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March 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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March CET averages and extremes for CET temp contest (EWP contest information below this section)

... all years 1981 to 2017 are shown in this table (bold print, red or blue)

15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.7 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)
 8.4 ... 4th warmest March (1997)
 8.3 ... 5th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
 8.2 ... 8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)

 

 7.9 ...1981, 1991, 1998

 7.7 ...1994

 7.6 ... 2000, 2002, 2014 
 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2003 

 7.4 ... 1999 

 7.2 ... 2005, 2007 

 7.0 ... 2009  

 6.8 ... mean of 1988-2017

 6.7 ... 1993, 2011 

 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 21st century (2001-2017)

 6.5 ... 2004

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988, 2015

 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

 6.1 ... 1982, 2008, 2010

 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016
 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990

 5.6 ... 1995
 5.34... mean of all 359 years (1659-2017)
 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) and 2001
 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 

 4.9 ... 1986, 2006
 4.7 ... 1984, 1985

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)
 4.5 ... 1996

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 1962 ... Coldest March of 20th century

 2.7 ... 2013 ... Coldest March since 1892 ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-0.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in recent years (4th, 2006)

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 53 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Wednesday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Saturday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

____________________________________________________________

 

Optional March 2018 EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification now from UK Met Office site, scores for Dec to Jan revised and Feb will be based on that source for verification. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.2 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

These are the averages and extremes from both sources (the Met Office only goes back to 1910 so anything more extreme from the Hadley site is mentioned here. The averages are now from the Met Office data).

163.7 __ maximum (1910 to 2017) in 1947 (177.5 in Hadley data, max 1766-2017)

156.3 __ maximum since 1981 (was 1981) (160.4 in Hadley data, 2nd 1766-2017)

 70.0 __ mean 1981-2010

 62.5 __ mean 1988-2017

 20.9 __ minimum since 1981 (was 2011) (22.3 mm in Hadley data, 20th lowest 1766-2017)

 10.7 __ minimum (1910 to 2017) in 1929 (8.0 mm in Hadley data, 2nd lowest 1766-2017)

 05.6 __ minimum _ 1781 _ (1766 to 2017 from Hadley) 

Note: according to the Met Office site, no March since 1988 has surpassed 100 mm, the closest being 2008 (99.3 mm).

 

You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

 

 

 

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Now that the dust seems to have firmly settled, it's worth reiterating the daily record for the 1st (-3.8C). Not only was it a daily record, but also the fourth coldest March day on record. To put tha

-3.5 to the 1st 8.1 below the 61 to 90 average 8.5 below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________

My impression is that a large part of the reset from provisional to final CET is to remove values for max and (more often) min that are outside the boundaries of the 24-hour calendar day and to introd

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2.1C and 35mm of precipitation.

If the model outputs continue as they are we could very well see a sub zero CET by the tenth. It would take a heck of an effort to even take the month outside of the top ten coldest and I suspect that whilst milder weather might arrive later in the month I suspect this will not be enough to stop this March potentially being one of the coldest we have seen.

Plus at this point it almost feels worth it going big on the level of cold. :D

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I'm dreaming of a White Easter but sadly... 12C  :(  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

200mm of Atlantic garbage.

 
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Let’s imagine February won’t finish below 2.8C

 

Let’s imagine March will.

 

Both very plausible events I would consider, going by the latest models.

 

If that ends up the case, I believe we will be in a unique position from April, never before experienced going back to when records began, whereby the two coldest  months we previously experienced were both Marches!

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