March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Gael_Force]

With the way it felt, I thought I would be much further adrift than that.

[damianslaw]

Not expecting a rise today, and no doubt with a downward correction a finish of 4.7 degrees looks most likely. A cold March. Many a milder January in recent years.

[Weather-history]

Looks like it is 4.9 in the rankings

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[Stargazer]

24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like it is 4.9 in the rankings

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Just loaded that page and don't see March 2018 yet.

Can anyone remind me why the final reading tends to be adjusted downwards most often?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like it is 4.9 in the rankings

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

It shares the same mean CET for March then as 2006, 1986, 1971, 1925, 1877, 1858, 1838, 1810 and 1757.

[Relativistic]

I suspect the 4.9C figure is not the final figure. The mean using the provisional values is 4.9C, and that's now been removed from the monthly rankings. Possibly posted by accident.

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I suspect the 4.9C figure is not the final figure. The mean using the provisional values is 4.9C, and that's now been removed from the monthly rankings. Possibly posted by accident.

Its down as 4.93 in the official daily figures

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

[Relativistic]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Its down as 4.93 in the official daily figures

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

The data aren't there when I click the link.

Edit: Min. and max. data seem to be there. If they're correct then the daily record for the 1st looks to have been broken (-3.8C, previous record was -3.5C in 1785). The March maximum record looks to have been smashed as well (-1.2C, previous record was -0.7C on 6th March 1942).

Edited April 1, 2018 by Relativistic

[Stargazer]

This is what I see when I load the page - only 2 months of data so far. Looks like the March figures haven't reached Reading yet

[Edit - just updated after some determined page refreshing!]

Edited April 1, 2018 by Stargazer

[snowray]

About 3 hours ago there was a March figure of 4.9c, but they have taken this down it would seem. So someone at the Met office is working on Easters day then?!

[Weather-history]

18th March: -1.1C 

I think that's the coldest CET daily mean for the second half of March since 1899.

[Weather-history]

Looks like the wettest March for England and Wales since 1981, could be in the top 10 wettest Marches on record as well.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Stargazer said:

This is what I see when I load the page - only 2 months of data so far. Looks like the March figures haven't reached Reading yet

[Edit - just updated after some determined page refreshing!]

How very strange, the data have disappeared again!

57 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

18th March: -1.1C 

I think that's the coldest CET daily mean for the second half of March since 1899.

Yes, very cold; -1.1C puts it in second place for that particular date (18th March 1853 was -1.3C). 

[Dancerwithwings]

My apologies for seeming a little dim but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

My apologies for seeming a little dim but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart

Yes I'd like to know that too!

[Dancerwithwings]

I can see it in the overall ranks https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

rank    jan        feb        mar 
136   2.9 1885   3.5 1677   4.9 1877   
137   2.9 1919   3.5 1680   4.9 1925   
138   2.9 1954   3.5 1685   4.9 1971   
139   2.9 1966   3.5 1710   4.9 1986   
140   3.0 1659   3.5 1810   4.9 2006  

rank    jan        feb        mar        
141   3.0 1670   3.5 1836   4.9 2018  
142   3.0 1675   3.5 1941   5.0 1663   
143   3.0 1677   3.6 1742   5.0 1664  
144   3.0 1693   3.6 1749   5.0 1665   
145   3.0 1712   3.6 1753   5.0 1668   

Edited April 1, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[Norrance]

34 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

My apologies for seeming a little dim but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart

Thats only got Jan and Feb hasn't it?  5.26 and 2.93 respectively.

Edited April 1, 2018 by Norrance

[Relativistic]

36 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

My apologies for seeming a little dim but how do you work out the fig of 4.93c from that chart

Ignore what I said previously. Probably just best to wait for the official data, which seem to be appearing and disappearing at random at the minute!

On another note, I still can't see the 4.9C figure in the monthly rankings?

Edited April 1, 2018 by Relativistic

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

If you take the mean of the minimum and maximum for each date, and then then take the mean of all of those values, then presumably it comes to 4.93C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_2018

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_max_2018

 

On another note, I still can't see the 4.9C figure in the monthly rankings?

Yes and thanks....Max & Min to find the mean......but max and min charts are identical....I think ill leave it 

[Relativistic]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes and thanks....Max & Min to find the mean......but max and min charts are identical....I think ill leave it 

Apologies, this link should work for the minima.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_min_2018

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 3.7C -2.6C below average. Average max 6.9C -3.0C below normal. Average min 0.5C -2.3C below average. Rainfall 138.3mm 217.1% of average Strange to have such a cold month a wet month as well. 2nd wettest for us on record since 1955

[Norrance]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Finished 4.4c here, 1.4c below the 1981-2010 average. 72mm of rainfall.

[Weather-history]

On 17/03/2018 at 09:46, BornFromTheVoid said:

After a quick look, the top 3 largest drops for the CET from one day to the next in March are:

8.5C from the 28th in 1777
8.5C from the 4th in 1821
7.5C from the 25th in 1858

It will be interesting to see how the drop from yesterday to today compares!

8.2C drop

[Relativistic]

Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put that into some perspective, the coldest day of December 2010 (the 20th, -7.0C) "only" managed to become the eighth coldest December day on record.

It's interesting to compare to last March. Last year we saw the warmest March day ever, the first ever to exceed 15C. A year later and a day in the same month comes along and registers a mean which is 19C lower.

(For those who are interested, the only colder March days were the 3rd in 1965 (-3.9C), the 6th in 1786 (-4.7C), and the 13th in 1845 (-6.5C).)

Edited April 1, 2018 by Relativistic