Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Recommended Posts

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.1C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 88.7mm 139.2%. Rainfall actually a bit low due to snow blowing out of the rain gauge in main beast from the east.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 275
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put tha

-3.5 to the 1st 8.1 below the 61 to 90 average 8.5 below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________

My impression is that a large part of the reset from provisional to final CET is to remove values for max and (more often) min that are outside the boundaries of the 24-hour calendar day and to introd

Posted Images

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4.6 to the 17th

0.6 below the 61 to 90 average

1.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th

4.3 to the 18th on the estimated tabled list. Yesterday had a sub zero CET mean provisionally.

Edited by Weather-history
,
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

4.3 to the 19th

1.1 below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th

 Correction 4.2C to the 19th

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

4.3 to the 19th

1.1 below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th

 

4.2 to the 19th

1.1 below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.8 to the 16th

Note to self *Must check before pressing submit reply*

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.7C -2.8C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. This could well be the 2nd low point of the month.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Expect a slow climb over the coming days and then probably a bottoming out, even a dip should conditions come off as currently suggested by the models at the end of the month. A finish below 5 degrees is a good bet, below 4.5 degrees possible, but I suspect somewhere between 4.5 and 5 degrees, there could be downward corrections bringing us below 4.5 degrees. A cold March, but some way off 2013. It has so far felt like 2001, which brought a very cold northerly blast early on, mid month was plagued by easterlies, and it never really got warm all month. Its been a very dull month here so far.. very much like 1996.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.2C to the 22nd... -2.0    (6.4: -0.5)
4.4C to the 23rd... -1.9    (7.1: +0.2)
4.5C to the 24th... -1.9    (6.8: -0.6)
4.5C to the 25th... -1.9    (5.7: -1.6)
4.6C to the 26th... -1.8    (6.1: -1.1)
4.7C to the 27th... -1.8    (7.1: +0.0)
4.7C to the 28th... -1.8    (4.9: -2.3)
4.6C to the 29th... -1.8    (4.0: -3.2)
4.7C to the 30th... -1.9    (4.8: -2.8)
4.7C to the 31st... -1.9    (4.9: -3.1)

A chilly end to the month according to the 12z GFS, but much milder than the finish the 06z had (4.3C to the 31st), which shows how volatile things could be during the final few days. At this stage, I'd say a finish of between 4.0C and 5.2C before corrections and 3.6C to 5.3C after. Best guesses in the low to mid 4s IMO.

JcvsuFR.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield still at 2.7C -2.9C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. GFS beginning to have second thoughts about a potent 3rd cold spell after being very determined earlier in the week. So could still end up significantly cold month for us or just a plain cold month. Either way it's going to be a very wet month whatever happens.

Edited by The PIT
Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems to have been a cold month, yet it's going to get nowhere near the sub 3.0C finish that some were insisting could happen. I said all along that the mild spell we had mid-month would scupper any hopes of this. To get a major fall in the CET in the second half of March is very difficult.

It shows how exceptional 2013 was- the depth of cold wasn't always as extreme as we've seen at times this month, but it was the fact that it was sustained for virtually the whole month.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It seems to have been a cold month, yet it's going to get nowhere near the sub 3.0C finish that some were insisting could happen. I said all along that the mild spell we had mid-month would scupper any hopes of this. To get a major fall in the CET in the second half of March is very difficult.

It shows how exceptional 2013 was- the depth of cold wasn't always as extreme as we've seen at times this month, but it was the fact that it was sustained for virtually the whole month.

All of the above is true but I still think that March 2018 is a better 'winter' month than March 2018 whatever happens between now and the 31st. Of course this is dependent on what area of the country you live in. In central southern England we have had several days with non-marginal snow, relatively long-lasting snow cover and deep drifts. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.8C -2.9C below normal. Rainfall 89.5mm 140.5% of average. GFS and UKMO saying no to a new cold spell out to t144 and the ECM also backing away from the idea looks like a steady rise on the cards. Even with the temps shown on the GFS it looks like we will come over a degree below average which isn't bad these days.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Scorcher said:

.

It shows how exceptional 2013 was- the depth of cold wasn't always as extreme as we've seen at times this month, but it was the fact that it was sustained for virtually the whole month.

The first few days of March 2013 wasn't actually that cold, infact by the 9th,  it was 4.9C for the CET. 

That's what makes that month really remarkable to go from 4.9C to 2.7C in a month that climatically on average gets milder as the month progresses. 

The first 9 days averaged 4.9C, the last 9 days averaged 0.9C

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...