely than low 4's. Chance might even fail to make it to the 4's but I suspect with downward corrections, a finish of 4.8 or 4.9 degrees end result. Not as cold as 1996, but on a par with 2006. Scotland looks like it will end up with a significantly below average March, rest of the month will be cold here.

Here it has certainly felt the coldest since 2013, we had a burst of warmth today when the sun was out, but when it went it, still feeling notably chilly, and the rest of the month will be very chilly here.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.6C to the 26th... -1.8    (6.1: -1.1)
4.8C to the 27th... -1.7    (8.4: +1.3)
4.8C to the 28th... -1.7    (5.2: -2.0)
4.8C to the 29th... -1.7    (4.3: -2.9)
4.8C to the 30th... -1.7    (5.4: -2.2)
4.8C to the 31st... -1.8    (4.9: -3.1)

The data hasn't updated for yesterday or this morning's min, so these maybe slightly more off than usual. However, a cool end to the month is near certain now, but nothing exceptional. Most likely finishing range is 4.5C to 5.2C before corrections, and so 4.1C to 5.3C after corrections.

jNE5v9J.jpg 

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Sunny Sheffield up to 3.3C -2.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. Much confusion with the coming Easter weather. Met office don't seem sure what it's going to do while the Beeb indicate a milder end to the weekend. UKMO indicates a similar temperatures as today once Wednesday is out of the way. At the present time it looks like we will end up between 3.8C to 4.2C in sunny Sheffield. So it will still be a significant could month for us and very wet. which is strange for a cold month.

Nationally using the 0.8C general difference between sunny Sheffield at the CET zone as rough guide that puts the CET between 4.6C to 5C.

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4.7 to the 26th

0.8 below the 61 to 90 average

1.7 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th

 

*Yesterday was to the 25th not 24th as I wrongly said*

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Sunny Sheffield up to 3.5C -2.4C below average. Rainfall 95.8mm  150.4% of average. Models still all over the place so as to how far it rises before the months end is uncertain.

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4.8 to the 27th

0.7 below the 61 to 90 average

1.6 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th & 27th

Edited by Summer Sun
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With the low pressure further south than originally thought has allowed today's temperatures to be higher than thought yesterday. This may allow another rise for today rather than a drop but we shall see.

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.6C -2.3C below normal. Rainfall 97.2mm 152.6% of average.

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A climb to 4.9 degrees most likely tomorrow, but then a stall possibly might just go up to 5 degrees, but with downward corrections could be looking at a final finish of 4.7 or 4.8 degrees. A cold March, running up a run of colder than average months now.. feeling  a bit like late 2012-2013 period.

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27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A climb to 4.9 degrees most likely tomorrow, but then a stall possibly might just go up to 5 degrees, but with downward corrections could be looking at a final finish of 4.7 or 4.8 degrees. A cold March, running up a run of colder than average months now.. feeling  a bit like late 2012-2013 period.

Looks like my guess of 5.0C for March was slightly high but pretty close!  Great to see another colder than average month.

Edited by Don
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I think its all going top be about frosts, if the temp gets down to 0c or minus then we will end up around the 4.8/4.9c, if night time temps stay generally in positive territory then 5c looks likely. As for adjustments, is it likely to adjust down then, 4.4c would be a big adjustment down?:cc_confused:

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Sunny Sheffield still at 3.7C -2.4C below normal. Rainfall 112.7mm 176.9% of average. 4th wettest march on Record for us. Unlikely to beat 140mm set in 1981 but 1969 with 119.9mm is within reach looking at the forecast.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 3.8C -2.4C below normal so will finish either on 3.8C or 3.7C depending on today's high anything above 4.7C with leave it as it is. Unless the sun comes out which is unlikely so won't go higher than 3.8C. Rainfall 135.6mm 212.9%  of average 2nd wettest March on record but won't beat the 149mm recorded in March 1981

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