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Roger J Smith

March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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 Going to go mad and go for 1.8°C and 84.8 mm please. 

Edited by Chris.R
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5.0c for me please.

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I'll go bang on 5.0C and 85mm please.  

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I will post complete tables including late entries on the 4th, up to the deadline these are the forecasts submitted (just the numbers) ...

.... (*indicates two forecasts at this value, multiple * indicates three or more)

 

CET temps _ 72 entries 

12.0  7.1  6.8  6.4  6.3  6.1* 5.9  5.8* 5.7* 5.6* 5.5* 5.4  5.3* 5.2** 5.1* 5.0*** 4.9  4.8** 4.7 4.6** (median 4.6)

4.5** 4.4* 4.3  4.2** 4.1* 4.0* 3.9** 3.8* 3.5  3.3  3.2  3.1  3.0  2.8**  2.7  2.5*  2.3  2.1  1.8*  0.6  0.0  -12.4 

 

EWP _ 56 entries

27  29  35  48  49*  50  52  53  55**** 57  61*  63  65**  69  70*  75** 76 (median 76.5)

77*  77.9  79  80*  81  82  83  84*  84.8  85*  86**  90  92  95  96  112.5*  115.5  120  200  357

 

One of these entries in both categories appears to be spam, not sure whether we will count it or ignore it (will confer with J10). 

Without it, temp median stays the same and precip median goes to 76 mm.

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With all the regional excitement, I forgot to post my entry!

6.7°C
66mm

Thank you please!

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3.8C and 70mm please.

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Posted (edited)

Late coldest start to spring ever? 

3.8c thanks and 69mm

Edited by Daniel*
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4.3c and 72mm please

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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2017 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN _________ CET date ___ CET cum

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.9
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.8
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... ... 5.0

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... ... 5.2
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.4
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... ... 5.5
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... 5.6
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 5.7

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.8
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... ... 5.8
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... ... 5.9
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.9
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... ... 6.0

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.1
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... 6.1
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... 6.2
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931) ... ... -1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945) ... ... -0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... ... 6.4
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... ... 6.4

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ..... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.4
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... ... 6.4
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... ... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... ... 6.5 __ record was 13.4 in 1920

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... ... ... . -0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... ... 6.6

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Did we record the lowest March 1 mean CET value yesterday? We managed the coldest March maximum on record, which is very very impressive, given there have been some impressively cold March spells in the past. 

 

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3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Did we record the lowest March 1 mean CET value yesterday? We managed the coldest March maximum on record, which is very very impressive, given there have been some impressively cold March spells in the past. 

 

Joint lowest, provisionally. Down as -3.5C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2018

 

The provisional maximum was -0.8C, edging the previous record of -0.7C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_max_est_2018

 

Obviously this is all subject to change come the end of the month.

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-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

8.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

8.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

I went for 5.9C, that -3.5C on the first day means the rest of month would have to average 6.2 to get to my value. Shows how much impact one abnormal value can have. I think the last day of February 2018 took off 0.3C.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

8.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

Provisionally the coldest start to a month since January 1979, which had a CET of -3.8 to the 1st.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Commissioner Gordon said:

Was yesterday’s maximum a record low for March?

Provisionally, yes. It's down as -0.8C vs. -0.7C on 6th March 1942. To be honest I'm surprised it wasn't lower. Here in Birmingham I'm not sure the temperature creeped above -4C.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

8.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

Lol, I think your ability to predict the future needs some work. You're going to be way off!

Seriously though, I've asked twice before and been blanked on both occasions, but as designated CET updater person could you please quote the current low alongside the current high? It makes no sense to favour one over the other. Both posts got a number of likes so it seems as if others agree with me.

Edited by Relativistic
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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

-3.5 to the 1st

8.1 below the 61 to 90 average

8.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

 

Of course, the bottom part shouldn't be showing

:oops::oops:

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4 hours ago, Stationary Front said:

Relativistic, the lowest recorded max yesterday was -5.2 in South Wales.

I was actually talking specifically about the CET, but thank you anyway for the statistic!

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-2.6 to the 2nd

7.2 below the 61 to 90 average

7.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month -2.6 to the 2nd

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