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Roger J Smith

March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

-2.6 to the 2nd

7.2 below the 61 to 90 average

7.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month -2.6 to the 2nd

Something tells me that will zip up this week.

However have we ever had a 7.5c below average in here apart from the 1st march.

If we got the should have been extra week or two cold spell then the March average would have been very impressive.

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Posted (edited)

Currently on our longest stretch of subzero CET days since January 2013. Yesterday was the fifth such consecutive day; January 2013 managed eight such consecutive days from the 16th to the 23rd. Before that, February 2012 also managed a five-day spell (8th to the 12th), and 2010 managed three such spells that equalled/beat the January 2013 run (3rd to the 10th January, 26th November to the 4th of December, and 17th to the 27th of December).

Edited by Relativistic
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Suspect the first three days of March will end up the coldest since 1986 at least, gosh might have to go all the way back to 1947. However, the cold spell is coming to an end today, and CET maxima values tomorrow will around 5-8 degrees. Also mins in the days ahead don't look especially cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if the CET come this time next week is hovering somewhere in the 4s, which will cancel out the very cold start.

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Tables of forecasts are posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

There were 76 temperature forecasts (median 4.6) and 59 precip forecasts (median 75.0 mm).

The median was rising in value for the temperatures towards the end of the entries. However, the highest forecast received after LG's obligatory 12.0 was 7.1 C which is not much above the recent 30-year normals. We have three forecasts lower than the coldest March (1.0 in 1674) although one is outrageously low (-12.4). So we have a range of forecasts which is perhaps three times the observed range over 360 years. 

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Posted (edited)

-1.6 to the 3rd

6.2 below the 61 to 90 average

6.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month -1.6 to the 3rd

Edited by Summer Sun
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22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Suspect the first three days of March will end up the coldest since 1986 at least, gosh might have to go all the way back to 1947. However, the cold spell is coming to an end today, and CET maxima values tomorrow will around 5-8 degrees. Also mins in the days ahead don't look especially cold, so I wouldn't be surprised if the CET come this time next week is hovering somewhere in the 4s, which will cancel out the very cold start.

At -1.6C to the third, the opening three days are provisionally the third coldest on record, behind only 1965 (-2.1C) and 1947 (-1.8C). Even with a healthy upward correction of 0.6C we'd still be joint third on the list with 1890 (-1.0C). The period 1st-3rd March 1986 is well down the list (-0.1C, pushing it into 12th place unless a hugely drastic upward correction occurs this month).

Also worth noting that yesterday's mean is currently down as 0.3C, which would break our run of subzero CET days starting on the 26th. If we're lucky a downward correction will extend us to a sixth day.

I would love to see a big downward correction for the 1st to give us an outright record (as opposed to a joint one), and to put us in with a chance of recording an exceptionnaly rare -4C (or lower) March mean. I honestly thought the mean would be lower than the -3.5C it's currently down as. The 28th secured an upward correction of 0.2C, so as things stand I'm not too hopeful.

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-0.5c here to the 3rd, 4.7c below the 1981-2010 average.

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-0.5 to the 4th

5.0 below the 61 to 90 average

5.3 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month -1.6 to the 3rd

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With a value of -0.5C for the first 4 days, the remaining 27 days of the month already have to average 7.5C just to reach the 1981-2010 average.

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Sunny Sheffield at -1.9C -6.6 degrees below normal. Rainfall 7.6mm 11.9% of average.

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Models show a fairly cold pattern despite the end of the bitterly cold spell, and it may take a while to escape the realm of 2 to 3 C in the running CET, if we do at all.

In other news, I was able to obtain the February EWP (49.6 mm) and the scoring is posted in the competition thread. 

So let's say the CET is 1.0 after tomorrow (not a very firm estimate) then your CET forecast of x will require a mean of x' to reach the target ...

YOUR CET ____ 7th to 31st

___ 0.0 _______--0.24

___ 1.0 _______ 1.0

___ 2.0 _______ 2.24

___ 3.0 _______ 3.48 

___ 4.0 _______ 4.72

___ 5.0 _______ 5.96

___ 6.0 _______ 7.2

___ 7.0 _______ 8.44

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Posted (edited)

0.7 to the 5th

3.9 below the 61 to 90 average

4.3 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 0.7 to the 5th

Edited by Summer Sun
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1.3c here to the 5th, 3.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted (edited)

Sunny Sheffield at -1C -5.6C below normal. Rainfall  17.6mm 27.6% of normal. A very mild weekend should cancel some of cold spell out. GFS looks fairly mild after that so unless it changes expect a rapid rise and the very cold first four days to be cancelled out very rapidly.

Edited by The PIT

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)
1.5C to the 6th... -3.7   (5.7: -0.6)
2.0C to the 7th... -3.4   (5.1: -1.5)
2.4C to the 8th... -3.2   (4.7: -1.8)
2.5C to the 9th... -3.1   (3.9: -2.4)
3.0C to the 10th... -2.8   (6.9: +0.0)
3.5C to the 11th... -2.3   (8.6: +2.0)
3.8C to the 12th... -2.1   (6.8: +0.8)
4.0C to the 13th... -1.8   (7.4: +1.1)
4.3C to the 14th... -1.6   (7.4: +0.8)
4.4C to the 15th... -1.6   (5.7: -1.3)

As is inevitable given the cold start, the CET is rising and will continue to rise quickly for the foreseeable future. Temperatures are set to return to above average values after the 10th, maintaining the upward momentum.

OaCQAtX.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Incredible how quickly it could rise from here, question now is how high can it go before a possible correction down as we head towards Easter week. Or will the month be remembered for record breaking cold start, very mild end?

Edited by snowray

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Posted (edited)

1.5 to the 6th

3.2 below the 61 to 90 average

3.7 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 1.5 to the 6th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Sunny Sheffield up to -0.1C -4.7C below normal, Rainfall 17.7mm 27.8% of normal.

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1.9 to the 7th

2.8 below the 61 to 90 average

3.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 1.5 to the 6th

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Things looking milder still today, with the CET catching the 61-90 rolling average by the 16th (5.2C), which is still 0.9C below the 81-10 average (6.1C).

Will do a full update for the 12z.

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2.1c here to the 7th, 2.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

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Based on the 12z GFS...

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)
2.3C to the 8th... -3.2    (4.8: -1.7)
2.7C to the 9th... -2.9    (5.6: -0.7)
3.2C to the 10th... -2.5    (8.3: +1.4)
3.6C to the 11th... -2.2    (7.6: +1.0)
4.0C to the 12th... -1.8    (8.4: +2.4)
4.1C to the 13th... -1.8    (5.2: -1.1)
4.3C to the 14th... -1.6    (7.2: +0.6)
4.5C to the 15th... -1.5    (7.4: +0.4)
4.7C to the 16th... -1.3    (7.6: +0.7)
4.8C to the 17th... -1.3    (6.4: -1.1)

Not as mild as earlier today, more in line with yesterday's 12z. Nothing exceptionally mild on the horizon, but enough to keep the CET climbing.

yexU674.jpg

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Sunny Sheffield at 0.5C -4.2C below average. Rainfall 20.3mm 31.9% of average

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Up to 4°C here, as of yesterday. It'll be higher after today's update. I'm running 3.1°C below the MetO derived average for this area.

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Posted (edited)

2.3 to the 8th

2.5 below the 61 to 90 average

3.2 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 2.3 to the 8th

Edited by Summer Sun
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