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March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put tha

-3.5 to the 1st 8.1 below the 61 to 90 average 8.5 below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________

My impression is that a large part of the reset from provisional to final CET is to remove values for max and (more often) min that are outside the boundaries of the 24-hour calendar day and to introd

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Not expecting a rise today, and no doubt with a downward correction a finish of 4.7 degrees looks most likely. A cold March. Many a milder January in recent years.

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  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    It shares the same mean CET for March then as 2006, 1986, 1971, 1925, 1877, 1858, 1838, 1810 and 1757.

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    I suspect the 4.9C figure is not the final figure. The mean using the provisional values is 4.9C, and that's now been removed from the monthly rankings. Possibly posted by accident.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    4 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    I suspect the 4.9C figure is not the final figure. The mean using the provisional values is 4.9C, and that's now been removed from the monthly rankings. Possibly posted by accident.

    Its down as 4.93 in the official daily figures

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Its down as 4.93 in the official daily figures

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

    The data aren't there when I click the link.

    Edit: Min. and max. data seem to be there. If they're correct then the daily record for the 1st looks to have been broken (-3.8C, previous record was -3.5C in 1785). The March maximum record looks to have been smashed as well (-1.2C, previous record was -0.7C on 6th March 1942).

    Edited by Relativistic
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    Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading

    This is what I see when I load the page - only 2 months of data so far. Looks like the March figures haven't reached Reading yet :)

    [Edit - just updated after some determined page refreshing!]

    cet0318.png

    Edited by Stargazer
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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    About 3 hours ago there was a March figure of 4.9c, but they have taken this down it would seem. So someone at the Met office is working on Easters day then?!:)

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, Stargazer said:

    This is what I see when I load the page - only 2 months of data so far. Looks like the March figures haven't reached Reading yet :)

    [Edit - just updated after some determined page refreshing!]

    cet0318.png

    How very strange, the data have disappeared again!

    57 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    18th March: -1.1C 

    I think that's the coldest CET daily mean for the second half of March since 1899.

    Yes, very cold; -1.1C puts it in second place for that particular date (18th March 1853 was -1.3C). 

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  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    My apologies for seeming a little dim :oops: but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart :)

    cet0318.png.0c678217788d6521d8fd0a9068cd

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    My apologies for seeming a little dim :oops: but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart :)

    cet0318.png.0c678217788d6521d8fd0a9068cd

    Yes I'd like to know that too!:rofl:

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  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    I can see it in the overall ranks https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt :good:

    rank    jan        feb        mar 
    136   2.9 1885   3.5 1677   4.9 1877   
    137   2.9 1919   3.5 1680   4.9 1925   
    138   2.9 1954   3.5 1685   4.9 1971   
    139   2.9 1966   3.5 1710   4.9 1986   
    140   3.0 1659   3.5 1810   4.9 2006  
    
    rank    jan        feb        mar        
    141   3.0 1670   3.5 1836   4.9 2018  
    142   3.0 1675   3.5 1941   5.0 1663   
    143   3.0 1677   3.6 1742   5.0 1664  
    144   3.0 1693   3.6 1749   5.0 1665   
    145   3.0 1712   3.6 1753   5.0 1668   
    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
    34 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    My apologies for seeming a little dim :oops: but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart :)

    cet0318.png.0c678217788d6521d8fd0a9068cd

    Thats only got Jan and Feb hasn't it?  5.26 and 2.93 respectively.

    Edited by Norrance
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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    36 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    My apologies for seeming a little dim :oops: but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart :)

    cet0318.png.0c678217788d6521d8fd0a9068cd

    Ignore what I said previously. Probably just best to wait for the official data, which seem to be appearing and disappearing at random at the minute!

    On another note, I still can't see the 4.9C figure in the monthly rankings?

    Edited by Relativistic
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  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    6 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    If you take the mean of the minimum and maximum for each date, and then then take the mean of all of those values, then presumably it comes to 4.93C.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_2018

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_max_2018

     

    On another note, I still can't see the 4.9C figure in the monthly rankings?

    Yes and thanks....Max & Min to find the mean......but max and min charts are identical....I think ill leave it :)

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Yes and thanks....Max & Min to find the mean......but max and min charts are identical....I think ill leave it :)

    Apologies, this link should work for the minima.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_2018

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield finished on 3.7C -2.6C below average. Average max 6.9C -3.0C below normal. Average min 0.5C -2.3C below average. Rainfall 138.3mm 217.1% of average Strange to have such a cold month a wet month as well. 2nd wettest for us on record since 1955

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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Finished 4.4c here, 1.4c below the 1981-2010 average. 72mm of rainfall.

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  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    On 17/03/2018 at 09:46, BornFromTheVoid said:

    After a quick look, the top 3 largest drops for the CET from one day to the next in March are:

    8.5C from the 28th in 1777
    8.5C from the 4th in 1821
    7.5C from the 25th in 1858

    It will be interesting to see how the drop from yesterday to today compares!

    8.2C drop

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put that into some perspective, the coldest day of December 2010 (the 20th, -7.0C) "only" managed to become the eighth coldest December day on record.

    It's interesting to compare to last March. Last year we saw the warmest March day ever, the first ever to exceed 15C. A year later and a day in the same month comes along and registers a mean which is 19C lower.

    (For those who are interested, the only colder March days were the 3rd in 1965 (-3.9C), the 6th in 1786 (-4.7C), and the 13th in 1845 (-6.5C).)

    Edited by Relativistic
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