Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

[NickR]

ICON seems to me to be terrible at factoring in convective snow. In fact, I don't think it does at all, looking at those charts.

Let's hope the Euro4 model isn't accurate. Everything else appears to have shifted it north.

[garylaverick]

Looks quite nice, it seems the passing of the low tomorrow signals the start of the proper convective showers.

[NickR]

7 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

Looks quite nice, it seems the passing of the low tomorrow signals the start of the proper convective showers.

Hoping for a slight move north so we get a direct hit. Either way, I agree: today was never going to be our primary convective day. I'm back from the picket line, so at least I've got time to enjoy the analysis and radar watching!

[snowmackem]

Just looking at the radar. Ho hum, all those showers flying towards Tynside off shore and somebody decides to builds a damn snowshield two miles out at sea lol

[NickR]

3 minutes ago, snowmackem said:

Just looking at the radar. Ho hum, all those showers flying towards Tynside off shore and somebody decides to builds a damn snowshield two miles out at sea lol

True. But you have to go a long way south before the showers are meaningful enough to amount to anything.

[Summer Sun]

Met office forecast would suggest tomorrow and Wednesday will see the best chance of heavier snow

[Stozzy]

Are these showers gonna pick up this aft ? Light showers / flurries at moment 

[snowmackem]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Met office forecast would suggest tomorrow and Wednesday will see the best chance of heavier snow

Think you are right SS, I expect Wednesday to be the most productive snow-wise this week, with the proviso of course that Friday could well trump it lol

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Are these showers gonna pick up this aft ? Light showers / flurries at moment 

Can't see much until late this evening at the earliest

[Boro Snow]

Well I have to say I was expecting more than a flake every few minutes also the Temp is currently 3.2c higher than forecast

[gordonm]

yep, all of the region is covered with precip, but no one is getting anything!!!

[Dahonis]

Our Met guy is going for 14:00 to 23:55 low likelihood/ Medium impact for North East today.

Tues and Wednesday again low likelihood/Medium impact for us, but Amber warning?

He is based at the Met Office.

 

[P-M]

Anyone looking at precip charts needs to take them with a massive dose of salt.  They can't predict how heavy the convective showers are going to be. Remember November 2010? Well that will tell you we got shed loads more than what was predicted.

 

So, let's take the set up. A frigid easterly creating convective snow showers off the North Sea. We are in a prime position for excessive snowfall in some parts not including the feature for tomorrow to move in off the Sea.  

 

Happy days and happy radar and lamppost Watching peeps! 

Edited February 26, 2018 by P-M

[NickR]

2 minutes ago, Dahonis said:

Our Met guy is going for 14:00 to 23:55 low likelihood/ Medium impact for North East today.

Tues and Wednesday again low likelihood/Medium impact for us, but Amber warning?

He is based at the Met Office.

 

Well that's pretty disheartening given our expectations. :/

To be honest, the predictions for this area have got steadily less good over time. Last week models were giving us 2-3 feet! They are now giving us a maximum of a foot.

If that forecast is accurate, then we're looking at a disappointment.

[Freezing-Point]

Shower activity really quietning down out at sea.  I think it will be after dark before anything of significance arrives now

Edited February 26, 2018 by Freezing-Point

[P-M]

Just now, Freezing-Point said:

Shower activity really quietning down out at sea.  I think it will be after dark before anything of significance arrives now

Always was this PM onwards really but they did say a few flurries which has been correct so far in places.

 

I can't wait until late afternoon and evening to see if the snow machine begins in earnest. I reckon this is going to be a memorable event and something we've been craving for years (if you like cold and snow that is)

[P-M]

3 minutes ago, NickR said:

Well that's pretty disheartening given our expectations. :/

To be honest, the predictions for this area have got steadily less good over time. Last week models were giving us 2-3 feet! They are now giving us a maximum of a foot.

If that forecast is accurate, then we're looking at a disappointment.

Seriously mate there's nothing to be so depressed about it's the best set up we've had in years ??

[Dahonis]

I just didn't understand why give an Amber warning if it's just of low likelihood? Unless they are unsure of convection?????

I'm still learning!

[Freezing-Point]

3 minutes ago, Dahonis said:

I just didn't understand why give an Amber warning if it's just of low likelihood? Unless they are unsure of convection?????

I'm still learning!

The exact locations that will be hit are impossible to predict until is actually happening.  They give Amber warning for regions where they are certain somewhere will be hit, but other areas in close proximity may receive little in comparison.  You do need a bit of luck.   A streamer set up is the perfect example of this, where a band of showers organises into a line.  If you are under it there can be prolonged snow of hours on end, but 20 miles away you can get virtually nothing.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Freezing-Point

[P-M]

Just now, Dahonis said:

I just didn't understand why give an Amber warning if it's just of low likelihood? Unless they are unsure of convection?????

I'm still learning!

Because their computer models are showing the potential for some deep and disruptive snowfall. As it's this soon ahead i.e Wednesday then I'd say we have a high chance of something like they're saying.

 

As is the nature with convective showers not everywhere will see them but in set ups like this there's a tendency for showers to become aligned and stream across the same areas or merge into bigger areas of snowfall. The showers become a bit backlogged as they hit the coast forcing them into lines etc 

[Summer Sun]

NMM high res for the week ahead

 

[garylaverick]

You've got to remember the flow is still just getting going. We're currently under 1037mb and 548 DAM air which is classed as relatively stable. If you look at where the bulk of the showers are forming they are under 1030mb and 532 DAM presently.

This time tomorrow we're under 1030mb and 532 DAM, and come the early hours of Wednesday that's dropped to 1026mb and 520 DAM, a lot more unstable, and this should be where the convective gets going proper.

Before that though we've hopefully got the feature from Norway to look forward to. It's showing up on satellite and radar now so we can start to track it.

http://www.stirimeteo.com/europe-rain-radar/

http://meteocentre.com/satellite/imagery.php?map=_vis&anim=0&refresh=450&area=uk&lang=fr

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, garylaverick said:

You've got to remember the flow is still just getting going. We're currently under 1037mb and 548 DAM air which is classed as relatively stable. If you look at where the bulk of the showers are forming they are under 1030mb and 532 DAM presently.

This time tomorrow we're under 1030mb and 532 DAM, and come the early hours of Wednesday that's dropped to 1026mb and 520 DAM, a lot more unstable, and this should be where the convective gets going proper.

Before that though we've hopefully got the feature from Norway to look forward to. It's showing up on satellite and radar now so we can start to track it.

http://www.stirimeteo.com/europe-rain-radar/

http://meteocentre.com/satellite/imagery.php?map=_vis&anim=0&refresh=450&area=uk&lang=fr

Very true

[tynevalleysnow]

Tomorrow night looks tasty. Starts at 17:00 and doesn’t change till 18:00 Thursday 

[Freezing-Point]

4 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Tomorrow night looks tasty. Starts at 17:00 and doesn’t change till 18:00 Thursday 

Good chance of you getting snowed in up there