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March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put tha

-3.5 to the 1st 8.1 below the 61 to 90 average 8.5 below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________

My impression is that a large part of the reset from provisional to final CET is to remove values for max and (more often) min that are outside the boundaries of the 24-hour calendar day and to introd

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I posted a table of the most similar winters to this past one in the February thread.

1905-06 is a very similar winter for the three CET values, a total (absolute) difference of only 0.3 among the three months.

The winter tied with five others in the rankings 129 to 134 warmest out of 359. This is cool by recent standards. 

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With some cold showing up again on the models, it's interesting to note that in 1785, the year we just tangled with on 28 Feb and 1 Mar (similar record low values and the one for 1 March still pending as provisionally we tied), there was another subzero spell that year on 28-29 March (-0.3 and -0.7). These were also daily records.

The latest sub-zero CET value was -0.2 on 19 April 1772 but that one appears to be a real outlier, besides that the latest would be 3 April 1799 (-0.5) and since then the latest was 2 April 1917 (-0.5). Another very late (non-record as 1799 was lower) value was -0.5 on 31 March 1859.

Since 1981 the latest sub-zero CET value was -0.5 on 20 March 1985, although 2013 had 0.0 on 23 March. 

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

2.6 to the 9th

2.3 below the 61 to 90 average

3.0 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 2.6 to the 9th

 

 

I think I may have gone too high with 3.8C! Certainly think this upwards trajectory will stall come end of next week and we’ll see it going down. I’d say final CET of 2-3C looks good quite possibly coldest month colder than December, January I think that’s likelt and even February possible.

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I think I may have gone too high with 3.8C! Certainly think this upwards trajectory will stall come end of next week and we’ll see it going down. I’d say final CET of 2-3C looks good quite possibly coldest month colder than December, January I think that’s likelt and even February possible.

How inaccurate is my entry of 4.8C likely to prove then, LOL!?:oops::rofl:

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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I think I may have gone too high with 3.8C! Certainly think this upwards trajectory will stall come end of next week and we’ll see it going down. I’d say final CET of 2-3C looks good quite possibly coldest month colder than December, January I think that’s likelt and even February possible.

That's certainly not set in stone yet, going to take something exceptional to drop in the 2nd half of the month from already quite a low value. I think the models may be underestimating just how mild next week is going to be, however.

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3.1 to the 10th

1.8 below the 61 to 90 average

2.6 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 3.1 to the 10th

Edited by Summer Sun
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On ‎11‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 11:59, Weather-history said:

Beginning to wonder how wet this March might turn out, already up to 40mm to the 9th

WH...

 Just realised that I won the CET last month and also that my guess on  the rainfall - being equal second - to within 0.01mms out! (2.9C and 49.0mms)

 Its a pity I didn't do the lottery last month as I had to make a guess miles  in advance!!

Anyway -  am now watching this month closely  as I went with quite a low CET (4.0C) and in a low pressure dominated month (guess)  went with a rainfall figure of 112,5mms.. 

Could it be......... ?    Not a chance.......

My guess for the CET will be miles too high.  :fool:      I should have gone for 2.9c again.

:nonono::D

 MIA

 

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On 11/03/2018 at 00:08, Scorcher said:

That's certainly not set in stone yet, going to take something exceptional to drop in the 2nd half of the month from already quite a low value. I think the models may be underestimating just how mild next week is going to be, however.

Don’t agree of course we are never go to see what we had in the infancy of March it’s been rising daily since it will come down for sure by weekend, looking at model output sub 3C CET is my bet.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 2.2C. Rainfall at 50.8mm 79.7% of average and should be above by tomorrow. Another smaller rise tomorrow due to today being a good 4C colder than forecast. Tuesday to Saturday should still have a rise unless it's cooler again than forecast. So looking at 2.8C to 3C by this Saturday for us then a good plunge back down again. Again it looks  a very short affair at this moment in time.

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On 3/11/2018 at 00:08, Scorcher said:

That's certainly not set in stone yet, going to take something exceptional to drop in the 2nd half of the month from already quite a low value. I think the models may be underestimating just how mild next week is going to be, however.

Eye they have Max today about 5.2C Oops.....

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.8C to the 12th... -2.0    (7.1: +1.1)
4.0C to the 13th... -1.9    (6.4: +0.1)
4.2C to the 14th... -1.7    (7.6: +1.0)
4.6C to the 15th... -1.4    (8.8: +1.8)
4.8C to the 16th... -1.3    (8.1: +1.2)
4.9C to the 17th... -1.3    (6.5: -1.0)
4.6C to the 18th... -1.6    (-0.4: -7.5) [Record low is -1.3C from 1853]
4.4C to the 19th... -1.9    (0.2: -6.4)
4.3C to the 20th... -1.9    (3.2: -3.4)
4.2C to the 21st... -2.0    (2.8: -3.8)

The child of the beast from the east threatening to pay us a visit and send the CET tumbling. Plenty of uncertainty still though, so I still wouldn't rule out reaching the 81-10 average just yet, though that is nearing the upper limit of what's likely at this point.

 

JwEEbln.jpg

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8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t agree of course we are never go to see what we had in the infancy of March it’s been rising daily since it will come down for sure by weekend, looking at model output sub 3C CET is my bet.

Look at the projected values from the GFS 12Z that have just been posted, sub 3C is very unlikely.

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

To get under 3C we'd need the depth of cold to continue to the end of the month- just not going to happen.

I agree with you that it probably won't, but it's far too early to say that it definitely won't.

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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Unlikely to happen.............again.

5 years ago that above scenario did happen. 

Yes but looking at the model output I just can't see how it's sustainable this time. We need really exceptional 850 hPa temps at this time of year to deliver the sort of spell that would get us under 3C.

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